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Josh Allen 2019 Outlook


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Perhaps the wind will make him accurate.

Decent weeks...he was the #1 scoring fantasy QB over that time, I’d say he was pretty decent...   Allen has the upside to be the #1 fantasy QB for 2019. Not saying it’s going to happen but i

Best QB of the 2018 NFL Draft, as I said it before that draft.    

7 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Really? He has made some really really bad drops, I don't see that changing.

 

Lots of really good recievers have bad drops. I don't put much stock into 2017, was playing through an injury. And last year he had Allen. Not saying he will be some stud, I just don't think he has really had a proper chance yet.

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Lots of really good recievers have bad drops. I don't put much stock into 2017, was playing through an injury. And last year he had Allen. Not saying he will be some stud, I just don't think he has really had a proper chance yet.

Yeah but he has been outshone by Foster, if the issue was just the QB and quality of throws JAGs shouldn't be outperforming him consistently.

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....maybe Foster isn’t a JAG, though?  He was graded as literally the best rookie WR in the league as soon as they started actually integrating him into the offense in Week 10.

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41 minutes ago, BMcP said:

....maybe Foster isn’t a JAG, though?  He was graded as literally the best rookie WR in the league as soon as they started actually integrating him into the offense in Week 10.

And that could be the case. Zay still had a higher target share over the last five weeks and did less. So I believe there is still the argument that shows Zay doesn't have the potential to be really good because he had more opportunity than Foster.

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5 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

And that could be the case. Zay still had a higher target share over the last five weeks and did less. So I believe there is still the argument that shows Zay doesn't have the potential to be really good because he had more opportunity than Foster.

 

Definitely arguable - until Allen reaches a point where he’s able to throw with any semblance of accuracy, we are all just guessing here at the relative caliber of these WRs.  I suppose my point was more that what Foster accomplished was almost unbelievable given how terrible Allen’s targeting was.  I know the following is a bit lengthy, but I found it quite informative for purposes of understanding how truly awful Allen was this past season as a passer:

 

“At PFF, one of our advanced metrics of tracking quarterback play is called adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws where the QB is hit on his release. Allen ranks last among qualified QBs with a 62.1 adjusted completion percentage, and when he’s under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage plummets to 45.2 percent (he’s the only QB at less than 57.0 percent in terms of adjusted completion percentage under pressure)."

 

"He’s struggled with his accuracy when targeting players who are in tight coverage: His 39.0 adjusted completion percentage on throws to receivers who are either in tight coverage, have a defender closing in on them or have just a step of separation on their coverage defender also ranks last.

 

"In relative terms, he’s also been one of the least efficient QBs when it comes to hitting the target when the receiver is either open or wide open, with his 85.0 adjusted completion percentage on those throws ranking 38th. His accuracy struggles don’t really favor any specific depth of the field either, they’ve persisted all over. Allen ranks 32ndamong QBs with an 82.1 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling no more than nine yards in the air; he ranks 37thwith a 52.9 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling between 10 and 19 yards in the air; and he ranks 32nd with a 32.4 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling 20 or more yards in the air.

 

"In addition to adjusted completion percentage, one of our more advanced quarterback statistics at PFF involved a process in which we chart every throw for accuracy, allowing us to further break down a QBs ball placement beyond completion percentage to see who’s placing the ball accurately – hitting receivers in stride, leading them away from defenders – compared to passers who are getting catchable balls to their playmakers – making a receiver reach back across his body to catch a ball, taking away YAC opportunities – and those who are throwing uncatchable balls.

 

"When we break down the throws from those 39 qualified QBs, Allen ranks 37th with 53.9 percent of his passes falling into the accurate bucket (the NFL average is 61.9 percent)."

 

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I just started digging a little deeper into the analytics and was surprised that Foster had higher quality/catchable throws than Jones. My assumption was that Jones had the easier/high percentage routes. I also wouldn't have assumed that those intermediate routes ranked so low in Allens accuracy.

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3 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Yeah but he has been outshone by Foster, if the issue was just the QB and quality of throws JAGs shouldn't be outperforming him consistently.

 

Small sample size and a lot of variables there. I'll just agree to disagree, don't think Zay is worth arguing about. 

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43 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

I just started digging a little deeper into the analytics and was surprised that Foster had higher quality/catchable throws than Jones. My assumption was that Jones had the easier/high percentage routes. I also wouldn't have assumed that those intermediate routes ranked so low in Allens accuracy.

