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Scooter Gennett 2019 Outlook


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Scooter Gennett broke out in 2017 with a .295 AVG, 27 HR, 97 RBI, 80 R, and 3 SB. He proved that those numbers were legitimate in 2018 by almost matching those numbers identically: .310 AVG, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 86 R, and 4 SB.

 

The Reds lineup could be really dangerous in 2019 with the additions of Puig and a full season of Winker. 

 

He was ranked 37th last year in 5x5 roto and 48th last year.

 

Why is his FantasyPros ECR 86? Why is his ADP 80? 

 

What am I missing? Why is he being discounted so much?

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Hopefully he said “i pooped”

Over the final 2 1/2 weeks of last season, Scooter slashed 184/245/306. That’s pretty bad. If we’re throwing out streaks, should we throw that one out too? Or is it not long enough? Not cold enough? O

Woah am I just stupid? What is going on with Scooter??    2017: all star level 2b/3b .295, 27 homers, 97 RBI, 80 runs 2018: all star level 2b .310 23 homers, 92 RBI, 86 runs 2019:

Advanced stats don’t love Scooter. In 2017 he had an insane 20.9 HR/FB%. That was sure to regress in 2018 and it did, down to 13.8%. He hit 4 fewer HRs in 141 more PA and his ISO dropped 56 points.

 

He made up for it by reducing his K rate from 22.8% to 19.6%, and increasing his BABIP to .358. The K rate gains are sustainable but the BABIP probably is not. He’ll be helpful in average but isn’t likely to hit .310 again.

 

His 86.1 average exit velocity is not exciting and he definitely benefits from his situation. GABP makes it easier to hit HRs and batting after Votto is huge for RBIs. As long as he stays in Cincy he should be good for about .290-20-80-90, but we’ve probably already seen his career year. If the Reds struggle and decide to trade him, his value likely takes a big hit.

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Even if we have seen his career year already, which I don't necessarily disagree with, the numbers you projected still make him a slightly lesser version of Rendon at a much much cheaper cost. Add in the benefit of being eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF in yahoo formats and his value is much greater than Rendon who is going on average nearly 40 picks earlier. If you're in leagues where you have MI/CI roster spots he allows for a lot of flexibility with your roster. I'll be owning him for sure this year even if I have to take him slightly sooner than his current ADP.

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3 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

He still has 3B and OF eligibility in Yahoo? He didn’t play a single game at either position last year. I would think he’s 2B only in most formats.

 

My mistake. I was only looking at his eligibility from last year. He only played 2B and acted as DH a few times. My point about him being a slight downgrade in stats from Rendon remains even without the dual position eligibility. 

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Don't really get this comparison to Rendon, hes simply a better pure hitter than scooter in just about every way. 

 

ops was 50 points higher the last two years

His OPS+ was 139 and 136 the last two years vs scooters 123, 124.  

Avg exit velocity last year was 90.6(50th overal) for rendon vs 86.7(243rd) for scooter

Hell Rendon led the league in double last year with just 136 games played with 44 and scooter only had 30 in 154 games, while also hitting 1 less hr than rendon 

 

In the end, everything points to Rendon getting even better than he has been, while everything for scooter points to him hopefully repeating last year, while his babip kind of points to some regression.

 

All this being said I am a scooter fan and own him in both of my dynasty leagues.  I do foresee regression but when someone seemingly defies the odds for 295 straight games, you gotta just ride the wave and expect him to continue to find ways around his fallacies.  I think the .290-80-20-90 line is a great prediction and where he is going in redraft leagues seems to make sense simply because his potential upside isn't much more than that.  in the earlier rounds you usually want guys with higher ceilings than him.

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I think the comparison simply came from Scooter’s counting stats being a cheap version of what Rendon did last year which I can see. I wasn’t saying they are equal or close to equal caliber hitters. Rendon is far better but Scooter is putting up really good numbers. 

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13 hours ago, LivingOnTheEdge said:

I don't know why he is discounted so much but he's my guy

 

I couldn’t believe how much he was discounted last year. Without trying, I drafted him in all five of my leagues because no one else seemed to want him. Round 20-21, still there. People have a hard time believing he’s for real. He’s not nearly as discounted this year, but I think he’s established as a reliable, safe pick for where he’s going, and many still don’t believe. Going to give you an AVG boost with good power, RBI and runs at 2B or MI. 

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His incredible 3 weeks in May and mediocre other 5 months could suggest that May was an outlier, and 2018 will not be repeated.

He Started only 143 Games despite not losing any games due to injury.
I would think it is wise to plan accordingly.

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7 hours ago, JCD said:

His incredible 3 weeks in May and mediocre other 5 months could suggest that May was an outlier, and 2018 will not be repeated.

He Started only 143 Games despite not losing any games due to injury.
I would think it is wise to plan accordingly.

 

How does 2017 apply in your logic

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23 hours ago, taobball said:

 

How does 2017 apply in your logic

 

That he did the same?
You say somehow he will have one great month every season?

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37 minutes ago, JCD said:

 

That he did the same?
You say somehow he will have one great month every season?

 

No, I'm saying I don't think you're interpretation of the last two years is very accurate. 

