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Tevin Coleman 2019 Outlook


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5 hours ago, Ruut6 said:

I’d say conservatively they split 50/50 to start the season in terms of carries, but the real difference maker is in the passing game and goal line. Coleman will be used similarly to how Shanahan used him in 2016, with more carries. Get him out in space for chunk yardage, match him up with a slower LB and let him run. But also just have a stranglehold on the goal line work.

Prediction is 195/800/9 on the ground with another 40/480/3 in the air.

Vs. 170/730/3 and 30/270/1 for Breida.

 

So you think he’ll end with 1300 yards and 12 TD’s???? That puts him right there with Conner, Mixon, Gurley, and Cook projection range and squarely a low end RB1. Those are awfully lofty expectations. 

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Make yourself useful and predict 30 points next time

Here's my math on Coleman: Shanahan RB touches the last 5 years 2018 - 364 rushes / 66 targets / 53 rec 2017 - 345 rushes / 124 targets / 80 recs 2016 - 345 rushes / 105 targets / 85 rec

Hot off the presses! This is huge for my retroactive points league, thanks Marty.

2 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

So you think he’ll end with 1300 yards and 12 TD’s???? That puts him right there with Conner, Mixon, Gurley, and Cook projection range and squarely a low end RB1. Those are awfully lofty expectations. 

With Shannahan in 2016 in Coleman was able to score 11 times in 13 games. He ended up with 941 yards and 31 catches as well, so it is possible for him to hit 12 touchdowns under Shannahan. I personally don't believe it will happen. I wouldn't be shocked to see Coleman have 1000 total yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. 

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1 minute ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

With Shannahan in 2016 in Coleman was able to score 11 times in 13 games. He ended up with 941 yards and 31 catches as well, so it is possible for him to hit 12 touchdowns under Shannahan. I personally don't believe it will happen. I wouldn't be shocked to see Coleman have 1000 total yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. 

 

I get the enthusiasm b/c he’s playing for Shanny, but that Atlanta team was 2nd in the league in total offense at 6650 yards and 1st in pts/gm at 34/gm! And they went to the SuperBowl. You’re setting yourself up for disappointment if you’re using his role on that team as a barometer. 

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I’ve owned Coleman for a few years now, and thinking he would be a “feature” back last year in a good offense, I watched most of his games. First off, he’s about as straight of a straight line, upright runner as there is. If he gets in space, he can take it to the house Ill give him that. But at the goal line, he sucks. As in bad. Too lazy to look up the metrics on that, someone correct me if I’m wrong (at least last year). Can’t tell you how frustrating it was to see him repeatedly get stuffed at the GL only to see Ito f***in Smith vulture the TD or see Ryan sneak it in after 2 failed Coleman attempts (Coleman ended up with only 4 rushing TD’s). Have a feeling you’ll see a lot of Breida at the GL. Oh and finally, be prepared to see a TON of limping off to the sideline. Happens seemingly EVERY game. Happened at the most crucial time last year, week 16 championship week. Never came out after halftime and Brian Hill ran for 115 yards.....in one quarter!! Can you tell I’m bitter? Cost me the chip’.

 

Anyway, tantalizing “tools” but hate his situation and that’s all he is, “toolsy”. Very overrated IMO. Would much rather take a shot on Breida at his ADP. Admittedly though, I’d much rather stay away from this mess. But hey, I’ll take anyone at the right price. The better price is prob on Breida. 

 

 

Edited by Sonny_D
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4 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

I’ve owned Coleman for a few years now, and thinking he would be a “feature” back last year in a good offense, I watched most of his games. First off, he’s about as straight of a straight line, upright runner as there is. If he gets in space, he can take it to the house Ill give him that. But at the goal line, he sucks. As in bad. Too lazy to look up the metrics on that, someone correct me if I’m wrong (at least last year). Can’t tell you how frustrating it was to see him repeatedly get stuffed at the GL only to see Ito f***in Smith vulture the TD or see Ryan sneak it in after 2 failed Coleman attempts (Coleman ended up with only 4 rushing TD’s). Have a feeling you’ll see a lot of Breida at the GL. Oh and finally, be prepared to see a TON of limping off to the sideline. Happens seemingly EVERY game. Happened at the most crucial time last year, week 16 championship week. Never came out after halftime and Brian Hill ran for 115 yards.....in one quarter!! Can you tell I’m bitter? Cost me the chip’.

