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Jake Bauers 2019 Outlook


AF25
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I stumbled upon this article about Bauers and definitely got me more optimistic about his 2019 season. 15+ SB is real possibility; his HR power could go up as a lefty at Progressive Field. 

 

I will be more than happy to get something like 90/20/90/15 and a .250 BA from him this year as a 1B. With SB being scarce these days, that's value.

 

Thoughts?

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I like him as a player, he was always underrated a bit as a prospect. Felt odd that TB was willing to part with him, esp with what they received in return...that is a bit of a red flag to me. Also feel like he is going to be platooned in CLE--not that it's a big blow to his value, but worth considering for redraft purposes. I think the change in parks certainly helps too...he seemed to make a bunch of hard contact last year, but then had spells where he simply was whiffing at everything.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Jake Bauers 2019 Outlook

With him able to play both corner OF and 1B, even in a platoon situation, I think he will amass more than his share. 400 + AB shouldn't be out of reach. The whiffing in the second half is a concern, and a lot has to do with pitchers adjusting to him. He is a smart player with very good plate discipline, saw him played in Durham and right away traded for him. 

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The other part of the platoon thing is that this is a crazy left-handed lineup--though many of them are switch too...but there might not be an obvious partner for him at 1B either, at least at this point...those are usually spots are plentiful on the FA pile and can be filled out just prior to ST starting. He was pretty awful v southpaws (under .100 BA in almost 100 MLB ABs last year) but he did hit .309/.397/.594 in 68 PAs in AAA v LH last year and .279 in 140 ABs at AAA in 2017. So they might be inclined to let him play daily and figure it out in the bigs too?

Edited by ST. STEVEN
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Where did you see the under .100 BA vs. LHP? I see .176 (not much better) against LHP and .211 against RHP( also not much better). I think all in all, last year's second half was a big learning curve for Bauers. I have not seen any reports, but I'm sure the Indians are working with him to improve from 2018. Pitch recognition, how to hit breaking balls...etc. 

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On 12/12/2018 at 3:55 PM, Khahan said:

Turner, Baez, Acuna.

 

8 hours ago, AF25 said:

I stumbled upon this article about Bauers and definitely got me more optimistic about his 2019 season. 15+ SB is real possibility; his HR power could go up as a lefty at Progressive Field. 

 

I will be more than happy to get something like 90/20/90/15 and a .250 BA from him this year as a 1B. With SB being scarce these days, that's value.

 

Thoughts?

I sm hoping for similar.  I have hin in an AL only at $10. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

He should get plenty of playing time, there's really no other 1B on the roster (unless you count Carlos Santana?). He's worth a dart throw in the late rounds as a back up 1B. 10-15 SB at 1B is pretty rare. If you can accommodate for the power elsewhere, that is a nice little bonus that makes the difference in roto leagues. He was 16/16 counting majors and minors. With a little progression in power department he can easily go 20/15 with a good OBP. I will be keeping my eye on him in Spring Training.

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On 1/21/2019 at 10:21 AM, AF25 said:

I stumbled upon this article about Bauers and definitely got me more optimistic about his 2019 season. 15+ SB is real possibility; his HR power could go up as a lefty at Progressive Field. 

 

I will be more than happy to get something like 90/20/90/15 and a .250 BA from him this year as a 1B. With SB being scarce these days, that's value.

 

Thoughts?

 

Wouldn’t those numbers make him about a top 65ish player? Flip the HR and SB and a few more runs (and of course 40 more points in BA) and you have Benintendi last year. Those are some lofty goals. If he gets 70/17/75/15 I think people should be happy. 

Edited by Sonny_D
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8 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

 

Wouldn’t those numbers make him about a top 65ish player? Flip the HR and SB and a few more runs (and of course 40 more points in BA) and you have Benintendi last year. Those are some lofty goals. If he gets 70/17/75/15 I think people should be happy. 

