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George Valera OF CLE


kmoore1521
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17 hours ago, cjenvy said:

Do we think there is any real room for growth in his K rate or is he a 220-240 30 hr kind of guy at best

He has a 21.8% k rate at A+ This year, that’s respectable and no the reason for his avg woes.  Which by the way aren’t terrible as he’s hitting .252 with a .371 obp.  His biggest problem I see is a a 25% Infield Flyball rate.  That’s just awful.  Like really really bad.

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6 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

He has a 21.8% k rate at A+ This year, that’s respectable and no the reason for his avg woes.  Which by the way aren’t terrible as he’s hitting .252 with a .371 obp.  His biggest problem I see is a a 25% Infield Flyball rate.  That’s just awful.  Like really really bad.

i guess i question how real the 21.8 is tbh as nothing ive seen shows him doing anything different from the stuff that has him near 30 pct+ on his career so far

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1 hour ago, cjenvy said:

i guess i question how real the 21.8 is tbh as nothing ive seen shows him doing anything different from the stuff that has him near 30 pct+ on his career so far

What does this even mean?  K rate stabilizes pretty quick, usually within 100 PA which he has already surpassed this year.  What are you “seeing” that says he should be striking out more than he is?  Also you’re talking about his “career”, which is actually just 52 games in 2019 when he was 18 years old and one of the youngest players in his respective league.  When, by the way, he put up a 142 WRC+ in Low A, which was an aggressive assignment for him at the time.

But yeah let me know what you’re “seeing” to suggest his k rate isn’t legit.  The guy pops the ball up too much.  Simple as that.

If you want a worthwhile opinion, that I guess may answer your first question.  He does most likely have the profile of a .250 hitter with a great OBP and 30+ hr powers which in most leagues is a stud.

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2 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

What does this even mean?  K rate stabilizes pretty quick, usually within 100 PA which he has already surpassed this year.  What are you “seeing” that says he should be striking out more than he is?  Also you’re talking about his “career”, which is actually just 52 games in 2019 when he was 18 years old and one of the youngest players in his respective league.  When, by the way, he put up a 142 WRC+ in Low A, which was an aggressive assignment for him at the time.

But yeah let me know what you’re “seeing” to suggest his k rate isn’t legit.  The guy pops the ball up too much.  Simple as that.

If you want a worthwhile opinion, that I guess may answer your first question.  He does most likely have the profile of a .250 hitter with a great OBP and 30+ hr powers which in most leagues is a stud.

And almost all of the good things you mentioned were pre injury afterwards absolutely putrid 

and as of today after 89 games and 301 ab he is sitting at a shiny 30.23 k rate which if you didn't know is not good 

now you made a good point with his obp as his BB rate is 16 pct 

but his swing and his approach at the plate while also explaining the infield fly rate also explains the k rate but doesnt explain the BB rate hence why i asked

 

OF is always deep to crack through i just wanted to know if we were looking at joc pederson joey gallo or austin meadows as barometer for the type of career his going to have as those are 3 very different trajectories and profiles each with their own risk for a roster

no need to be so defensive because you are an indians fan 

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He was a hyped prospect so his numbers are not overly impressive.  That said, he is in High A playing the entire year as a 20 year old.  Let's not lose sight of that, because that is extremely important when looking at the caliber of pitching he is seeing.  For sure, he will absolutely need to show progress on the swing and miss if he wants to have future success.  Still, I would be more concerned if he was 23 in AA or AAA and whiffing at that rate.  

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15 hours ago, cjenvy said:

And almost all of the good things you mentioned were pre injury afterwards absolutely putrid 

and as of today after 89 games and 301 ab he is sitting at a shiny 30.23 k rate which if you didn't know is not good 

now you made a good point with his obp as his BB rate is 16 pct 

but his swing and his approach at the plate while also explaining the infield fly rate also explains the k rate but doesnt explain the BB rate hence why i asked

 

OF is always deep to crack through i just wanted to know if we were looking at joc pederson joey gallo or austin meadows as barometer for the type of career his going to have as those are 3 very different trajectories and profiles each with their own risk for a roster

no need to be so defensive because you are an indians fan 

I’m not an Indians fan, just trying to make sure you’re not spreading misinformation here…

But seriously where are you now getting 30.23 k rate?  His career k rate right now is 24.9% through 90 games and taking out his rookie year as you seem to have it sits at 25.6%.

The only time he has had a K rate over 30% was when he got promoted to A ball as an 18 year old and unsurprisingly struggled a bit.

I know in this day and age we really want to see prospects with low k rates, but ~25% isn’t going to kill a prospect or a major leaguer.

Valera doesn’t seem to be the hitting prodigy some dubbed him as a couple years ago, but he hasn’t exactly done anything too wrong to not think he can progress and become a sold MLB player.

For fantasy purposes I’m much more interested in him in OBP leagues, as his bb% numbers are great, so even if he settles in as a .250ish hitting the power and obp will play

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40 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I’m not an Indians fan, just trying to make sure you’re not spreading misinformation here…

But seriously where are you now getting 30.23 k rate?  His career k rate right now is 24.9% through 90 games and taking out his rookie year as you seem to have it sits at 25.6%.

The only time he has had a K rate over 30% was when he got promoted to A ball as an 18 year old and unsurprisingly struggled a bit.

I know in this day and age we really want to see prospects with low k rates, but ~25% isn’t going to kill a prospect or a major leaguer.

Valera doesn’t seem to be the hitting prodigy some dubbed him as a couple years ago, but he hasn’t exactly done anything too wrong to not think he can progress and become a sold MLB player.

For fantasy purposes I’m much more interested in him in OBP leagues, as his bb% numbers are great, so even if he settles in as a .250ish hitting the power and obp will play

its down to 29.93 after last night

304 ab 91k

 

https://calculator.name/percentage-calculator/91$304

 

now regardless of the debate over the k rate im going to infer based on your profiling that you think his profile is a current joey gallo type player 

Edited by cjenvy
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1 minute ago, kelle1sa said:

K% uses Plate Appearances instead of At Bats

my bad wish I had my stats guy around because he can find out what every one of those non AB Pa's were in like 3 and a half minutes flat as if its all ibb it greatly changes things and reinforces the gallo profile above

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I mentioned him in another thread, which got me looking at his numbers and found something I don't think I've ever seen before. He has 13HR and a .281 ISO, which is great, but only has 5XBH outside of his HR and only one of them is a double. 13HR and 1 double in 53 games. It's probably not that big of a deal, but usually I like to see guys hitting a ton of doubles even if they are big power guys. He does have the 4 triples as well, which I imagine are due to his speed and would likely be doubles for most other guys but I'm a little more worried about him being even more all-or-nothing than I thought he was yesterday. Are we looking at a Joey Gallo type?

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his recent bat-flip moment was Hollywood-esque (ABC Family??) but I don't think the skillset quite matches the swagger. At this point I'm thinking his realistic ceiling is around Justin Upton level, which ultimately is a mighty fine player, relatively speaking, but someone whose baseball cards I'm looking to sell before the superstar "glow" fades from the general public's eyes. Ultimately I think he'll peak as a slightly better Kole Calhoun. 

(For what it's worth, I am invested in three of his RC autos, and looking to flip two based on recent video and reports... but keep one for the 95th-percentile scenario where he becomes a studly Conforto-level outfielder.) 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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