Jared Goff 2019 Outlook

[smeeze 6,282]

1 minute ago, Tugginroot said:

Probably should've had at least one more TD.  Whether is be the Woods one, the TE down at the 1 (Gurley vulture) etc.  Would have been a decent fantasy day with one extra TD, especially in Seattle.

Yep, he easily could have had 3 or 4. Probably should have. Should be among the QB1 ranks RoS.

[yanksman 3,781]

Slow start but he looked good. Numbers should've been much better. 

[The G Man 1,118]

I think we should all consider ourselves lucky. He's very inconsistent, and God help him/us if anything happens to Kupp. 

That said, he had a decent night FP wise. And yes, he should've had at least one more TD. But, I'll take it. 

Next week he gets the 9er's at home. I guess you have to start him unless you have better options (I don't!) since it's a home game. But, 9er's D no joke. 

[Heizz 90]

The way the game went, numbers could have been a lot better. TDs called back, long catches to the 1 yard line then being ran in - nearly ran in the 2pt. But thats fantasy for ya.

 

It kind of made me feel better moving forward, knowing that it could have been a much better day fantasy wise.

[SenatorSpaceman 2,523]

8 hours ago, Heizz said:

The way the game went, numbers could have been a lot better. TDs called back, long catches to the 1 yard line then being ran in - nearly ran in the 2pt. But thats fantasy for ya.

I totally agree. That sequence of events later in the 3rd quarter was incredibly impactful to his fantasy night. Everett scores on a long catch and run but is somehow called down at the one inch line which is NOT challenged because LAR obviously doesn't want to waste a challenge on 1st and goal from the one inch line. Gurley scores. LAR go for two, Goff runs in it, play is reversed. 

That's a half dozen fantasy points off the board. For Goff owners like myself, who were playing against Gurley.....it was a much larger swing in points. But like you said, that's fantasy in a nutshell. At least I own Kupp as well in that league lol. 

Ultimately I'm not concerned about Goff. He hasn't looked perfect, but how many fantasy QBs this season look like they'll be elite all year long? Less than usual by my estimation. Goff plays on a good offense with great weapons. I have him in a platoon with Rivers but I would feel at least "okay" about starting Goff in any given week ROS. 

[miasma16 3,344]

1 hour ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

how many fantasy QBs this season look like they'll be elite all year long?

The difference is that Goff has looked like garbage in 4 of 5 games. You can't say that about any QB1s, or many QB2s. Any that you can say that about are much better runners than Goff.

[SuperJoint 4,233]

Goff was decent last night. I think one thing is hurting him - the gimme rushing TDs that Gurley gets in the red zone. Since Gurley is no longer being used much as a pass catcher most of his RZ TDs are handoffs rather than receptions. The Rams (wisely) heavily favor the run inside 10 yards.

[ponchsox 1,800]

The good news for Goff in fantasy is when he puts up a dud his floor is 300 yards and a TD while other QB's their floor is like a buck fifty passing.

[1972Miamidolphins 1,388]

If goff gets dropped in any of my leagues I'm picking him up like an iPad surrounded by 4 free password wifi signals

[1972Miamidolphins 1,388]

1 minute ago, ponchsox said:

The good news for Goff in fantasy is when he puts up a dud his floor is 300 yards and a TD while other QB's their floor is like a buck fifty passing.

So a dud now is 300 yards and a td?

 

sign me up, the 2020 draft would remind me of the 2012 draft after the collective bargain holdout created many 5000 yard passers in 2011 as the new norm and qbs went 1st round

[ponchsox 1,800]

7 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

So a dud now is 300 yards and a td?

 

sign me up, the 2020 draft would remind me of the 2012 draft after the collective bargain holdout created many 5000 yard passers in 2011 as the new norm and qbs went 1st round

He's thrown for over 900 yards in his last two games and people want to cut him, lol.

[mbell317 464]

1 minute ago, ponchsox said:

He's thrown for over 900 yards in his last two games and people want to cut him, lol.

Despite all of that he will be, what, around the 12-15th best QB in fantasy (going off of fantasy points) after this week? 

He's only exceeded 20 fantasy points ONCE in 5 games. Despite probably averaging more throwing attempts than any QB.

He's a good middle of the pack QB. Let's not pretend he is elite. He is not going to win you a week but he also likely won't lose you the week. Which is great if you weren't able to get a good QB like Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, etc. 

[miasma16 3,344]

1 hour ago, mbell317 said:

Despite all of that he will be, what, around the 12-15th best QB in fantasy (going off of fantasy points) after this week? 

He's only exceeded 20 fantasy points ONCE in 5 games. Despite probably averaging more throwing attempts than any QB.

He's a good middle of the pack QB. Let's not pretend he is elite. He is not going to win you a week but he also likely won't lose you the week. Which is great if you weren't able to get a good QB like Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, etc. 

Agree with most of this. This? Nah. It's all about value. And his owners spent too much on him for his production to be replaceable by streamers.

[martinjlm 1,685]

My fav part about owning Goff? I get to finally sit him during his BYE week and pickup a higher ceiling streamer.