 

I would say that somewhere in that range but likely a 5-10 spots lower IF he does it in 2019 and we are talking about 2020. The stats I stated in my original post could make Bauer around 65, however, his eligible positions are 1B/OF and his stats won't rank it that high with those two positions and thus the 5-10 spots drop.   However, he is not proven, so he obviously is not being considered even a top 200 player right now. His adp is #250sh at the moment.

 

I was based on the article I posted for his potential stats; his HR should grow some in Progressive Field (that right field can help!). I agree that 180 between R+RBI is lofty, 140-150 R+RBI is a good estimate in an improved lineup. On SB, base on his 2018 50% SB success rate, I don't believe he can be 20 SB in 2019, but a bit improvement in BA and 1 year experience under his belt, he can certainly steal around 15. 

 

I see him as a sleeper.

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  • 1 month later...

Yeah, I think it might be worth pumping the brakes a bit on the SB projections. He's not a good basestealer and never has been. In his MiLB career, he stole 55 bases and was caught 27 times. A 67% success rate won't cut it in the Majors, and that's if he can reach the same 67% rate against Major League catchers. If his percentage falls somewhere between last year's 50 and his minor league career 67, Cleveland will probably throw the red light up on him. I'll be very surprised if he reaches double-digits unless the baserunning light goes on for him. But let's say he gets 10 SBs, is it worth the (hopeful) .250 BA and the sub-20 HR from a CI spot? Eh...probably not unless your lineup is loaded with power and you need to cobble together SBs from somewhere unorthodox. 

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Why did the rays give up on him so soon? They must have not liked something...

Ive heard they soured on his attitude some.  He's kinda dbag-y. 

 

And you have to give to get,  to a certain degree

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8 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Ive heard they soured on his attitude some.  He's kinda dbag-y. 

 

And you have to give to get,  to a certain degree

It might be his ugly attitude or also possibly his .201 batting average last year

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Never underestimate a power hitter that adds stolen bases. SB is hard to find as it is. Last year I had JoRam Segura and a handful of guys that got me 5-12 stolen bases. I didn't lose SB any week except for last. You couldn't use that strategy back in the day. You certainly can now.

 

BTW Cleveland might have led the league in stolen bases last year.

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On 3/12/2019 at 8:57 AM, Flyman75 said:

Yeah, I think it might be worth pumping the brakes a bit on the SB projections. He's not a good basestealer and never has been. In his MiLB career, he stole 55 bases and was caught 27 times. A 67% success rate won't cut it in the Majors, and that's if he can reach the same 67% rate against Major League catchers. If his percentage falls somewhere between last year's 50 and his minor league career 67, Cleveland will probably throw the red light up on him. I'll be very surprised if he reaches double-digits unless the baserunning light goes on for him. But let's say he gets 10 SBs, is it worth the (hopeful) .250 BA and the sub-20 HR from a CI spot? Eh...probably not unless your lineup is loaded with power and you need to cobble together SBs from somewhere unorthodox. 

 

Sub-20 HRs?

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4 hours ago, Markillies said:

is he going to be an everyday LF in CLE?

 

I believe Bauers will play mostly LF but some 1B too; especially considering Santana is the main guy at 1B and there is potential of HRam being picked to go north with the team, and he plays 1B mostly as well. Indians like their players with some positions flexibilities, so as long as Bauers hits, he will be in the lineup. 

He just went 2 for 3 with 1 HR and 5 RBI's today; raising his spring BA to .276 with 2 HR and 2 SB... I like what I see so far and that right field at Progressive can be LHH heaven!

 

Edited by AF25
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8 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

Any Billy Beane types care to convince me that he will hit for .260 or better?

I can’t convince you one way or the other.  Not enough data on him yet.  Right now he’s just a flier who’s projected to hit in a good spot in the lineup, behind elite hitters, in a horrible pitching division.  So as far as late round fliers go, he’s probably a good one.

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