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T.Y. Hilton 2019 Outlook


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31 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Wr3 ??

so down into say a Dj Moore category?

just my opinion but ppl acting likes this is death for Ty. I get when JB and ty were on field things weren’t good. This Indy Tm is much different however. I hope D’s force JB to throw...JB isn’t luck I get that...

Ty 83,1150,8...good wr3?

Why would you assume he achieves a career high in touchdowns? That's what many of these truthers are ignoring, Hilton has always had a below-average yards to TDs ratio relative to other elite receivers. Good WR3? Yeah, probably, but those projections would make him a WR1 last year.

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On what planet is Hilton going to fall to the 4th round? Seriously?   He would have been a top 10 WR last season if he played every game (which he is as good of a bet as anyone to do). Not t

The #4 WR in terms of points per game so far who you probably got in the 5th round is a "Fantasy cancer"? 

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5 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Why would you assume he achieves a career high in touchdowns? That's what many of these truthers are ignoring, Hilton has always had a below-average yards to TDs ratio relative to other elite receivers. Good WR3? Yeah, probably, but those projections would make him a WR1 last year.

 

Ok ok

ill come back to planet earth 62 720 4

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22 hours ago, miasma16 said:

2017 (16 games with Brissett): 57 receptions, 966 yards, 4 TDs

2018 (14 games with Luck): 76 receptions, 1270 yards, 6 TDs

 

21 hours ago, Nap Time said:

 

But the OL was so much better in 2018.  Also, Brissett had no off season to prepare in 2017.

 

21 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Just posting facts for reference. They'll be better than they were in 2017.

 

21 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

It's foolish and reactionary to compare this year to 2017 in an apples to apples fashion. New coach with dramatically better scheme, far better line, more preparation, more stable run game......I'd say TY is still in line for 100+ targets

2019 is a whole new year and it is true that Brissett is in a better position than he was in 2017. He thus should be able to have a better connection with Hilton this season...

But his connection in 2017 was REALLY BAD. Hilton's 2017 overall stat line doesn't do justice to how poorly he performed. This was his 2017 game log. Games in blue were good games. Games in red were not just bad games...but complete bust games. 

    Receiving Scoring Fumbles
Rk Date G# Age Tm   Opp Result GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt TD Pts Fmb FF FR Yds TD
  16 Games           4-12-0   109 57 966 16.95 4 52.3% 8.86 4 24 2 0 0 0 0
1 2017-09-10 1 27.300 IND @ LAR L 9-46 * 7 3 57 19.00 0 42.9% 8.14 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
2 2017-09-17 2 27.307 IND   ARI L 13-16 * 6 4 49 12.25 0 66.7% 8.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2017-09-24 3 27.314 IND   CLE W 31-28 * 9 7 153 21.86 1 77.8% 17.00 1 6 0 0 0 0 0
4 2017-10-01 4 27.321 IND @ SEA L 18-46 * 6 3 30 10.00 0 50.0% 5.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 2017-10-08 5 27.328 IND   SFO W 26-23 * 9 7 177 25.29 0 77.8% 19.67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 2017-10-16 6 27.336 IND @ TEN L 22-36 * 4 1 19 19.00 0 25.0% 4.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 2017-10-22 7 27.342 IND   JAX L 0-27 * 8 2 27 13.50 0 25.0% 3.38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 2017-10-29 8 27.349 IND @ CIN L 23-24 * 7 2 15 7.50 0 28.6% 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 2017-11-05 9 27.356 IND @ HOU W 20-14 * 9 5 175 35.00 2 55.6% 19.44 2 12 0 0 0 0 0
10 2017-11-12 10 27.363 IND   PIT L 17-20 * 4 2 23 11.50 0 50.0% 5.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 2017-11-26 11 28.012 IND   TEN L 16-20 * 5 2 15 7.50 0 40.0% 3.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 2017-12-03 12 28.019 IND @ JAX L 10-30 * 6 3 51 17.00 1 50.0% 8.50 1 6 0 0 0 0 0
13 2017-12-10 13 28.026 IND @ BUF L 7-13 * 4 2 20 10.00 0 50.0% 5.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 2017-12-14 14 28.030 IND   DEN L 13-25 * 7 5 41 8.20 0 71.4% 5.86 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
15 2017-12-23 15 28.039 IND @ BAL L 16-23 * 12 6 100 16.67 0 50.0% 8.33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 2017-12-31 16 28.047 IND   HOU W 22-13 * 6 3 14 4.67 0 50.0% 2.33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Overall, Hilton gave fantasy owners 11 total duds out of 16 played. His overall yardage numbers of 966 doesn't seem terrible...but he achieved a huge percentage of it across four 100-yard games. Some fantasy owners may not have even had him active for some of his good games, because he had been so bad in prior games.

