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Josh Allen 2019 Outlook


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14 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I thought this Matt Berry blurb was great- as he started getting deeper into the topic I thought of Allen even before he started the A-B thing.   Was fairly obvious where he was going after that:

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/27054210/100-facts-2019-fantasy-football-season


It's a great read, obviously the jury is still out. Similar to Lamar Jackson, the rushing totals are not sustainable across a 16-game season. But with a few new offensive weapons, and upgraded offensive line, the gaudy rushing stats are likely to be offset by more passing yards. I have Allen as my QB2, and cautiously optimistic that he'll continue to develop. Buffalo has one of the weakest schedules in the league this year, so he'll have lots of opportunities for big games. 

 

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Perhaps the wind will make him accurate.

Decent weeks...he was the #1 scoring fantasy QB over that time, I’d say he was pretty decent...   Allen has the upside to be the #1 fantasy QB for 2019. Not saying it’s going to happen but i

Best QB of the 2018 NFL Draft, as I said it before that draft.    

If he's healthy all summer, and the offense looks even pedestrian in preseason, i'm in.   He's got a great schedule to start the year- Jets, Giants, Bengals.    We'll know fairly well by then if Allen is a guy worth keeping on your roster at that point.  If not, hopefully its early enough that most other guys are content with their QB's and the waiver wire is still bountiful.  

In an idyllic situation, i can get him alongside another QB that's safe.  Its pretty easy to do this in auction. 

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I probably wouldn't be comfortable going into 2019 with Allen as my starting QB, but at his current price I would have no problem grabbing him late and throwing him on the bench. Last season he rushed for 631 yards and 8 TDs in only TWELVE games, with a YPC of 7.1. If he can continue at anything close to that pace, we could be looking at historic QB rushing figures. 

The Buffalo air attack obviously isn't scaring anybody, and Allen will almost certainly have some weak outings in terms of passing numbers but his ability to dominate on the ground presents what I see as a massive ceiling for a guy who can be had on the cheap. If the Bills passing game somehow surprises us in 2019, we could be looking at one of the steals of the draft. 

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9 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

I probably wouldn't be comfortable going into 2019 with Allen as my starting QB, but at his current price I would have no problem grabbing him late and throwing him on the bench. Last season he rushed for 631 yards and 8 TDs in only TWELVE games, with a YPC of 7.1. If he can continue at anything close to that pace,

Realistically he can't. IIRC nobody in the NFL has ever kept up anything close to such a pace (Kordell Stewart anyone?). And targeting a QB more because of his rushing than passing is a dangerous strategy IMO. Only worth a look in deeper leagues.  

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11 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

I probably wouldn't be comfortable going into 2019 with Allen as my starting QB, but at his current price I would have no problem grabbing him late and throwing him on the bench. 

Jets, Giants, Bengals are pretty tame matchups for him to have out of the gate. I would feel pretty confident with him as a streaming QB to start the season.

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7 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

Josh Allen is the perfect QB2. I usually dump on most things Buffalo, but Allen has the "it" factor.

 

Looking forward to The Broken Rankings.   Release date?    

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

Looking forward to The Broken Rankings.   Release date?    

Haha, don't hold your breath. My interest in fantasy football (season long) has dropped thru the floor.

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1 hour ago, Br0kenB said:

Josh Allen is the perfect QB2. I usually dump on most things Buffalo, but Allen has the "it" factor.

This. Especially if he slips a bit in your draft, he is the ultimate low-risk, huge reward type of player at that position. With maybe as many "established" fantasy QBs as we've even seen going into a season, I envision Allen falling much lower than his current ADP of ~11th round in a lot of drafts. 

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Yuck.   

This guy reeks of second year flop.    These cute running qbs who barely make one read before bolting are seldom long for success in the nfl.    

It works for a while tho....until the tape gets around.  

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44 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Yuck.   

This guy reeks of second year flop.    These cute running qbs who barely make one read before bolting are seldom long for success in the nfl.    

It works for a while tho....until the tape gets around.  

 

Agree with this. This guy had a 52% completion percentage, 10/12 TD:INT ratio, and was only fantasy relevant because of his 600+ rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs. Even as a QB2 i'm not comfortable relying on him during a bye week because as much as he could put up 100 rushing yards and 2 TDs, he's just as likely to go 16/32 200 yds 2 INTs. I like him in late rounds for best ball, i'm not touching him in redraft.

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55 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

These cute running qbs who barely make one read before bolting are seldom long for success in the nfl.    


I never thought of Josh Allen as cute, but whatever helps with your QB rankings... 

At any rate, here's an interesting tidbit. Cam Newton in 2016 had a career low 52.9% completion rate.
Josh Allen was nearly identical -- 52.8% in his rookie year. 

