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Michael Thomas 2019 Outlook


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Haven’t seen a thread on it, but what about the 2019 outlook for Michael Thomas. He has to be one of the biggest up and down wide receivers. Can get 7 points as a low to almost 40. He had 7 games during the season below 13.4 points. 4 games with less than 5 catches during the biggest run of the season more most owners. Is he worth the risk for taking in the 1stround in a standard 10 or 12 team leagues?

 

Last 3 seasons:

 

Season

Team

Games

Receiving

Rushing

Fumbles

GP

GS

Rec

Yds

Avg

Lng

TD

Att

Yds

Avg

Lng

TD

FUM

Lost

2016

NO

15

12

92

1,137

12.4

46

9

0

0

0.0

0

0

2

2

2017

NO

16

14

104

1,245

12.0

43

5

0

0

0.0

0

0

0

0

2018

NO

16

16

125

1,405

11.2

72T

9

0

0

0.0

0

0

2

2

 

Total

47

42

321

3,787

11.8

72T

23

0

0

0.0

0

0

4

4

 

 

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The man just broke the all time Receiving record for a season,  and still has a game left to play.      MVP of 2019 in my book. Most people just forget he exist,  ......unstoppable this year.

Assuming Brees is back, I'm very happy to invest high capital in Thomas..   Nearly every receiver has duds, that's no reason to put him any lower.  He checks so many boxes:  youth, great offense, coaching/QB stability, lots of targets, and health.     

 

I suppose you do have to fear a run-heavy game taking him out of the equation a bit, but I dont find that i'm completely fearless on any WR next year.  

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Sun 12/23 vsPITPIT
W
31-28
7 23 3.3 2 8 4 6 82 20.5 0 42 0 0 0 0
Mon 12/17 @CARCAR
W
12-9
14 67 4.8 1 16 7 9 36 5.1 0 11 0 0 0 0
Sun 12/9 @TBTB
W
28-14
12 51 4.3 0 12 5 6 36 7.2 0 15 0 0 0 0
Thu 11/29 @DALDAL
L
13-10
11 36 3.3 0 7 8 11 36 4.5 0 8 1 0 0 0
Thu 11/22 vsATLATL
W
31-17
14 89 6.4 0 18 1 1 9 9.0 0 9 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/18 vsPHIPHI
W
48-7
13 71 5.5 0 16 1 1 37 37.0 1 37 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/11 @CINCIN
W
51-14
12 56 4.7 2 14 4 5 46 11.5 0 19 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/4 vsLARLAR
W
45-35
19 82 4.3 2 17 4 5 34 8.5 1 16 0 0 0 0
Sun 10/28 @MINMIN
W
30-20
13 45 3.5 1 17 7 8 31 4.4 1 17 0 0 0 0
Sun 10/21 @BALBAL
W
24-23
17 64 3.8 1 12 2 2 11 5.5 0 8 0 0 0 0
Mon 10/8 vsWSHWSH
W
43-19
6 24 4.0 0 9 3 4 15 5.0 0 6 0 0 0 0

 

 

TD's kept him on the RB1 map when Ingram came back. Game's he didnt have TD's he often fell into the RB2 field. Thomas was unaffected and stayed a high end WR1. Trust me I love AK. But I would go Thomas over him next year if Ingram is back. 

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23 hours ago, mpat15 said:
Sun 12/23 vsPITPIT
W
31-28
7 23 3.3 2 8 4 6 82 20.5 0 42 0 0 0 0
Mon 12/17 @CARCAR
W
12-9
14 67 4.8 1 16 7 9 36 5.1 0 11 0 0 0 0
Sun 12/9 @TBTB
W
28-14
12 51 4.3 0 12 5 6 36 7.2 0 15 0 0 0 0
Thu 11/29 @DALDAL
L
13-10
11 36 3.3 0 7 8 11 36 4.5 0 8 1 0 0 0
Thu 11/22 vsATLATL
W
31-17
14 89 6.4 0 18 1 1 9 9.0 0 9 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/18 vsPHIPHI
W
48-7
13 71 5.5 0 16 1 1 37 37.0 1 37 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/11 @CINCIN
W
51-14
12 56 4.7 2 14 4 5 46 11.5 0 19 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/4 vsLARLAR
W
45-35
19 82 4.3 2 17 4 5 34 8.5 1 16 0 0 0 0
Sun 10/28 @MINMIN
W
30-20
13 45 3.5 1 17 7 8 31 4.4 1 17 0 0 0 0
Sun 10/21 @BALBAL
W
24-23
17 64 3.8 1 12 2 2 11 5.5 0 8 0 0 0 0
Mon 10/8 vsWSHWSH
W
43-19
6 24 4.0 0 9 3 4 15 5.0 0 6 0 0 0 0

 

 

TD's kept him on the RB1 map when Ingram came back. Game's he didnt have TD's he often fell into the RB2 field. Thomas was unaffected and stayed a high end WR1. Trust me I love AK. But I would go Thomas over him next year if Ingram is back. 

Kamara is averaging a td per game.  Embrace it.

