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Madison Bumgarner 2019 Outlook


Big_Trav
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I'm a little befuddled with the projections on MadBum this year. Steamer has him coming in just out of the top 25 (#26) in SP rankings, and ESPN is projecting him as the 36th overall SP in my points league.  The guy is still only 29 years old, and while he does have a fair amount of innings on his arm, I think people are selling him short because of a pair of freak injuries over the last two years. His K numbers have been slightly down, and he needs to get his control back, but I don't think it's out of the question to expect top 10-15 SP contributions out of him.

 

ESPN has his current ADP at 86 amongst guys like David Price, Jameson Taillon, and Foltynewicz. I'll be buying at that price.

 

I'll Project: 190 IP, 3.2 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 180 K. Wins could be somewhat difficult to come by, but should be fine in QS.

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11 minutes ago, Big_Trav said:

I'm a little befuddled with the projections on MadBum this year. Steamer has him coming in just out of the top 25 (#26) in SP rankings, and ESPN is projecting him as the 36th overall SP in my points league.  The guy is still only 29 years old, and while he does have a fair amount of innings on his arm, I think people are selling him short because of a pair of freak injuries over the last two years. His K numbers have been slightly down, and he needs to get his control back, but I don't think it's out of the question to expect top 10-15 SP contributions out of him.

 

ESPN has his current ADP at 86 amongst guys like David Price, Jameson Taillon, and Foltynewicz. I'll be buying at that price.

 

I'll Project: 190 IP, 3.2 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 180 K. Wins could be somewhat difficult to come by, but should be fine in QS.

There are some numbers last year that suggest some reasons for concerns. 

 

* Home Road splits - its pretty much a given he will be moved at some point - Giants were probably hoping for a haul, but the same reasons that have the fantasy rankings concerned also have the Real GM's reluctant to overpay for this guy.  That said, he will likely be on the move, which his Road ERA last year was near 5, it was 4.97.  

 

* Hard contact rate was the highest of his career in 2018.  

 

I think somewhere in the 30's is probably about right. 

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I agree with parrothead. #'s have trended down 2 seasons in a row. Maybe it's due to the injuries he had, maybe it's due to just losing stuff. I don't know but I won't be making the gamble most likely. I would rather draft Folty or Taillon at that spot, if all 3 are available.

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1 hour ago, sngehl01 said:

I agree with parrothead. #'s have trended down 2 seasons in a row. Maybe it's due to the injuries he had, maybe it's due to just losing stuff. I don't know but I won't be making the gamble most likely. I would rather draft Folty or Taillon at that spot, if all 3 are available.

His fastball has dipped a tick or two down but he was not a huge velo guy to begin with - this guy threw a lot of innings in their title years.   2014 World Series was one of the most amazing series long performances by a starting pitcher I have seen, especially in this era, but it takes its toll. 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, parrothead said:

His fastball has dipped a tick or two down but he was not a huge velo guy to begin with - this guy threw a lot of innings in their title years.   2014 World Series was one of the most amazing series long performances by a starting pitcher I have seen, especially in this era, but it takes its toll. 

 

 

 

 

Rotochamp has his fastball velo at 90.9, which is the same as it was in 2012. Like you touched on, he's never been a high velo guy so this doesn't have the same factors as a Felix Hernandez situation. As far as the road ERA goes, if you take a deeper dive and look into places that he's pitching more than just one or two times every 3 years in (Dodger Stadium, PETCO, Chase Field), his ERA is much more respectable.  

 

I'm not refuting that his '17 and '18 stats weren't bad, because they definitely were. But this looks like a strong case of recency-bias.

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I think it went up a little and then back down, but could be wrong. 

 

Bottom line is that his hard contact rate was way up, so whatever he was throwing up there and at whatever speed, it sure as heck was not fooling anyone.   Last year the road numbers were pretty consistently bad, and again your point is perhaps worth looking at on the road if he were going to be in SF long-term, but most are I think baking into their evaluations of him that he will be dealt and its unlikely that Giants would deal him within the division.  

 

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The way I'm interpreting it, you feel that he is only capable of posting good numbers at AT&T. My point was that regardless of who or where he is traded (if he's traded), he's shown that in places he pitches relatively frequently (Dodger Stadium, PETCO, Chase Field) he can be effective.

 

The hard contact and walks were scary, but missing spots is generally a good indicator that a pitcher doesn't have a good feel for his pitches; usually a side effect of rust because of an injury. Probably even more true for a guy as methodical as MadBum.