 

Scooter made massive leaps v. LHP and breaking pitches the last two years. He has ebs and flows in a season, same as the majority of players. But after two years of hitting .290+ with decent power, I think we've seen plenty both on the surface and underneath that give me confidence in Gennett's abilities moving forward. 

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13 minutes ago, TheTruth024 said:

ZiPS projections are .278/.325/.455 with 21 hr's and 5 sb's in 545 AB's.  Seems about right to me.  I you like those numbers from your 2B, go for it.  If not, pass.

 

I mostly agree, but he's hit .295 and .310 the last two seasons, so I think at least .288-.292 is a bit more fair. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

No, I'm saying I don't think you're interpretation of the last two years is very accurate. 

 

Scooter made massive leaps v. LHP and breaking pitches the last two years. He has ebs and flows in a season, same as the majority of players. But after two years of hitting .290+ with decent power, I think we've seen plenty both on the surface and underneath that give me confidence in Gennett's abilities moving forward. 

 

Well, after removing the white hot streak and replacing it with merely good numbers the projection is a .285 - .290 hitter with 20 - 22 HRs and Runs+RBIs accordingly.
Pretty much what most projections go with, so it seems like they eliminated that improbable to repeat streak too.

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2 hours ago, JCD said:

 

Well, after removing the white hot streak and replacing it with merely good numbers the projection is a .285 - .290 hitter with 20 - 22 HRs and Runs+RBIs accordingly.
Pretty much what most projections go with, so it seems like they eliminated that improbable to repeat streak too.

 

Over the final 2 1/2 weeks of last season, Scooter slashed 184/245/306. That’s pretty bad. If we’re throwing out streaks, should we throw that one out too? Or is it not long enough? Not cold enough? Or do you just throw out hot streaks and leave the cold ones in?

 

And what if instead of having an 1139 OPS in May, Scooter only had a 1000 OPS. Would he get to keep it? Would hitting 3 less home runs last May have made him more likely to be successful this season? Where’s the statistical line that officially creates a hot streak and starts rendering a player’s impressive performances invalid?

 

Removing hot streaks is dumb. Every plate appearance matters. Good ones being clustered together doesn’t make them any less significant than if they were spread out.

 

Scooter is projected by most to have a worse season than last year because his .358 BABIP isn’t supported by his peripherals, not because his best month is arbitrarily disregarded.

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1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

 

Over the final 2 1/2 weeks of last season, Scooter slashed 184/245/306. That’s pretty bad. If we’re throwing out streaks, should we throw that one out too? Or is it not long enough? Not cold enough? Or do you just throw out hot streaks and leave the cold ones in?

 

And what if instead of having an 1139 OPS in May, Scooter only had a 1000 OPS. Would he get to keep it? Would hitting 3 less home runs last May have made him more likely to be successful this season? Where’s the statistical line that officially creates a hot streak and starts rendering a player’s impressive performances invalid?

 

Removing hot streaks is dumb. Every plate appearance matters. Good ones being clustered together doesn’t make them any less significant than if they were spread out.

 

Scooter is projected by most to have a worse season than last year because his .358 BABIP isn’t supported by his peripherals, not because his best month is arbitrarily disregarded.


Dumb you say? Well slumps happen all the time to everyone. Not counting on it is dumb.
White hot streaks like this are rare. Counting on it is dumb.

 

"Or do you just throw out hot streaks and leave the cold ones in?"

I did replace that hot streak with good numbers, as I clearly stated. Totally disregarding that fact is dumb.

"Where’s the statistical line that officially creates a hot streak and starts rendering a player’s impressive performances invalid?"

Maybe where it becomes statistically improbable. Maybe you should ask those projection systems, that project 20 HRs that leave no room for an 8-9 HR month.

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2 hours ago, JCD said:

 

Maybe where it becomes statistically improbable. Maybe you should ask those projection systems, that project 20 HRs that leave no room for an 8-9 HR month.

 

Problem with arguments based around projection systems is that... we can't. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 1/31/2019 at 11:25 AM, to_be_quite_frank said:

Scooter Gennett broke out in 2017 with a .295 AVG, 27 HR, 97 RBI, 80 R, and 3 SB. He proved that those numbers were legitimate in 2018 by almost matching those numbers identically: .310 AVG, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 86 R, and 4 SB.

 

The Reds lineup could be really dangerous in 2019 with the additions of Puig and a full season of Winker. 

 

He was ranked 37th last year in 5x5 roto and 48th last year.

 

Why is his FantasyPros ECR 86? Why is his ADP 80? 

 

What am I missing? Why is he being discounted so much?

 

im a scooter fan.  his ADP is bad because he doesnt steal bases and plays a position where people want steals.

 

his BABIP was high but he increased his line drive rate and hard contact, while decreasing soft contact.  i like the reds ballpar and lineup.

im planning on drafting Aldaberto Mondesi in a bunch of leagues for the steals, and then getting Gennett to bring up my average.

 

if mondesi goes something like 240 BA 20hr and 50 sb and gennett matches the last two years, your middle infield is giving you about 45 hrs and 55 sb with a respectable 270 avg

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  • 1 month later...
1 minute ago, BleedRedsRed said:

 

Seemed like he was having a lot of groin pain. I hope he's alright but from a fantasy perspective this might be good for Senzel owners.

Wow would they hold Senzel now? Senzel doesn’t play second base??

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