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Jake Bauers 2019 Outlook


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6 minutes ago, Saucy said:

There's some talk of him being on the bubble for the roster in the wake of the CarGo signings? Seems ridiculous but I'd like someone take.

Bauers isn’t going to play OF for Indians.  He’s slated for 1B/DH with Santana, unless Hanley makes team?  I can’t see Cargo and Hanley both making the team though.  He can play OF, but they already had Martin, Naquin, Allen, Luplow, and now Cargo for OF.  He’ll find a way to regular at bats, most of those names I just typed above are losers.

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2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Bauers isn’t going to play OF for Indians.  He’s slated for 1B/DH with Santana, unless Hanley makes team?  I can’t see Cargo and Hanley both making the team though.  He can play OF, but they already had Martin, Naquin, Allen, Luplow, and now Cargo for OF.  He’ll find a way to regular at bats, most of those names I just typed above are losers.

Francona literally said on the radio today Bauers is one of the outfielders they are looking at to see what works. Also mentioned Luplow and Naquin.

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7 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Francona literally said on the radio today Bauers is one of the outfielders they are looking at to see what works. Also mentioned Luplow and Naquin.

Who’s going to play 1B and DH?  I would assume Hanley at DH and Santana at 1B?  I guess they want the geriatric boys this year.  That lineup will be April stream worthy if Hanley and Cargo are holding down spots.  

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20 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Who’s going to play 1B and DH?  I would assume Hanley at DH and Santana at 1B?  I guess they want the geriatric boys this year.  That lineup will be April stream worthy if Hanley and Cargo are holding down spots.  

No clue but I get the feeling it will be very fluid at first. Doubt Hanley will play every day. 

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1 minute ago, Magoo said:

No clue but I get the feeling it will be very fluid at first. Doubt Hanley will play every day. 

Sounds like a mess then.  He’s going pretty late in most drafts, so the price to admission isn’t really that steep.  Indians got a conglomerate of mediocre players competiting for like 5-6 spots.

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The BA will be the big thing this year...If he can keep a .250 / .260 BA this year and not fall into that .230 and under range...He will be a steal.

 

I think considering where he's being drafted, he could help owners get to the ship with his upside. He's one of those guys who really does have 20/10 upside.

 

Prediction (regular): .245 BA, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 7 SB

Prediction (upside):  .275 BA, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 12 SB

 

If he does make it to that 12-15 SB zone....He'll likely be a 12 SB / 8 CS kind of guys.

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1 minute ago, CORTEz said:

The BA will be the big thing this year...If he can keep a .250 / .260 BA this year and not fall into that .230 and under range...He will be a steal.

 

I think considering where he's being drafted, he could help owners get to the ship with his upside. He's one of those guys who really does have 20/10 upside.

 

Prediction (regular): .245 BA, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 7 SB

Prediction (upside):  .275 BA, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 12 SB

 

If he does make it to that 12-15 SB zone....He'll likely be a 12 SB / 8 CS kind of guys.

 

I was kind of surprised all the projection systems are pretty confident Bauers will get double-digit steals

 

Heck, ZiPS, Steamer and Depth Charts give him 16, 15, and 15, respectively. 

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2 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

The BA will be the big thing this year...If he can keep a .250 / .260 BA this year and not fall into that .230 and under range...He will be a steal.

 

I think considering where he's being drafted, he could help owners get to the ship with his upside. He's one of those guys who really does have 20/10 upside.

 

Prediction (regular): .245 BA, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 7 SB

Prediction (upside):  .275 BA, 25 HR, 70 RBI, 12 SB

 

If he does make it to that 12-15 SB zone....He'll likely be a 12 SB / 8 CS kind of guys.

Side note, i just changed from a net SB league to just SBs. It is so freeing.

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Yeah...I think the SB is what's going to keep him fantasy relevant...But he's also one of those guys whose EOY SB count will depend highly on how he starts the year off in the running department.

