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Mike Clevinger 2019 Outlook


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2 days later....

can establish?  He already is.

The Indians team physician is named Dr. Chicken Dance?  Well, that's reassuring.  Maybe they'll get a second opinion from Dr. Macarena.   I'll see myself out.

13 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

anyone else think he can establish himself as a top 20 arm?  200 innings, 200ks last year with 13 wins.  

 

yea i really like where he is going and targeting everywhere

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31% increase in workload last year...28 yrs old though and TJS well in the rear view. 4 pitch mix with all grading out above average.

Unreal that the Angels just tossed him to CLE for a mediocre pen rental, kudos to CLE for his development.

He actually got better in the 2nd H last year too...yet still seems *semi* underrated imo.

Improved his command/control quite a bit last year.

He really suppresses hits, but that BABIP and esp 80% strand rate seems too good to maintain, about the only negative I can see?

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

31% increase in workload last year...28 yrs old though and TJS well in the rear view. 4 pitch mix with all grading out above average.

Unreal that the Angels just tossed him to CLE for a mediocre pen rental, kudos to CLE for his development.

He actually got better in the 2nd H last year too...yet still seems *semi* underrated imo.

Improved his command/control quite a bit last year.

He really suppresses hits, but that BABIP and esp 80% strand rate seems too good to maintain, about the only negative I can see?

 

yes but dont good pitchers with swing and miss stuff often strand runners and have lower than average BABIPs?

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11 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

yes but dont good pitchers with swing and miss stuff often strand runners and have lower than average BABIPs?

Igoring it has a lot to with how good the FB is and how its used. Good Sliders on average are best at getting swing and misses...but good change ups on average are the best weak contact pitch.

 

 

 

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Went as SP (21) in a recent ESPN 'expert' mock...though I did notice that Carty and his BAT projections have him at 66th ranked SP for this year. Really all over the map...I am still on board. Being he's 28, what do others think his dynasty value is?? Just curious.

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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

I did notice that Carty and his BAT projections have him at 66th ranked SP for this year.

 

I think you're misreading the ADP column.  He's 66.8 according to whatever ADP data Fangraphs is using.  The projections page doesn't really assign a conventional ranking, but you can use projections to generate auction values using the Fangraphs auction tool, and if you use ATC to calculate values for a 12 team mixed league using the default settings, you get an auction value of $10, or about SP32.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Went hitting with my first 5 picks and snagged him 57th in a 10 team roto. Taillon went ahead of him and I didn't want to risk it. Dude is a rare combo in today's game of 200IP and 200K potential, and should finish anywhere between SP8-15. Seems like a safer option than guys going around his ADP (Stras/Pax). Finished last season tied for the AL lead in shutouts and was top 10 in all your standard stats (Ks, IPs, ERA, fWAR). As long as he can stay around his 2018 performance, this is a value pick in the 6th round and a low tier ace for your staff. 

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On ‎2‎/‎8‎/‎2019 at 9:45 AM, lupiene said:

Don’t understand why he doesn’t get more love. Have been very happy with him in my dynasty these past two seasons. Would be the clear cut ace on a lot of other staffs. 

 

I wonder if this has anything to do with it.  He's the 4th Cleveland SP going in drafts, which is just crazy to think about.

 

I grabbed him as my SP2 at 59 this past weekend.  Took him right after Taillon went and Flaherty & Stras were the next 2 SPs to go later that round.

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22 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I wonder if this has anything to do with it.  He's the 4th Cleveland SP going in drafts, which is just crazy to think about.

 

I grabbed him as my SP2 at 59 this past weekend.  Took him right after Taillon went and Flaherty & Stras were the next 2 SPs to go later that round.

And going up against number 4 pitchers at first for a nice extra edge.

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4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

And going up against number 4 pitchers at first for a nice extra edge.

 

That would be the case for the first start, maybe the second.  After that, probably not a factor.

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Just now, 89Topps said:

 

That would be the case for the first start, maybe the second.  After that, probably not a factor.

Yeah I never prescribe to that line of thinking...after April off-days and weather related cancellations...it's just not a factor (being a whatever number starter for a team v another)

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Just now, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

Yea I don't understand why people continue to post that kind of stuff

 

I'll give @Magoo the benefit of the doubt, cause he's no rube.  I assume he just meant the first week or two of the season.  Probably didn't even warrant a response on my part.

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Will have a lot of starts vs. weak division opponents. Was a top 20 guy last year and him and Bauer are always in the lab trying to get better. Way undervalued on Yahoo at his ranking of 83.

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57 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

Yea I don't understand why people continue to post that kind of stuff

I look for any edge even if it’s only for a few starts (hence the word “first”). Thanks.

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It's the weakest division in baseball and it's not close. The Twins are the best bats he's gonna face? Royals White Sox and Tigers are bottom 5 offenses in both leagues. 

All 3 of his changeup slider and curveball are good pitches. His fastball is average. That's why he doesn't get the credibility. The fastball.

 

Any improvement in command will counterbalance any unlikely regression that won't occur. You can draft this guy as your ace.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
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