As mentioned up top, this is a new year. I don't think Hilton will be as inconsistent as he was with Brissett in 2017. But I also think that he's in for a rough go and fantasy owners could see more busts than they'd like from him, just as was the case in 2017. 

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I agree. Not even going to consider drafting him. Even if he slips a bunch of rounds, he's the kind of guy Id be tempted to keep starting even if he was doing absolutely nothing. I just dont see any upside with TY

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28 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

 

 

2019 is a whole new year and it is true that Brissett is in a better position than he was in 2017. He thus should be able to have a better connection with Hilton this season...

But his connection in 2017 was REALLY BAD. Hilton's 2017 overall stat line doesn't do justice to how poorly he performed. This was his 2017 game log. Games in blue were good games. Games in red were not just bad games...but complete bust games. 

    Receiving Scoring Fumbles
Rk Date G# Age Tm   Opp Result GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt TD Pts Fmb FF FR Yds TD
  16 Games           4-12-0   109 57 966 16.95 4 52.3% 8.86 4 24 2 0 0 0 0
1 2017-09-10 1 27.300 IND @ LAR L 9-46 * 7 3 57 19.00 0 42.9% 8.14 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
2 2017-09-17 2 27.307 IND   ARI L 13-16 * 6 4 49 12.25 0 66.7% 8.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2017-09-24 3 27.314 IND   CLE W 31-28 * 9 7 153 21.86 1 77.8% 17.00 1 6 0 0 0 0 0
4 2017-10-01 4 27.321 IND @ SEA L 18-46 * 6 3 30 10.00 0 50.0% 5.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 2017-10-08 5 27.328 IND   SFO W 26-23 * 9 7 177 25.29 0 77.8% 19.67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 2017-10-16 6 27.336 IND @ TEN L 22-36 * 4 1 19 19.00 0 25.0% 4.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 2017-10-22 7 27.342 IND   JAX L 0-27 * 8 2 27 13.50 0 25.0% 3.38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 2017-10-29 8 27.349 IND @ CIN L 23-24 * 7 2 15 7.50 0 28.6% 2.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 2017-11-05 9 27.356 IND @ HOU W 20-14 * 9 5 175 35.00 2 55.6% 19.44 2 12 0 0 0 0 0
10 2017-11-12 10 27.363 IND   PIT L 17-20 * 4 2 23 11.50 0 50.0% 5.75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 2017-11-26 11 28.012 IND   TEN L 16-20 * 5 2 15 7.50 0 40.0% 3.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12 2017-12-03 12 28.019 IND @ JAX L 10-30 * 6 3 51 17.00 1 50.0% 8.50 1 6 0 0 0 0 0
13 2017-12-10 13 28.026 IND @ BUF L 7-13 * 4 2 20 10.00 0 50.0% 5.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 2017-12-14 14 28.030 IND   DEN L 13-25 * 7 5 41 8.20 0 71.4% 5.86 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
15 2017-12-23 15 28.039 IND @ BAL L 16-23 * 12 6 100 16.67 0 50.0% 8.33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 2017-12-31 16 28.047 IND   HOU W 22-13 * 6 3 14 4.67 0 50.0% 2.33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Overall, Hilton gave fantasy owners 11 total duds out of 16 played. His overall yardage numbers of 966 doesn't seem terrible...but he achieved a huge percentage of it across four 100-yard games. Some fantasy owners may not have even had him active for some of his good games, because he had been so bad in prior games.