 

Another fun fact on Foster: he averaged 20 YPC (which I believe would have been the highest in the NFL had he qualified for the catch minimum) as well as 3.65 YPRR.  Considering the majority of his targets were 20+ yards downfield, and he provided a 144.7 passer rating during that second-half stretch, he may be someone to take a very long look at as a breakout in this offense next season.

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I can't remember where i read it, but someone put together a good data crunch on slot Zay vs outside Zay, and there was a vast improvement in his performance in the slot. 

I have to imagine there will be some new weapons for Josh, but its hard to say who.  You can justify multiple WR's mixing in, a new TE, and a new RB.   Or, they could go cheap on all those, roll with what they have, and instead go for a few new expensive OL toys.     

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

So after FA, what do we think? Additions of Brown and Beasley, as well as help on O-Line. Think Allen can step it up a bit? Hoping they draft more O-Line help in Rd 1.
Just acquired Allen in a standard scoring dynasty league for Mike Gesicki (homer).

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On 3/23/2019 at 7:07 PM, RNGDShobby said:

So after FA, what do we think? Additions of Brown and Beasley, as well as help on O-Line. Think Allen can step it up a bit? Hoping they draft more O-Line help in Rd 1.
Just acquired Allen in a standard scoring dynasty league for Mike Gesicki (homer).

 

Allen to me is a QB2 with weekly QB1 upside because of the rushing.   Very, very much matchup dependent, with a seriously low weekly floor.  Of the additions, I only really like Brown and Morse as somewhat impactful.   The rest of the OL are pedestrian, though likely better than the guys they'll replace of course.   

I'm sure you can look at his hot streak late last year and see a guy who maybe can put it all together and crack the upper echelon.   It has to be noted that their schedule was top heavy- they played a lot of bad teams in that run, including a couple that were just cruising and didn't care to try hard.   

That said, I want him at least once, though paired with a safe QB.  He's fun. 

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Teams will also have had all off season to study Allen and it is conceivable his rushing could be limited next season. We see it happen all the time with sophomore and junior QB's.

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22 hours ago, devaster said:

Teams will also have had all off season to study Allen and it is conceivable his rushing could be limited next season. We see it happen all the time with sophomore and junior QB's.

 

Yeah I think it's feasible that he gets worse and just doesn't have it.

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I believe he we have a great fantasy season for one reason. Garbage time. This team still isn't great and they will be down 2tds in the 4th a whole lot. He will run for 25 yards and get a TD either rushing or passing on the last drive and either save his week or really pad his average stats. Similar to eli manning last year but I'd think of him more as a Blake Bortles from a couple years ago. I believe 2 seasons in a row Blake finished as a top 10 qb but anyone with eyes knew he sucked and his garbage time saved his year. And the occasional big game would bolster his hype. "4 td game against the Steelers" 

Josh allen was also the most raw rookie qb in years. He got drafted solely on potential. He could jump a few tiers on just having some actual coaching and not playing back yard football like he has his whole life. 

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  • 1 month later...

I didn't realize that Robert Foster (#23) and Zay Jones (#19) were both top 25 per game PPR fantasy scoring WR from weeks 10-17 to end the season (they only played 7 games each as BUF bye was week 11).

Now BUF has added more weapons in John Brown and Cole Beasley plus one of the better receiving RB in Yeldon.

If you expect any type of year 2 improvement in the passing game (which I do), plus the huge added bonus of the high rushing totals, then Allen should finish as top 12 fantasy QB.  He's currently being ranked and drafted well outside of that range.   

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3 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

I didn't realize that Robert Foster (#23) and Zay Jones (#19) were both top 25 per game PPR fantasy scoring WR from weeks 10-17 to end the season (they only played 7 games each as BUF bye was week 11).

Now BUF has added more weapons in John Brown and Cole Beasley plus one of the better receiving RB in Yeldon.

If you expect any type of year 2 improvement in the passing game (which I do), plus the huge added bonus of the high rushing totals, then Allen should finish as top 12 fantasy QB.  He's currently being ranked and drafted well outside of that range.   

 

I agree and plan on drafting him in the late rounds based on his upside potential.  I think his surrounding cast is much improved and his rushing numbers can't be causally ignored. 

And as the previous poster stated:  Garbage time means padding stats and I want a piece of that.    

 

 

  

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I think Josh Allen's many complete dud games last season illustrate that he's no sure thing even in garbage time situations.  I can think of literally one garbage time TD he threw all season.   

