Tim Anderson 2019 Outlook

[Hanghow 476]

It's a bit of a confusing profile for me, at this point. While he's swinging at MORE pitches out of the zone, his contact rate on those pitches has jumped a ton, from 58.3% to 67.8% so far. The contact rate on all pitches is now solidly above league average.

It's also worth pointing out that other guys are making the high O-swing% profile work. Tim Anderson is behind Javier Baez on that list; Schoop and Mondesi are also top-5; Eddie Rosario and Ozzie Albies are also in the top-11 and have a wRC+ over 100. Tim Anderson shares speed and an aggressive approach with those guys; if the contact gains are real, he could regress and still be very good.

[Orioles123 49]

4 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

It's a bit of a confusing profile for me, at this point. While he's swinging at MORE pitches out of the zone, his contact rate on those pitches has jumped a ton, from 58.3% to 67.8% so far. The contact rate on all pitches is now solidly above league average.

It's also worth pointing out that other guys are making the high O-swing% profile work. Tim Anderson is behind Javier Baez on that list; Schoop and Mondesi are also top-5; Eddie Rosario and Ozzie Albies are also in the top-11 and have a wRC+ over 100. Tim Anderson shares speed and an aggressive approach with those guys; if the contact gains are real, he could regress and still be very good.

Exactly my thoughts. Like what I'm seeing.

Would be awesome if he learned how to take a walk though.

 

[hangin n wangin 1,765]

40 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Reading through the past 2 pages, I disagree.

There is a difference between being excited for what he is currently doing and saying that he is not going to regress. Read harder next time.

Edited April 29, 2019 by hangin n wangin

[sportsfreak2744 792]

28 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

It's a bit of a confusing profile for me, at this point. While he's swinging at MORE pitches out of the zone, his contact rate on those pitches has jumped a ton, from 58.3% to 67.8% so far. The contact rate on all pitches is now solidly above league average.

It's also worth pointing out that other guys are making the high O-swing% profile work. Tim Anderson is behind Javier Baez on that list; Schoop and Mondesi are also top-5; Eddie Rosario and Ozzie Albies are also in the top-11 and have a wRC+ over 100. Tim Anderson shares speed and an aggressive approach with those guys; if the contact gains are real, he could regress and still be very good.

 

His O-Contact % is way up, but what's the quality of that contact?  In general, you're swinging at balls that pitchers want you to chase and are typically soft contact & low expected BABIP.  

[sportsfreak2744 792]

39 minutes ago, High&Inside said:

If you're gonna cite his O-swing you should probably include his O-Contact, especially considering it's the highest of his career at 68%. He also has his lowest swinging strike rate currently. 

NO ONE EXPECTS A .300 AVERAGE

We're here for bags, bombs, and batflips.

 

O-Contact is not necessarily a good thing.  Swinging at pitches outside the zone typically generates weak contact & is not good sign for long-term.

Batflips? I've seen the bat thrown, not flipped.

[ToO_BaD 2,206]

23 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

O-Contact is not necessarily a good thing.  Swinging at pitches outside the zone typically generates weak contact & is not good sign for long-term.

Batflips? I've seen the bat thrown, not flipped.

Yeah he has a really low hard contact %

[Mexal 36]

44 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

His O-Contact % is way up, but what's the quality of that contact?  In general, you're swinging at balls that pitchers want you to chase and are typically soft contact & low expected BABIP.  

 

Helps that he's super fast. Gets a fair amount of infield hits on those low contact hits.

[brakeyawself 121]

1 hour ago, Mexal said:

 

Helps that he's super fast. Gets a fair amount of infield hits on those low contact hits.

 

Could actually argue those soft contact hits are better for him in that regard.  Kind of makes up for his lack of walks, being able to get on base with soft contact.

[The Big Bat Theory 7,697]

1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

O-Contact is not necessarily a good thing.  Swinging at pitches outside the zone typically generates weak contact & is not good sign for long-term.

Vlad Senior would disagree.

[brakeyawself 121]

3 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

BABIP sitting at .448, highest in baseball by 20 points.  Last year his BABIP was .289, in 2017 it was .328.

He's also swung at 45.5% of pitches out of the zone, 2nd highest in baseball.

 

Regression is coming.

 

Sure, but he could still end the year a top 20 offensive player even with regression.  Mostly going to be OBP and AVG im guessing.   If he just would learn to take some walks though, that regression should be minimal.

[sportsfreak2744 792]

18 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Vlad Senior would disagree.

 

Tim Anderson is no Vlad Sr.

Ancedotal evidence is faulty logic.

[brakeyawself 121]

4 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Tim Anderson is no Vlad Sr.

Ancedotal evidence is faulty logic.

 

So is assuming Anderson can't do it because he isn't Vlad Sr.  He can both not be Vlad Sr. and maintain production based on a similar skill.