As mentioned up top, this is a new year. I don't think Hilton will be as inconsistent as he was with Brissett in 2017. But I also think that he's in for a rough go and fantasy owners could see more busts than they'd like from him, just as was the case in 2017. 

Just for the heck of it, I looked up Hilton's entire career in games Luck didn't start. This was pretty easy to check, as Luck & Hilton were both rookies in 2012. Luck missed 9 games in 2015 and 1 game in 2016, along with the aforementioned full 2017 season listed above. Here's how Hilton has done without Luck:

    Receiving Kick Returns Punt Returns Scoring
Rk Date G# Age Tm   Opp Result GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt Rt Yds Y/Rt TD Ret Yds Y/R TD 2PM TD Pts
                                                     
11 2016-11-24 11 27.010 IND   PIT L 7-28 * 5 3 54 18.00 0 60.0% 10.80 0 0   0 0 0   0   0 0

 

    Receiving Punt Returns Scoring Fumbles
Rk Date G# Age Tm   Opp Result GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Ctch% Y/Tgt Ret Yds Y/R TD TD Pts Fmb FF FR Yds TD
                                                     
4 2015-10-04 4 25.324 IND   JAX W 16-13 * 13 7 67 9.57 0 53.8% 5.15 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 2015-10-08 5 25.328 IND @ HOU W 27-20 * 9 5 88 17.60 0 55.6% 9.78 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
                                                     
10 2015-11-22 10 26.008 IND @ ATL W 24-21   4 2 21 10.50 0 50.0% 5.25 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11 2015-11-29 11 26.015 IND   TAM W 25-12 * 12 6 95 15.83 2 50.0% 7.92 0 0   0 2 12 1 0 0 0 0
12 2015-12-06 12 26.022 IND @ PIT L 10-45 * 5 3 36 12.00 0 60.0% 7.20 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13 2015-12-13 13 26.029 IND @ JAX L 16-51 * 7 4 132 33.00 0 57.1% 18.86 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 2015-12-20 14 26.036 IND   HOU L 10-16 * 5 3 29 9.67 0 60.0% 5.80 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
15 2015-12-27 15 26.043 IND @ MIA W 18-12 * 7 4 64 16.00 0 57.1% 9.14 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
16 2016-01-03 16 26.050 IND   TEN W 30-24 * 7 4 44 11.00 0 57.1% 6.29 0 0   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

So in games without Luck at QB, Hilton has either scored a TD or gained 100 yards in 6 of 26 games. 
Out of the 20 games with no TD or 100 yards (the red games), maybe 2 of them were "okay games" fantasy-wise. 
The other 18 games were pretty much busts.
Again to reiterate, that doesn't mean Hilton will have the same type of bust percentage in 2019. It's a new year and several variables are different from what they were in the past. These are just the facts of what he has done without Luck in the past. 
 

Edited by Corleone
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6 out of 26? That's even worse than I thought, such an easy pass. I always hated Hilton because out of his 2 huge games a season that imploded his stats they were always against me. When I had him he was the most annoying player to predict. Easiest pass ever 

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I have always passed on him since he went higher then I have ever liked him. Yet tonight I got him in both of my main money leagues. He fell so far I had to grab him. People all think he is useless now that Luck is gone. I am not his biggest fan but if he falls 4-5 rounds further then he would have with Luck as his QB you have to take him.

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9 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

I have always passed on him since he went higher then I have ever liked him. Yet tonight I got him in both of my main money leagues. He fell so far I had to grab him. People all think he is useless now that Luck is gone. I am not his biggest fan but if he falls 4-5 rounds further then he would have with Luck as his QB you have to take him.

 

How many players in your league and what round did he fall to you?

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11 hours ago, Corleone said:

So in games without Luck at QB, Hilton has either scored a TD or gained 100 yards in 6 of 26 games. 
Out of the 20 games with no TD or 100 yards (the red games), maybe 2 of them were "okay games" fantasy-wise. 
The other 18 games were pretty much busts.
Again to reiterate, that doesn't mean Hilton will have the same type of bust percentage in 2019. It's a new year and several variables are different from what they were in the past. These are just the facts of what he has done without Luck in the past. 
 