I also think this defense is one of the better ones in the league, and they're not getting blown out often enough for someone to anticipate garbage time being a regular thing.    I'd bet a large amount of internet dollars, and perhaps a few real ones, that Allen is much more productive for you in a game where the score stays close.   

 

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On 3/31/2019 at 10:58 PM, Stonej14 said:

I believe he we have a great fantasy season for one reason. Garbage time. This team still isn't great and they will be down 2tds in the 4th a whole lot. He will run for 25 yards and get a TD either rushing or passing on the last drive and either save his week or really pad his average stats.

Why is he running when he's down 2 TD's in the 4th quarter?

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3 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

I didn't realize that Robert Foster (#23) and Zay Jones (#19) were both top 25 per game PPR fantasy scoring WR from weeks 10-17 to end the season (they only played 7 games each as BUF bye was week 11).

Now BUF has added more weapons in John Brown and Cole Beasley plus one of the better receiving RB in Yeldon.

If you expect any type of year 2 improvement in the passing game (which I do), plus the huge added bonus of the high rushing totals, then Allen should finish as top 12 fantasy QB.  He's currently being ranked and drafted well outside of that range.   

I wouldn't exactly call Cole Beasley a "weapon"

 

I also wouldn't expect anywhere near the same rushing averages so I think that caps his possible "improvement" in the passing game.

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4 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

 

If you expect any type of year 2 improvement in the passing game (which I do), plus the huge added bonus of the high rushing totals, then Allen should finish as top 12 fantasy QB.  He's currently being ranked and drafted well outside of that range.   

 

He's not really. FFC is showing an 11th round ADP and the 15th QB taken.

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4 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

I agree and plan on drafting him in the late rounds based on his upside potential.  I think his surrounding cast is much improved and his rushing numbers can't be causally ignored. 

And as the previous poster stated:  Garbage time means padding stats and I want a piece of that.    

 

 

  

He's not good enough to be a reliable starter and too volatile to be a streamer. You have no idea what you wil get from him week to week. I would rather stream DAk-Dalton-Cousins-carr

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  • 1 month later...

I thought this Matt Berry blurb was great- as he started getting deeper into the topic I thought of Allen even before he started the A-B thing.   Was fairly obvious where he was going after that:

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/27054210/100-facts-2019-fantasy-football-season

Quote

 

QB "A" has, to be kind, no business being a starting NFL quarterback. That's right. That's my nice way to describe him. Oh, don't get me wrong. He led the NFL in some categories. Like off-target throws. Yep, no one had a higher percentage of off-target throws last season. You want bad stats? I've got bad stats. He was among the two worst qualifying quarterbacks in: yards per pass attempt, touchdown-to-interception ratio and interception percentage, resulting in a (surprise!) bottom-two rank in both overall and deep passer rating. On a per-game basis, he was a bottom-five QB in passing yards, passing touchdowns and passing attempts. He never threw for more than 245 yards in any game last season and had just two games with multiple TD passes. And he's injury-prone, as he's missed at least four games in each season he's played in the NFL. No doubt in large part because of his own putrid play, he's on a brutal offense that last season was third-worst in the NFL in offensive points per game, third-worst in third-down conversion percentage and fourth-worst in Total QBR. So yeah, you can draft this guy, but then you need to ask yourself: What did your fantasy team ever do to you? Yuck.

Meanwhile, QB "B" is a fantasy rock star in the making. Per Tristan H. Cockcroft's great Consistency Ratings, our guy was tied for sixth in "star" games, which marks a top-two finish at his position for the week, giving him as many or more dominant games last season than Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. I love his big arm, as he led the NFL in aDOT (average depth of target), and it's only going to get better this season. His team added an elite speed receiver, whose NFL career average of 15 yards per catch is 18th among 113 qualified WRs over the past five seasons, better than players such as Tyreek Hill and A.J. Green, among many others. But it's not just about deep balls, as the team also added a great possession guy this offseason. A player who, since 2014, is top-seven in the NFL in slot touchdowns and slot fantasy points and second in reception percentage (among the 33 WRs with at least 250 catches in that span). Giving QB "B" even more weapons is awesome and only adds to the excitement over a guy who can single-handedly win you a week. He scored at least 26 fantasy points in 36% of his starts last season. Only Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan had higher rates. More mobile than he gets credit for, did you know our guy quietly had seven runs of 25-plus yards last season, second only to Saquon Barkley? He could run even more this season, which means this dual-threat QB is ready to once again crush for you

 

Quote

QB "A" is Buffalo's Josh Allen.

QB "B" is ... also Buffalo's Josh Allen.

 

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