Edited by Big_Trav
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31 minutes ago, Big_Trav said:

The way I'm interpreting it, you feel that he is only capable of posting good numbers at AT&T. My point was that regardless of who or where he is traded (if he's traded), he's shown that in places he pitches relatively frequently (Dodger Stadium, PETCO, Chase Field) he can be effective.

 

The hard contact and walks were scary, but missing spots is generally a good indicator that a pitcher doesn't have a good feel for his pitches; usually a side effect of rust because of an injury. Probably even more true for a guy as methodical as MadBum.

What’s AT&T?

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37 minutes ago, Big_Trav said:

The way I'm interpreting it, you feel that he is only capable of posting good numbers at AT&T. My point was that regardless of who or where he is traded (if he's traded), he's shown that in places he pitches relatively frequently (Dodger Stadium, PETCO, Chase Field) he can be effective.

 

The hard contact and walks were scary, but missing spots is generally a good indicator that a pitcher doesn't have a good feel for his pitches; usually a side effect of rust because of an injury. Probably even more true for a guy as methodical as MadBum.

He made 10 starts at home, threw 66 innings and had a 1.63ERA and gave up 3HR.  On the Road, he had 11 starts and gave up 11HR in 63 innings and had a 4.97ERA. 

 

In his road starts it was 1 or 2 starts in multiple parks - 

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17 minutes ago, parrothead said:

He made 10 starts at home, threw 66 innings and had a 1.63ERA and gave up 3HR.  On the Road, he had 11 starts and gave up 11HR in 63 innings and had a 4.97ERA. 

 

In his road starts it was 1 or 2 starts in multiple parks - 

Keep in mind the sample size  and the majority of struggles, and subsequent bloated ERA, came within hitters havens (Colorado: 6.55, Cincinnati: 7.50, and Milwaukee: 7.50) or against teams that have perennially given him trouble. (Oakland > Career 4.5 ERA). 

 

His fastball certainly was far too hittable,  however the velocity remained in tact, hovering around 91.  The hard contact rate and career worst walk rate (7.8%) don't inspire confidence, but a move to a front-running contender (Phillies/Brewers/Braves), along with a peril free Spring Training, and  strong secondary offerings leaves me optimistic that he can bounce back in a contract year. 

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I tend to fall on the side that he's been beaten down a bit too much in rankings. That's primarily because his health has been a continuous question mark the past two seasons. I really, really hope he comes in to spring training healthy ("best shape of his life!" even) and stays that way so we can see where he is. I suppose it's possible he's on a steady decline, but I'll need to see a long stretch of healthy ineffectiveness to believe it.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/28/2019 at 7:53 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

Hard to get a read on.  Stats are going the wrong direction, but tough to tell whether that's age or injury related.  This is either the last buy low opportunity for a while, or the beginning of the end.  

 

Unless he gets traded to Houston - in which case he will promptly have the best year of his career. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

On 1/17/2019 at 12:30 PM, parrothead said:

I would rather draft Folty or Taillon at that spot, if all 3 are available.

 

No Folty for me, but will take Taillon over MadBum.   Taillon should be way higher than 30s, but it's hard to see MadBum go downhill.  I would take MadBum over Folty six days a week. Still, I would like to think Bum will be around 26, but his arrow has been pointing down and agree about his injuries which have taken their toll.  He's still got a good attitude such as taking a stand on the opener business.  It's refreshing to hear him speak his mind and just what are the Giants going to do -- take him up on it ;)?  I can see Folty giving way to an opener.

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14 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

If he's healthy, I think he'll be fine. Maybe not back into the elite tier, but still very good.

2 freak injuries. Yes his velo is coming down as his age goes up, but his arm has gotten rest recently. He's 29.

 

 

If he's healthy I expect him to be an excellent SP2. Many point to the velocity drop as an area of concern because of his performances in 2017 and 2018 where he averaged 91.4 mph on his fastball. However, look at his 2016 season statistics where he pitched like an all star while averaging 91.7 mph on his fastball. I don't buy the argument some are making that his dip in velocity is cause for concern. I think we're looking at someone who, while there are many miles on his arm, can still pitch like a teams Ace and be a top 15 SP for fantasy this year. His freak injuries are what caused his stats to slide the last two seasons and those has since healed. 

Edited by BostonCajun
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For where he's going I think you could certainly do worse. It takes players a while to come back from injuries. And this is Bumgarner were talking about, not some meddling middle of the rotation journeyman. These kinds of picks are what can make your draft. Bumgarner is going as an SP2, possibly SP3. For someone who has ace upside, I don't see why you wouldn't take a chance on him that late. Especially when he's only 29 coming off freak injuries, rather than a ton of soft tissue problems.

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