One minor correction...I should have listed: in games without Luck at QB, Hilton has either scored a TD or gained 100 yards in 7 of 26 games (not 6).
Out of the 19 games with no TD or 100 yards (the red games), maybe 2 of them were "okay games" fantasy-wise. 
The other 17 games were pretty much busts.

Obviously that is still...not good.

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8 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

6 out of 26? That's even worse than I thought, such an easy pass. I always hated Hilton because out of his 2 huge games a season that imploded his stats they were always against me. When I had him he was the most annoying player to predict. Easiest pass ever 

 

My EXACT thoughts on him - never been a big fan. This just makes it easy.

 

To me possession receivers /TEs can benefit when the starting QB goes down due to the increased targets - not as much deep threat WRs

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42 minutes ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Maybe I’m optimistic.

red rocket to aj green was pretty good. I get aj and ty are totally different but I do believe JB will surprise this yr.....

 

I’m not sure why Dalton-AJ has anything  to do with Hilton’s situation.

First of all, no offense to Hilton, but AJG is easily a level above. He’s a complete WR who, if he hadn’t battled injuries most of his career, would be in the conversation as best in the league.

Also, while Dalton is mistake-prone and shrinks in the spotlight, he is a much more accomplished passer than Brisset. He also has a great chemistry with Green.

Hilton doesn’t excel as a possession and/or Red Zone WR, so if they aren’t throwing the ball down the field, his numbers are going to take a huge hit.

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2 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Maybe I’m optimistic.

red rocket to aj green was pretty good. I get aj and ty are totally different but I do believe JB will surprise this yr.....

That is the most out of any orifice random comparison ever 

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Surprised no one has mentioned that the colts have the best line and coach they've had in the Luck era. Hilton also has the best coach he's ever had, and Hilton was extremely consistent in the back half of last year's games. 

 

Idk- I'm still buying. Maybe not as high, but still think he's a good wr2.

Go buy low from him from other league members, only chance you'll get as this is a sky is falling moment.

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2 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

I’m not sure why Dalton-AJ has anything  to do with Hilton’s situation.

First of all, no offense to Hilton, but AJG is easily a level above. He’s a complete WR who, if he hadn’t battled injuries most of his career, would be in the conversation as best in the league.

Also, while Dalton is mistake-prone and shrinks in the spotlight, he is a much more accomplished passer than Brisset. He also has a great chemistry with Green.

Hilton doesn’t excel as a possession and/or Red Zone WR, so if they aren’t throwing the ball down the field, his numbers are going to take a huge hit.

 

Lol

sorry

i did acknowledge they are very different 

i just think the hate has already gone to far on TY

Also...I’ll keep the red rocket talk alive.

better numbers this yr...red rocket or JB?

ill take JB all day...

Edited by Whitecloud0101
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People complaining about random points yet believe only numbers instead of situation... And can't logically understand that variables change constantly... It's why looking at only numbers to make an educated guess in the future, in sports, is one of the biggest strawmans you can create.

 

I'll gladly capitalize and draft extreme value with amazing ceiling.

Edited by ponza88
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I wouldn't say "amazing ceiling" but it sounds like people are way underestimating Brissett. He's no Luck but I don't see Hilton's numbers taking all that big of drop. Hilton is a great buy-low value now.

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12 minutes ago, bomont said:

I wouldn't say "amazing ceiling" but it sounds like people are way underestimating Brissett. He's no Luck but I don't see Hilton's numbers taking all that big of drop. Hilton is a great buy-low value now.

 

I would, which is why I said it. TY raw skill creates an Amazing Ceiling.

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56 minutes ago, bomont said:

I wouldn't say "amazing ceiling" but it sounds like people are way underestimating Brissett. He's no Luck but I don't see Hilton's numbers taking all that big of drop. Hilton is a great buy-low value now.

 

Hilton is a high-end WR3 right now. If his ADP is worse than that, he's a buy low.

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4 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

Maybe I’m optimistic.

red rocket to aj green was pretty good. I get aj and ty are totally different but I do believe JB will surprise this yr.....

 

The problem is that Hilton won't see the necessary increase in targets to counter for the drop from Luck to Brissett. Reich likes to spread it around. Recipe for boom-bust WR3.

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