 

If he starts the first couple of months going say...6-for-9...I think there's a good shot he goes for 15.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Bauers has indeed been playing LF. Twice during the recent series vs. Blue Jays, once at DH, for reference sake. Rotoballer was just pumping him as a waiver wire pickup. Maybe there's some hope Bauers can find his stroke yet. And yes, some SBs thrown in would be a nice addition.

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Anybody watch the Indians regularly and can report back on how he’s looked at the plate? He’s killing me, but obviously his .171 BABIP and 8% k-rate seem to indicate that he’s just been wildly unlucky. 

 

Considering cutting this guy in my keeper league for tellez or some other flavor of the week, but feel like it could burn me. 

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CarGo is playing LF against lefties now, and there's even chatter Bauer could get sent down to work on things. No doubt a poor start to 2019, same as how he finished 2018.

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On 4/14/2019 at 2:07 PM, Bill_Buckner said:

Anybody watch the Indians regularly and can report back on how he’s looked at the plate? He’s killing me, but obviously his .171 BABIP and 8% k-rate seem to indicate that he’s just been wildly unlucky. 

 

Considering cutting this guy in my keeper league for tellez or some other flavor of the week, but feel like it could burn me. 

 

No he hasn't been wildly unlucky at all.

 

.210 xBA

.294 xwOBA

7,9 LD%

50,0 GB%

21,1 Hard%

 

He's bottom 6 in both LD% and Hard%. He's been atrocious.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 4/14/2019 at 5:07 AM, Bill_Buckner said:

Anybody watch the Indians regularly and can report back on how he’s looked at the plate? He’s killing me, but obviously his .171 BABIP and 8% k-rate seem to indicate that he’s just been wildly unlucky. 

 

Considering cutting this guy in my keeper league for tellez or some other flavor of the week, but feel like it could burn me. 

 

I have watched these past 2 games since being interested in adding him to my squad.   

 

 

 

He looks like a well-balanced hitter, having a controlled, tempered swing.  No loop, and more of a line drive approach to all fields.   He doesn't look like a !st Basemen when he's up to bat, since he's smaller in stature, more like an outfielder.   The way he very quickly gets out of the box after he makes contact leads me to believe he can leg out singles, plus he could stretch out more doubles that would be long singles for most other 1st basemen.  I kinda like him.

 

If he could go .270 / 15 hr / 15sb, man,, that would be a major asset to my team build at the Corner Infield position.  I like to comprise my team of guys that can get me 10-15 + SB's throughout the season, and not having to roster any high-risk speedsters like Mallex, Hamilton, Dee Gordon.   Guys like Bellinger, Puig, Wil Myers, Moncada, and possibly Bauers have the pop you need to accumulate HR's while giving you shot at a stolen base about once a week.  Balance this out with some Batting Average specialty guys like Miggy has become, plus assets like Jeff McNeil, Daniel Murphy, Jose Martinez and you have a winning strategy.

 

I chose to go with Ryon Healy for the time being, but I'm not sure what Seattle will do when Kyle Seager is healthy so this is more likely a short term solution.  If Bauers can put together 3-4 more solid games, I'm gonna scoop him up, and give him a month to see where his confidence level is.  Bauers is young, and was a pretty highly touted prospect.  At 23 years old, we've seen guys get a little momentum, then BOOM something clicks, realizing " Oh, I belong here", and they never look back.

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I consider betting on this guy after his one good month (right after his call-up) instead of Peter "Pete" Alonso (I was incredibly frustrated with the Mets not promoting him) one of the biggest long-term mistakes of my fantasy baseball career.

I've watched a ton of his at-bats and I finally cut him last week.  Physically, he looks like he's regressed from where he was a year ago, which is weird because you'd think workout regimes and diet would improve in the MLB. He has good pitch identification skills and good plate coverage, but the bat speed just looks utterly lacking.  I'm watching him identify a pitch, take a good swing at it, and he's late or hitting it weakly over and over and over again.  

He may figure it out.  I think he needs to make friends with Derek Dietrich and follow that guy's "workout" program.  

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