 

Anyway, tantalizing “tools” but hate his situation and that’s all he is, “toolsy”. Very overrated IMO. Would much rather take a shot on Breida at his ADP. Admittedly though, I’d much rather stay away from this mess. But hey, I’ll take anyone at the right price. The better price is prob on Breida. 

 

 

I've similarly owned him for a long time. This week is the peak of his value every year, so if you're considering moving him do it now before he plays. Regardless of how theoretically perfect the outlook seems, it never comes together. 

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1 hour ago, Sonny_D said:

I’ve owned Coleman for a few years now, and thinking he would be a “feature” back last year in a good offense, I watched most of his games. First off, he’s about as straight of a straight line, upright runner as there is. If he gets in space, he can take it to the house Ill give him that. But at the goal line, he sucks. As in bad. Too lazy to look up the metrics on that, someone correct me if I’m wrong (at least last year). Can’t tell you how frustrating it was to see him repeatedly get stuffed at the GL only to see Ito f***in Smith vulture the TD or see Ryan sneak it in after 2 failed Coleman attempts (Coleman ended up with only 4 rushing TD’s). Have a feeling you’ll see a lot of Breida at the GL. Oh and finally, be prepared to see a TON of limping off to the sideline. Happens seemingly EVERY game. Happened at the most crucial time last year, week 16 championship week. Never came out after halftime and Brian Hill ran for 115 yards.....in one quarter!! Can you tell I’m bitter? Cost me the chip’.

 

Anyway, tantalizing “tools” but hate his situation and that’s all he is, “toolsy”. Very overrated IMO. Would much rather take a shot on Breida at his ADP. Admittedly though, I’d much rather stay away from this mess. But hey, I’ll take anyone at the right price. The better price is prob on Breida. 

 

 

 

I get avoiding Coleman but why would you avoid one of the most productive systems for RBs altogether when it can be had very cheaply?  If you're fading Coleman then you should be all over Breida at his ADP

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15 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

That seems mighty optimistic for Tevin for what I've seen to this point.

The split has been 62/38 in preseason. I don't love Coleman but I think he is about as good as RB3s get and has upside for more. 

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15 hours ago, Mr Rourke said:

I've similarly owned him for a long time. This week is the peak of his value every year, so if you're considering moving him do it now before he plays. Regardless of how theoretically perfect the outlook seems, it never comes together. 

Unless he's in a league full of dumbasses then Coleman's trade value is not in a place to make the trade worth it. Best bet to to hang in there now and see what happens. Maybe he rockets out of the gate with a long run. THEN consider selling.

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38 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Unless he's in a league full of dumbasses then Coleman's trade value is not in a place to make the trade worth it. Best bet to to hang in there now and see what happens. Maybe he rockets out of the gate with a long run. THEN consider selling.

Obviously depends league to league, team to team, etc. In a 3wr/1flex full PPR I moved him for Edelman last week to an rb-starved team. In some leagues, hes being viewed as a surefire, high upside RB2. I just don't see it. I think if you can find someone still intoxicated with his unlimited upside, seize the day!

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I think it more relies on the competition in the league. If he has poor competitors then fleece away, not only with TC. Every season I send out feeler offers to gauge where everyone is at. If I perceive weakness then full steam ahead. Get it done.

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55 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

I think it more relies on the competition in the league. If he has poor competitors then fleece away, not only with TC. Every season I send out feeler offers to gauge where everyone is at. If I perceive weakness then full steam ahead. Get it done.

This time of year is tough, specially 1 to 1s. No one is gonna want to trade you X for Y if Y got picked after X. If Y got picked before X, then people are suspicious bc how come you're trading for a worse player? They think you think your guy is gonna be a busy so you want to dump him off on them. Everyone is still in love with their sleepers and hidden gems too so they don't want to trade them either.

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17 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

He's like the casual fling chick you want to keep around at an arms reach, but isn't exciting at all, 

And that ultimately you realize you would have rather just gone out with the uglier chick because she puts out more.

