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Josh Bell 2019 Outlook


tsh00k
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[...] Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10.. Him as the NL RBI leader for awhile there felt really fluky to me just based on who is in that lineup. I think we all knew regression was inevitable. Big fan of the changes he has made, but baseball is fickle and old habits can die hard. 

He oughta go on another few tears this year, but if you're deep at 1B and have the flexibility to sell him in redraft, now might be the time while he is still ranked top 4 at his position.. I loved the run and i think it's safe to say we all got him for basically free. If the HR derby curse has any truth whatsoever, i can see how this is the guy who it'd hit.. Most unproven of them all

Edited by tonycpsu
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12 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

[...] Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10.. Him as the NL RBI leader for awhile there felt really fluky to me just based on who is in that lineup. I think we all knew regression was inevitable. Big fan of the changes he has made, but baseball is fickle and old habits can die hard. 

He oughta go on another few tears this year, but if you're deep at 1B and have the flexibility to sell him in redraft, now might be the time while he is still ranked top 4 at his position.. I loved the run and i think it's safe to say we all got him for basically free. If the HR derby curse has any truth whatsoever, i can see how this is the guy who it'd hit.. Most unproven of them all

 

Well he's certainly not more unproven then Pete Alonso so there's that. Seriously though who are you going to sell him for? What other 1Bs? I'm not even sure the Jose Abreu owner would be willing to give you an upgrade for Bell because he's also having a great year. Unless you're in a position where you feel like you have to take some serious risks (Ex, trade Bell to fill a need a gamble on someone like Carpenter or Smoak being able to replace him) then I think it makes sense just to hold him. 

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23 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Well he's certainly not more unproven then Pete Alonso so there's that. Seriously though who are you going to sell him for? What other 1Bs? I'm not even sure the Jose Abreu owner would be willing to give you an upgrade for Bell because he's also having a great year. Unless you're in a position where you feel like you have to take some serious risks (Ex, trade Bell to fill a need a gamble on someone like Carpenter or Smoak being able to replace him) then I think it makes sense just to hold him. 

I'm more referring to the fact that you may have 1B depth and can afford to sacrifice some depth at that position for an upgrade elsewhere. I'm not talking trade him for a 1B, but if you are feeling the heat right now and want to swap at 1B, a guy like Abreu would be solid peace of mind & about what you could expect in return. Doubt you're getting Rizzo. I got lucky enough to where i have Bellinger and grabbed Pete Alonso off waivers earlier than Bell, so I moved Bell.

While I agree with you that Pete is also unproven, he just came off a 2018 between AA/AAA and hit 36/126 RBIs/.285/.395 OBP. Bell topped out at 14HRs in the minors, and we all know about his major regression last year. I have more faith in Pistol Pete.

I actually am a believer in the changes he has made with his stance/swing/approach in general, and I don't think this year is a fluke entirely. If this slump continues into August though, he is going to be extremely polarizing going into next year. And i may stay away. I just could afford to hop off this train, so I did. If you hold, I don't blame you. I very well may be wrong here. 

Edited by Motown_Magic
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7 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

I'm more referring to the fact that you may have 1B depth and can afford to sacrifice some depth at that position for an upgrade elsewhere. I'm not talking trade him for a 1B, but if you are feeling the heat right now and want to swap at 1B, a guy like Abreu would be solid peace of mind & about what you could expect in return. Doubt you're getting Rizzo. I got lucky enough to where i have Bellinger and grabbed Pete Alonso off waivers earlier than Bell, so I moved Bell.

While I agree with you that Pete is also unproven, he just came off a 2018 between AA/AAA and hit 36/126 RBIs/.285/.395 OBP. Bell topped out at 14HRs in the minors, and we all know about his major regression last year. I have more faith in Pistol Pete.

I actually am a believer in the changes he has made with his stance/swing/approach in general, and I don't think this year is a fluke entirely. If this slump continues into August though, he is going to be extremely polarizing going into next year. And i may stay away. I just could afford to hop off this train, so I did. If you hold, I don't blame you. I very well may be wrong here. 

 

I love Alonso, but that strike out rate is going to catch-up to him sooner rather than later. As for Bell, it will be be very interesting to see what his ADP is next season. I have a sneaky suspicion it's going to be low enough where he still might be a value. I personally would probably draft him over Alonso. 

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44 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

I'm more referring to the fact that you may have 1B depth and can afford to sacrifice some depth at that position for an upgrade elsewhere. I'm not talking trade him for a 1B, but if you are feeling the heat right now and want to swap at 1B, a guy like Abreu would be solid peace of mind & about what you could expect in return. Doubt you're getting Rizzo. I got lucky enough to where i have Bellinger and grabbed Pete Alonso off waivers earlier than Bell, so I moved Bell.

While I agree with you that Pete is also unproven, he just came off a 2018 between AA/AAA and hit 36/126 RBIs/.285/.395 OBP. Bell topped out at 14HRs in the minors, and we all know about his major regression last year. I have more faith in Pistol Pete.

I actually am a believer in the changes he has made with his stance/swing/approach in general, and I don't think this year is a fluke entirely. If this slump continues into August though, he is going to be extremely polarizing going into next year. And i may stay away. I just could afford to hop off this train, so I did. If you hold, I don't blame you. I very well may be wrong here. 

Obviously he had a few good seasons prior, but some of this reminds me of Jose Ramirez.  A late season collapse didn't hurt Ramirez on draft boards really at all, so while I understand Bell is more unproven than him, if this turns into a collapse and not just a slump, then I don't think Bell should be automatically ignored next season.  Too much of what he did prior was proven legit by his metrics, so I'd have a hard time believing he's all of a sudden become a turd.

Some of the issues are the umpires are basically taking one AB per game away from him now, calling a pitch or two off the plate (not borderline) a strike.  I know it happens several times in games, but like I said, this is happening basically every game to Bell.  Can't just say it's bad luck there.  That and they are understandably pitching around him more often, even though Moran is having a solid enough season behind him.

Can't ignore that he has been borderline awful since around the break, getting 1 RBI and 1 XBH in his last 12 games.  Like I said, I don't believe it's all his fault, but it will be interesting to see what happens going forward.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Dude is flat out cratering at exactly the wrong time. He's an absolute albatross and has been the entire 2nd half. He shows zero indication this is changing in the next 3 weeks. Can't play the long game anymore, time to win playoff weeks. 

We got what we could out of him. Time to juice another orange. 

Edited by TC84
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1 hour ago, TC84 said:

Dude is flat out cratering at exactly the wrong time. He's an absolute albatross and has been the entire 2nd half. He shows zero indication this is changing in the next 3 weeks. Can't play the long game anymore, time to win playoff weeks. 

We got what we could out of him. Time to juice another orange. 

You don't drop someone that did what Bell did this year. You saw the potential. It would be absolutely nuts to drop that when there is still about a month left in fantasy regular seasons and playoffs after that to go on a run. But go ahead and juice another orange. I'm sure the wire is filled with unripe, ugly ones.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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The switch has been turned on and Josh Bell is back to his beastly business. I will greatly appreciate a strong 6 week finish to this season. I'm in a strict NL only Roto race right now. I need every ribbie and homer I can get!

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