 

Edited April 29, 2019 by brakeyawself

[hangin n wangin 1,765]

6 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Tim Anderson is no Vlad Sr.

Ancedotal evidence is faulty logic.

What's your purpose in here? I think we all get it's pretty evident you don't like Tim Anderson.

[sportsfreak2744 792]

3 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

What's your purpose in here? I think we all get it's pretty evident you don't like Tim Anderson.

 

My purpose is to bring a little reality into this thread.  

It's pretty evident you aren't willing to see his flaws. I've made my arguments with supporting evidence but you don't want to read it.  That's fine, but it doesn't excuse your hostility.

[hangin n wangin 1,765]

9 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

My purpose is to bring a little reality into this thread.  

It's pretty evident you aren't willing to see his flaws. I've made my arguments with supporting evidence but you don't want to read it.  That's fine, but it doesn't excuse your hostility.

It seems your purpose is to be argumentative. As displayed by you arguing with someone else over his "bat flip" in previous posts, which has nothing to do with his fantasy outlook. I think everyone in here knows his flaws.

[hangin n wangin 1,765]

On 4/17/2019 at 4:58 PM, hangin n wangin said:

ok so we all know regression is coming. But my hope is that Anderson still took a step forward from last year at least. That alone would make him well worth his ADP. All sites are saying to sell high and I am trying but I also kind of want to keep him.

That is my post from April 17...so um yea...again, we know regression is coming smart guy.

[RoadApple 464]

My league counts On Base % so I have generally steered clear of this guy but even with that stat, he can still be valuable and has been.

[89Topps 2,855]

3 hours ago, brakeyawself said:

 

Could actually argue those soft contact hits are better for him in that regard.  Kind of makes up for his lack of walks, being able to get on base with soft contact.

 

I don't think it's ever more beneficial for a guy to make more soft and less hard contact

[SpartyOn4 824]

52 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

I don't think it's ever more beneficial for a guy to make more soft and less hard contact

Tim Anderson OPS this season by contact type, per Fangraphs:

Soft: .333
Medium: .974
Hard: 2.286

[sleepysock 876]

1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

I don't think it's ever more beneficial for a guy to make more soft and less hard contact

 

True, but he's dropped his K rate by about 5% -- if he's exchanging some of those strikeouts for soft contact, it is in fact a good thing as some of that weak stuff will lead to him standing on first base instead of walking back to the dugout with his head down.

[ToO_BaD 2,206]

14 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

 

True, but he's dropped his K rate by about 5% -- if he's exchanging some of those strikeouts for soft contact, it is in fact a good thing as some of that weak stuff will lead to him standing on first base instead of walking back to the dugout with his head down.

His BB% is also down by about 3 - so those are some automatic trips to first base he is giving up.  And with his incredibly high BABIP some of that extra soft contact may soon start turning into outs.

[High&Inside 1,310]

The argument is still centered on his average and it shouldn't be.

Those holding Tim are after the power speed combo, that's it. If they're expecting his avg to stay north of .300, they're mistaken.

His plate discipline has improved concerning K%. His hard hit rate is in line with last year when he hit 20 bombs. The ball is juiced this year and he's probably gonna hit closer to 25 bombs. He already has 10 steals, and has a legit shot to get to 40 steals.

If you want to move on from a possible .270 25 HR 40 steal SS go for it.

[hangin n wangin 1,765]

23 minutes ago, High&Inside said:

The argument is still centered on his average and it shouldn't be.

Those holding Tim are after the power speed combo, that's it. If they're expecting his avg to stay north of .300, they're mistaken.

His plate discipline has improved concerning K%. His hard hit rate is in line with last year when he hit 20 bombs. The ball is juiced this year and he's probably gonna hit closer to 25 bombs. He already has 10 steals, and has a legit shot to get to 40 steals.

If you want to move on from a possible .270 25 HR 40 steal SS go for it.

Yep. People didn't draft this guy for average. I certainly didn't. I knew his average was a weakness and his career OBP was putrid before drafting him. I drafted him because of his 20/20 potential. It looks like it could be even better than that now. But then people keep spouting stuff we already knew when we drafted him (that he doesn't draw walks).

[mjb03003 1,974]

If we knew he’d run like this he would have been a much hotter commodity at the draft table, BA/OBP be damned. 

[Slatykamora 2,889]

You realize that soft/hard is only a partial element of BABIP ranges, right? Don't get caught up in it.  He has a career .333 BABIP across like 1737 PAs. He's been a free swinger the entire time. This isn't new.

No-body beside the elite usually maintain above 350+ in the long run. Javy Baez has a career .339 BABIP.

Regressing the numbers to around .330 BABIP seems the easy projection for him right now.

Vlad Guerrero had a really low K% rate. So I have Zero clue why he was even brought up in this thread. There is world of difference between a free-swinger that makes tons of contact vs one the that whiffs (He only had a .316 career BABIP btw)

Edited April 30, 2019 by Slatykamora