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Brieda's injury history is a major factor that people aren't giving enough consideration. The 49ers would be wise the only use Brieda as a compliment in hopes of keeping him available throughout the season. He's just not built to be the guy and while Coleman isn't exactly the second coming of Barry Sanders, the volume he's likely to receive combine with his career averages suggests a fantasy asset in the mix for the top 20 RBs. Most people in more advanced leagues are likely scared of him and so there is potentially value to be had in rostering him in those situations. 

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Unofficially, Breida is listed as the starter, not Coleman.

  • Tevin Coleman is listed behind Matt Breida on the 49ers' "unofficial" depth chart.

    Teams will always tell you these don't matter, but the 49ers had to list someone No. 1, and it was not their big free agent addition. Breida unquestionably had the more buzz-worthy camp. Both players figure to see at least 10 touches in Sunday's opener against the Bucs, but all signs continue to point toward Breida as the superior long-term investment.

    RELATED: 
    Sep 3, 2019, 4:45 PM ET
     
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Edited by Gryfter
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4 hours ago, Gryfter said:

Unofficially, Breida is listed as the starter, not Coleman.

  • Tevin Coleman is listed behind Matt Breida on the 49ers' "unofficial" depth chart.

    Teams will always tell you these don't matter, but the 49ers had to list someone No. 1, and it was not their big free agent addition. Breida unquestionably had the more buzz-worthy camp. Both players figure to see at least 10 touches in Sunday's opener against the Bucs, but all signs continue to point toward Breida as the superior long-term investment.

    RELATED: 
    Sep 3, 2019, 4:45 PM ET
     
  •  

Good to know for this week but I think Coleman will pay off later in the season. Glass man will miss games.

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Thanks, @AJ92. Some good work there. To add on some encouraging tidbits. Glad we’re having good discussion here aside “X is a JAG, my guy is the guy to own, everyone else are sheep.”

   1.   In 15&16 under Shanahan in ATL, Coleman averaged 4.8 YPC (2nd in NFL for qualifying RBs) on outside zone runs vs. Freeman’s 4.1 YPC. SF ran outside zone the second-most in the NFL last year. It’s a big part of Shanahan offenses.

   2.   The last season with Shanahan (2016), Coleman averaged 2.58 yards per route run, highest in the NFL.

   3.   In 2018, Coleman generated a 135.0 (2nd highest for NFL RBs) passer rating when targeted by Matt Ryan. He had just been targeted less than under Shanahan the past two years most likely due to OC scheme.

   4.   From 2016-2018, Coleman produced 64 fantasy points over expectation from just receiving targets per PFF. His ability as a receiver is stupidly underrated because, frankly, he just didn’t get targeted a lot last year. He has been hyper efficient as a receiver his entire career.

   5.   Coleman’s touches per TD in 2016 under Shanahan was 13.1. With 225 touches, that would put him at over 17 TDs. That 13.1 number will come down because Coleman will be more heavily involved, but I expect 10+ TDs at minimum because he is just purely a better goal line back than Breida. He’s bigger, more consistently gets the short yardage, consistently falls forward for positive yards, and has a history of prolific scoring.

 

While I’m not going to sit here and act like one is the “back to own” or whatever the popular phrase is around here, all indications are that Coleman has significantly outsnapped Breida with Jimmy G under center between preseason and training camp. While Breida may be a better outside rusher and has the home run ability, Coleman’s touches in the outside zone, goal line, and outside matched up with LBs one on one (thanks in advance Shanahan) should have him scoring at will and picking up chunk yardage in the passing game. Both are good options but I like Coleman certainly to win the fantasy battle. This is all assuming full health as well which is quite the issue for Breida.

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16 minutes ago, jason20000 said:

I have both Coleman and Breida in my PPR, just not sure who to start this week...

Toss up. TB gave up the 4th most rushing TDs last year. If SF is winning in the 2nd half, both Breida and Coleman probably end up top 60 flex options.

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Breida is the more explosive back. Perhaps Breida is injury prone, but he is one tough son of a gun. He played most of last year with an ankle sprain, re-injured it every other game, and kept coming back. I dont know if he is injury prone, butI know he can play through pain. 

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