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On 1/21/2019 at 2:45 PM, mpat15 said:
Sun 12/23 vsPITPIT
W
31-28
7 23 3.3 2 8 4 6 82 20.5 0 42 0 0 0 0
Mon 12/17 @CARCAR
W
12-9
14 67 4.8 1 16 7 9 36 5.1 0 11 0 0 0 0
Sun 12/9 @TBTB
W
28-14
12 51 4.3 0 12 5 6 36 7.2 0 15 0 0 0 0
Thu 11/29 @DALDAL
L
13-10
11 36 3.3 0 7 8 11 36 4.5 0 8 1 0 0 0
Thu 11/22 vsATLATL
W
31-17
14 89 6.4 0 18 1 1 9 9.0 0 9 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/18 vsPHIPHI
W
48-7
13 71 5.5 0 16 1 1 37 37.0 1 37 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/11 @CINCIN
W
51-14
12 56 4.7 2 14 4 5 46 11.5 0 19 0 0 0 0
Sun 11/4 vsLARLAR
W
45-35
19 82 4.3 2 17 4 5 34 8.5 1 16 0 0 0 0
Sun 10/28 @MINMIN
W
30-20
13 45 3.5 1 17 7 8 31 4.4 1 17 0 0 0 0
Sun 10/21 @BALBAL
W
24-23
17 64 3.8 1 12 2 2 11 5.5 0 8 0 0 0 0
Mon 10/8 vsWSHWSH
W
43-19
6 24 4.0 0 9 3 4 15 5.0 0 6 0 0 0 0

 

 

TD's kept him on the RB1 map when Ingram came back. Game's he didnt have TD's he often fell into the RB2 field. Thomas was unaffected and stayed a high end WR1. Trust me I love AK. But I would go Thomas over him next year if Ingram is back. 

What? An RB1 had RB2 weeks?! Blasphemy!

 

You gotta go AK over MT!

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13 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

I would take Kamara before Thomas, but in my league I don't have that option. Thomas' floor and ceiling are just as crazy as Nick Chubbs imo, but Thomas has many great games. Kamara could take a hit, especially with potentially bigger work load and even some of the lineman leaving.

The whole Saints starting OL is under contract next year,.

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3 hours ago, affliction said:

Next year the Saints will get another TE or slot WR. Plus Meredith should be healthy. I would not pick Thomas in the 1st.

 

They're a bit short on resources to get new talent.  Spotrac has them around 12 mil in cap space. and they have only one pick in the first four rounds- 62 overall.    I do feel like they'll add bodies here but it will be on the cheap.   I'd guess older veterans that are cut by their teams, similar to how they got Ben Watson, or how they chased Dez and Brandon Marshall.    Guys like that are complimentary and in no way should scare anyone from Mike Thomas.  

 

Meredith also saves them over 3.5 mil if he's cut, i'd bet that's more likely than him being retained.    Even if he stays, he's a guy who has barely done anything in the NFL, and is a very poor bet to stay healthy.   

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Really surprised to see no action in this thread since January.

Drafting Michael Thomas in the 1st round may not be the sexiest pick you make in your entire draft, but I think it is certainly one of the safest. How does the Rotoworld community compare MT's floor with huge spike weeks with the likes of Davante Adams? 

In my mind, Adams has the edge in the TD department, but there is a decent amount of unknowns with this new Packer's offense. Adams out of the slot will be interesting, but LaFleur was a run first coach with the Titans and based on reports from OTAs, he is unwilling to turn the offense over to Rodgers. He seems very set on retraining Rodgers at this stage of his career despite his Peyton-like ability to run the offense on the field. 

Anyone considering drafting MT ahead of Adams for pure safety and known outcomes in the first round? 

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How did this get turned into a Kamara v Thomas choice?  Kamara will be gone in the first 4 to 5 picks in most redrafts while Thomas is going near the bottom of the 1st.  Very, very few owners would have a choice between the 2 unless they are reaching way up for Thomas, in which case they ought to probably be looking to trade down.

 

Thomas is a great pick.  Legit threat to be WR1 in FF this year given that OBJ and Brown have both relocated.  He’s absolutely worth taking at the end of the first round.  You’re going to get variability week to week with almost every WR.  If you’re looking for more week-to-week consistency you’re going to need to let him slide to someone else and go with a tier 2 RB with the warts you’ll get with him.

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Yeah I don't get why he isn't in the first tier in most rankings I'm seeing. His yards and catches have been highly consistent, and only 1 year were his TDs kinda low but he's always right there just a hair below the top WRs (who vary). I guess because he hasn't had one monster year yet. 

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9 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

How did this get turned into a Kamara v Thomas choice?  Kamara will be gone in the first 4 to 5 picks in most redrafts while Thomas is going near the bottom of the 1st.  Very, very few owners would have a choice between the 2 unless they are reaching way up for Thomas, in which case they ought to probably be looking to trade down.

 

Thomas is a great pick.  Legit threat to be WR1 in FF this year given that OBJ and Brown have both relocated.  He’s absolutely worth taking at the end of the first round.  You’re going to get variability week to week with almost every WR.  If you’re looking for more week-to-week consistency you’re going to need to let him slide to someone else and go with a tier 2 RB with the warts you’ll get with him.

 

It looks like it was a debate in January before rankings were as clear. 

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When I pick a player in the first or early second I don't need him to necessarily finish number 1, I just need him to live up to his ADP. I feel comfortable that Thomas will do that. I think his upside is capped because it appears that the Saints are no longer a team that will throw 650+ times a year. If we see any indication that the Defense may struggle or has injuries his upside could be massive.

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