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Todd Gurley 2019 Outlook


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The Rams paid this guy a lot of money and they know for a fact that he has something wrong with his knee. They are going to continue to manage his workload to get him through his contract healthy so they can get SOMETHING out of him and then move on

Edited by Bluecore
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You mean the phantom thigh bruise they reported because his arthritic knee was acting up? Yeah, sure...he's good to go. 

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This is worst case scenario with Gurley. He was kind of a wild card going into drafts this season. If they have him the volume he’s easily be a RB1, and possibly a high one. But if they scale him back, which they are he basically becomes a RB2 with a really low floor if he is only getting 10-15 touches a game.

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We knew his touches would be limited going into the season. The problem is he isn't doing much with the touches he is getting. If he was playing at his previous levels he could still be a RB1 on 15 touches a game.

Goff did get the sneak but I believe Gurley got the carry the previous play and was stopped just short.

Edited by Ace_King
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Just now, Ace_King said:

We knew his touches would be limited going into the season. The problem is he isn't doing much with the touches he is getting. If he was playing at his previous levels he could still be a RB1 on 15 touches a game.

 

15 touches for a RB is pretty dicey. You better hope he beaks one or scores a TD on only 15 touches. Just not a huge fan of RB’s who don’t get the volume.

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9 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

 

15 touches for a RB is pretty dicey. You better hope he beaks one or scores a TD on only 15 touches. Just not a huge fan of RB’s who don’t get the volume.

 

True but he was at 22-23 the previous two years. If you get the Gurley of 2017 or 2018 at even 65 percent of the volume he will still be a RB1, albeit a back end one. Last year he averaged 131 yards a game and scored 21 TDs in 14 games. If you scale those numbers back to 65 percent you are still at 85 yards a game and 14 TDs. TDs are fickle but if he remains efficient he can still get to 80-90 yards a game on 15 touches.

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This offense just isn’t as explosive as last year. I was hoping Gurley would be efficient with his touches, but a combination of things just hasn’t allowed it. I’m trying to ship off Gurley where I can. I still think he’s got a decent floor. I just get so frustrated every time I watch the Rams. It seems like it’s one thing or another whether it’s brown, play calling, Goff being a potato, etc. 

 

edit - I also feel like he’s hardly catching any passes out of the backfield this year compared to last. Not sure if the numbers prove that, but that’s what it seems like. Goff is in love with Kupp too so maybe while Kupp was out, Gurley was catching those catches. Now that he’s healthy, it limits gurleys catches? 

Edited by mvttchew
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14 minutes ago, mvttchew said:

edit - I also feel like he’s hardly catching any passes out of the backfield this year compared to last. Not sure if the numbers prove that, but that’s what it seems like. Goff is in love with Kupp too so maybe while Kupp was out, Gurley was catching those catches. Now that he’s healthy, it limits gurleys catches? 

If it helps, even in the games where Kupp was healthy last year Gurley was still averaging 5.125 targets and 3.75 receptions a game. There were no games without passing work.

Edited by Espoiral
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Just now, Espoiral said:

If it helps, even when Kupp was healthy last year Gurley was still averaging 5.125 targets and 3.75 receptions a game. There were no games without passing work.

Gotcha, thanks for the note. So far this season, he’s gotten 6 targets with 4 receptions for 8 yards. Gurley did so much damage last year on dump offs and his catches, so this new trend is definitely concerning.  

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21 minutes ago, mvttchew said:

Gotcha, thanks for the note. So far this season, he’s gotten 6 targets with 4 receptions for 8 yards. Gurley did so much damage last year on dump offs and his catches, so this new trend is definitely concerning.  

 

In the playoffs last year he also had 4 receptions for 5 yards on 7 targets, so in 6 games post knee injury that adds up to 8 receptions for 13 yards.

 

Pre-knee injury he had 59 receptions for 580 yards last year in 14 games. It seems like the knee injury has rendered him ineffective in the passing game, or its no longer part of the gameplan. In the game tonight he seemed to really take a while to get out of the backfield to get open on pass plays.

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3 hours ago, FreakFries said:

Do you think they will start increasing M Brown’s touches? 

It’s my understanding that the entire Rams offense is predicted on a solid run game and play action. Seems like it’s not working right now. 

I think it's more of an O-Line issue than anything. Lost a key guy in FA and starter Bythle has been banged up

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https://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/40677/rams-offense-has-work-to-do-despite-road-victory-3-0-start

 

Troubling Trend, Part II: The offensive line. The unit underwent a significant offseason makeover when left guard Rodger Saffold departed in free agency and the team declined the option on center John Sullivan's contract. On Sunday, with right guard Austin Blythe sidelined because of an ankle sprain, the Rams had three first-year starters on the interior of their line with left guard Joe Noteboom, center Brian Allen and right guard Jamil Demby. The run-game suffered, as five players rushed for a combined 91 yards, and Goff was under duress throughout the game.

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Why would anyone be buying Gurley? You should be selling if your smart. You really think it’s going to get better toward playoffs? He might not even play the last few games if the rams have a playoff spot locked in. Then there’s the risk of him injuring that knee any given game. 

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17 hours ago, vthokie3 said:

I think it's more of an O-Line issue than anything. Lost a key guy in FA and starter Bythle has been banged up

For at least the Browns game, the defense copied what stopped the rams in the super bowl.  The broadcast spent most of the night describing how that was being done and it was basically a goal line defense with a ton of defenders on the line in every hole with another line of dbs about 15-20 yards off.  It took away any rushes off the ends and therefore took away all of the play action that runs off of them as well.  Rams did adjust in the 2nd half and started running up the gut but I’m surprised they didn’t get any giant gashing runs from it.  It did however open up play action a bit.  2018 rams were equally dangerous running and passing.  But 2019 rams really don’t seem that scary on the ground.  Gurley has some nice 5-8 yard runs but no blow up runs... and no punishing runs.  I think they need to go with Malcom brown.  

Edited by matthew berry
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McVay just came out and said, I am paraphrasing, "I need to do a better job getting this guy going."  

This is highly encouraging to me.  I think that McVay is trying to balance his offense more and not rely on Gurley so much.  I do believe that the attempt was to have the offense run through Goff and that ain't just gonna work.  This offense is built through Gurley and it needs to continue to do such.  Perhaps this means that McVay will add some more screens, dump offs, etc that will really get Gurley out into space and get him moving.  Another positive sign is that these types of plays are completely non-existent to all the RBs.  I am on the verge of trading Gurley for Carson but after reading McVay eat humble pie in front of the press....I think that there might be something here.  I honestly don't think the knee is the worry here - I think it is the playcalling and I am hoping that McVay starts to alter the plan.  I am holding Gurley for the time being - I see this ship turning around in the next two weeks. 

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TD dependent RB2.  It looks like "70%" of Todd Gurley isn't gonna do much for teams.

The team is 3-0, there is zero chance they "ride" this guy hard in the regular season.  Use his name and get what you can....

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14 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

TD dependent RB2.  It looks like "70%" of Todd Gurley isn't gonna do much for teams.

The team is 3-0, there is zero chance they "ride" this guy hard in the regular season.  Use his name and get what you can....

This is a great point. These are their matchups before their bye week:

TB, @Seattle, SF, @ATL, CIN

Division games are tough especially with SF playing well, but they could be potentially 7-1 or 8-0 at their bye.

Also, it's really a lose-lose situation for Gurley owners, because even in tough match-ups later in the season against teams like Chicago, do you think McVay would want to run Gurley 20+ times versus a ferocious front 7?

 

Edited by nonstopfan
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