The common denominator -- Kelvin Benjamin was the #1 WR.

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10 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Yuck.   

This guy reeks of second year flop.    These cute running qbs who barely make one read before bolting are seldom long for success in the nfl.    

It works for a while tho....until the tape gets around.  

 

Im not a fan of him either. Terrific physical talents but the accuracy is really worrisome. That being said the Bills OL and WRs was arguably the worst in football last season and they have made some nice additions, so Im at intrigued to see what he does in his 2nd year. 

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7 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Im not a fan of him either. Terrific physical talents but the accuracy is really worrisome.  

I'm not too concerned.

As with anything, there's always another side to the numbers. I know for a fact, as I watched a good amount of Allen last year, that he put up some really nice throws and some exceptional deep shots, many of which were let down by the inability of the receivers in question.

Now, this doesn't affect every single attempt obviously, but there were a lot of throws that should have been caught and, as such, would have reflected positively on both his accuracy and yardage numbers.

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I agree with some of these evaluations. The Bills offensive line and receiver play last year was completely bad. There were better college teams at o-line and WR than what the Bills put out last year. They are night and day better this year and Allen's flashes last year combined with the additions all over the offense this year have me really excited for him as a QB2 with low-end QB1 upside in spots. 11th round ADP is way too high though, I think that is too early. But getting him in 13th, or even 12th would be a huge steal to stash him behind one of the more established guys.

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1 hour ago, Br0kenB said:

11th round ADP is way too high though, I think that is too early. But getting him in 13th, or even 12th would be a huge steal to stash him behind one of the more established guys.

I've found that QB ADP is a relative concept. Every league has it's own identity as far as when QBs start coming off the board, and then you see them go in spurts. For example, FFC currently has K. Murray as a 7th rounder, Wentz as an 8th rounder, etc, and I know damn well that guys on that tier are not going in single digit rounds in my main league.

I believe a better indication of where a QB's perceived value lies (at least in July) is where he ranks amongst other players at his position in ADP. He's currently 16th for QBs and I actually have him ranked a bit higher than that. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Only concern is that he's athletically stupid, tries to do too much and doesn't slide and take what the defense gives him. He abuses his body on the run a lot, and with that said im all in on Allen

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Lol, love the phrase athletically stupid.   Here's the thing, do you dare coach him out of it?   That recklessness leads to his best production.    Some guys just do better when they improvise and scramble all over the place.    I say let him loose, try to polish it up where you can, but let him be what he is, and hope for the best.  

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8 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Lol, love the phrase athletically stupid.   Here's the thing, do you dare coach him out of it?   That recklessness leads to his best production.    Some guys just do better when they improvise and scramble all over the place.    I say let him loose, try to polish it up where you can, but let him be what he is, and hope for the best.  

 

I agree. Maybe teach him to slide and to hit a check down every now and then. Its not like his team is loaded with weapons he needs to run Around for 30 seconds and make an off balance throw in order to make plays.

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22 hours ago, CABLE87 said:

Only concern is that he's athletically stupid, tries to do too much and doesn't slide and take what the defense gives him. He abuses his body on the run a lot, and with that said im all in on Allen

 

It's pretty much the same stuff I wrote about him before he was drafted:

 

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/692842-new-york-jets-2018-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=7814392

 

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/692842-new-york-jets-2018-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=7814483

 

The Bills don't seem to have changed anything about him.

 

I'd really like to see what he could do if the Bills paired an elite receiving option with him.   If the Chiefs are really considering trading Tyreek, the Bills should get them on the phone.

 

(I'll also mention "Athletically stupid" is great).

Edited by Iron-cock
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I have him as a later round keeper in a 2QB league and excited about it. But...I also had Jake Locker as a QB keeper many years ago and felt great about that...

As much as people will crap on him as a pure(not) passer, he's ultra athletic and those guys can be big-time fantasy assets at QB. Downside is as big as the upside so I wouldn't count on him as my QB1 but the big fantasy upside is definitely there

 

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Allen and Beasley is the thing to watch this year.  I'm no Beasley fan but he gets open.   If Allen can't effectively use him and move chains without his legs, that's a troubling sign.    On that same note, if he can add a short passing game as, well, not a strength, lets not go nuts, but just, less of a weakness, that'll be a big help.   

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On 7/26/2019 at 3:29 PM, BrianM said:

Allen and Beasley is the thing to watch this year.  I'm no Beasley fan but he gets open.   If Allen can't effectively use him and move chains without his legs, that's a troubling sign.    On that same note, if he can add a short passing game as, well, not a strength, lets not go nuts, but just, less of a weakness, that'll be a big help.   

 

I hope they get Devin Singletary in there, and Allen gets the checkdowns to him

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