[mbell317 464]

11 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Agree with most of this. This? Nah. It's all about value. And his owners spent too much on him for his production to be replaceable by streamers.

Yeah it's all relative to what you spent on him. I would say he's a good value if you got him off the FA list. 

I was being a little sarcastic when I said "which is great" etc. 

[martinjlm 1,685]

31 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

My fav part about owning Goff? I get to finally sit him during his BYE week and pickup a higher ceiling streamer.

I hope everyone knows I was just kidding there.

 

 

 

 

 

I actually don't have a fav part about owning Goff.

[kyoun1e 1,050]

Goff is my #2 right now behind L. Jackson. 

I like what I saw Thursday night. The schedule looks like it is opening up and he's got a ton of weapons. Also, looks like the O line just isn't doing it's thing like last year and the D seems a little softer. May mean more throwing.

I like how Goff's schedule aligns with Jacksons, but considering trading him. [...] 

Edited October 5, 2019 by tonycpsu
Removed Assistant Coach content

[ap0calypse 124]

12 hours ago, mbell317 said:

Despite all of that he will be, what, around the 12-15th best QB in fantasy (going off of fantasy points) after this week? 

He's only exceeded 20 fantasy points ONCE in 5 games. Despite probably averaging more throwing attempts than any QB.

He's a good middle of the pack QB. Let's not pretend he is elite. He is not going to win you a week but he also likely won't lose you the week. Which is great if you weren't able to get a good QB like Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, etc. 

 

A QB who is capable of throwing this many attempts for just under 500 and 400 yards back to back is certainly capable of winning you a week.  In fact, the last two weeks have shown that he has a ton of upside.  His TDs are under expectation, and those should increase as well assuming he still is asked to throw this much.

[miasma16 3,344]

58 minutes ago, ap0calypse said:

A QB who is capable of throwing this many attempts for just under 500 and 400 yards back to back is certainly capable of winning you a week.

Yeah, he threw 117 passes. He should have 800-900 yards. Should he have had 5 turnovers?

58 minutes ago, ap0calypse said:

His TDs are under expectation, and those should increase as well assuming he still is asked to throw this much.

Are you actually assuming that? He's not going to be pushing 60 attempts per game. His TDs are low and his pass attempts are inflated. Both will move towards the median, but he's a high-end QB2 ROS, one that you can start at home and that you plant on the bench on the road (which is what you should've done last year when his blocking was far better than it is this year).

Edited October 5, 2019 by miasma16

[mbell317 464]

1 hour ago, ap0calypse said:

 

A QB who is capable of throwing this many attempts for just under 500 and 400 yards back to back is certainly capable of winning you a week.  In fact, the last two weeks have shown that he has a ton of upside.  His TDs are under expectation, and those should increase as well assuming he still is asked to throw this much.

Obviously it depends how we define "capable of winning you a week". But I would say that it means an extraordinary point total. And for a QB that would have to be at least 30 points. Right? Well again, Goff has only exceeded 20 one time...when he had 23.68 vs. Tampa Bay in a 55-40 loss. 

Why should we assume that the TDs will increase? You didn't give a reason that we should actually assume that.

I think it's more reasonable to assume his fantasy production will remain around the same as it has been through 5 games. All of those attempts have a price: increased probability of throwing interceptions. Which is probably why on 68 attempts in week 4 he had 3 interceptions. 

It would actually be better for him if the Rams had more of a balanced attack so the defense wasn't just waiting for a pass on almost every play. 

He's averaging 17.652 points per game as of now. If we are generous and say he can average 18-20 from here on out, that's still a low end QB1, high end QB2.

Edited October 5, 2019 by mbell317

[TrillaTrilla 104]

Who likes him vs San Fran? That D is looking pretty nasty. 

 

Thinking about rolling with Minshew magic instead vs NO

[smeeze 6,282]

1 hour ago, TrillaTrilla said:

Who likes him vs San Fran? That D is looking pretty nasty. 

 

Thinking about rolling with Minshew magic instead vs NO

Not feeling great about starting him. My other QB is Josh Allen and he's on a bye. The only semi-appealing option on waivers is Kirk Cousins, so I'll probably just roll with Goff and hope for the best.

[liyy1 12]

I didn't feel great about starting him vs SEA, but did so anyways because I figured he could at least score 15 points, and I wasn't confident any of the QBs on the WW could do that. I kind of feel the same way this week against SF. A great front 7 that will consistently be in Goff's face. He should at least score 15?  Or I go Minshew or Cousins.

 

I'm even starting SF's DST with confidence in another league. lol.

[afl5013 420]

19 hours ago, smeeze said:

Not feeling great about starting him. My other QB is Josh Allen and he's on a bye. The only semi-appealing option on waivers is Kirk Cousins, so I'll probably just roll with Goff and hope for the best.

That's where I'm at, although I'm fine starting him since it's in LA. 

This is a big game for the division and I feel like the Rams need to come out and establish dominance. 

[Heizz 90]

Starting Goff and SF dst.....

 

Hate both options but don’t have anything better.

 

Is this a recipe for disaster?