Todd Gurley 2019 Outlook

[DLG10 849]

14 minutes ago, poofinger said:

Today we get a Gurley line that we’ve been waiting for.  I feel it!   Come back and celebrate with me in four and a half hours.  I’ll be here waiting.  

Probably will blow up now that I'm starting Edmunds.

[genya 88]

On 10/21/2019 at 2:47 PM, JE7HorseGod said:

Atlanta was bound to be one of the high water marks for this unit as run blockers, and they went 26 carries for 90 yards, and if you take out Goff's run, no TDs?

I mean they should beat up on Cincy's front on Sunday but after that:

Steelers

Bears

Ravens

Cardinals (here's maybe a good day?)

Seahawks

Cowboys

49ers

Check please.

 

Atlanta's rushing defense is 4th best in the league by DVOA, and better than every team you have listed there.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

[JE7HorseGod 2,688]

1 minute ago, genya said:

 

Atlanta's rushing defense is 4th best in the league by DVOA, and better than every team you have listed there.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

I am not entirely sure why I should care about DVOA.  They're yielding 113 yards per game on the ground and 8 TDs.  And if you watch them they clearly can't tackle and take terrible pursuit angles.

[FreakFries 1,395]

6 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I am not entirely sure why I should care about DVOA.  They're yielding 113 yards per game on the ground and 8 TDs.  And if you watch them they clearly can't tackle and take terrible pursuit angles.

I live in ATL and have to watch them play every Sunday. 
 

Atlana’s D is a abominable.

They are consistently horrible in every facet even in basic fundamentals like tackling. 
 

Don’t know what TG does ROS but as someone without NFL ticket I can tell you Atlanta’s D SUCKS and if someone pulled a stat out of their hat that says otherwise, that says a lot more about water boarding statistics then it does the Falcons D.

[genya 88]

10 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I am not entirely sure why I should care about DVOA.  They're yielding 113 yards per game on the ground and 8 TDs.  And if you watch them they clearly can't tackle and take terrible pursuit angles.

 

Theyre giving up some yards because theyre facing 30.9 opponent rushes a game (5th most in the league) because theyre 1-6. Their actual rushing defense is very good, as stated by DVOA and their 6th best YPC allowed at 3.7. Its misleading to call them a high water mark, its one of the better rushing defences the Rams will have faced.

[JE7HorseGod 2,688]

7 minutes ago, genya said:

 

Theyre giving up some yards because theyre facing 30.9 opponent rushes a game (5th most in the league) because theyre 1-6. Their actual rushing defense is very good, as stated by DVOA and their 6th best YPC allowed at 3.7. Its misleading to call them a high water mark, its one of the better rushing defences the Rams will have faced.

I've watched all their games.

They are not good.

The reason the YPC is low is because they're going down by huge amounts and team are running into stacked boxes in the second half to grind clock.

Do not hang your hat on this BS stat.  The other run defenses the Rams will be playing are absolutely better when the game matters.

[JE7HorseGod 2,688]

16 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

I live in ATL and have to watch them play every Sunday. 
 

Atlana’s D is a abominable.

They are consistently horrible in every facet even in basic fundamentals like tackling. 
 

Don’t know what TG does ROS but as someone without NFL ticket I can tell you Atlanta’s D SUCKS and if someone pulled a stat out of their hat that says otherwise, that says a lot more about water boarding statistics then it does the Falcons D.

100% same page.

I have no idea how OP can sell himself on the concept that Atlanta's run defense is somehow better than Dallas's or the Seahawks or even the Bears with their recent slide, but I am certain this is not the case.

[genya 88]

7 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

100% same page.

I have no idea how OP can sell himself on the concept that Atlanta's run defense is somehow better than Dallas's or the Seahawks or even the Bears with their recent slide, but I am certain this is not the case.

 

Stats dont lie. I watched the game too and saw the Rams O-line get blown off the line every run play. Even with the Rams O-line being bad, if the Falcons run D is as bad as you say they are they should still have been able to get some push.

Bears gave up overall RB2 and RB3 finishes last two weeks with Hicks out. Theyre a + matchup so far without him. Seahawks gave up 2TDs to Gurley in their first meetup, and his best fantasy score this year so far.

[JE7HorseGod 2,688]

17 minutes ago, genya said:

 

Stats dont lie. I watched the game too and saw the Rams O-line get blown off the line every run play. Even with the Rams O-line being bad, if the Falcons run D is as bad as you say they are they should still have been able to get some push.

Bears gave up overall RB2 and RB3 finishes last two weeks with Hicks out. Theyre a + matchup so far without him. Seahawks gave up 2TDs to Gurley in their first meetup, and his best fantasy score this year so far.

The Falcons have a terrible defense.  Anyone who has watched their games will tell you this.  Perhaps you can hope the Bears have fallen off to the point where they are also terrible, but I doubt it.  Perhaps you can hope the Rams put him in position to fall into the end zone a few times against some of these teams, I wouldn't count on it.

One thing we can agree on, the Rams run blocking is bad.

I'm done with the DVOA thing though, that's silly.

[MurderInc 588]

Gurley is what he is at this point. I find myself hoping that the Rams are playing from behind or are in a close game. When they go up by 2 TD's or more, they bring in Henderson more. If they are playing catch up, or barely holding onto a led, they keep Gurley in.

I have Gurley in both standard and full point PPR. He is definitely more valuable in standard due to his 7TD's this year. I'm surprised at his almost complete lack of usage in the passing game, but there are too many mouths to feed in the Rams offense with Kupp, Woods, Cooks, and now Everett coming on. 

 

 

[BeGreat 53]

Gotta be a close game for him to get touches and Goff has to be mediocre. If it’s a blowout he’s sitting on the bench.

[Rickydragon 270]

Yeah I think we’re done here.  The rest of his schedule is terrible and his playoff  schedule is bench city.  Maybe the Arizona or Seattle games are playable.  Goff never checks it down to Gurley for some reason, just ignores him and chucks it down field.  But he’ll throw it to Henderson.  

[cothane 201]

LAR are looking up at SEA and SF and currently on the outside of the playoff picture.  Don't they have to start leaning on him more down the stretch?  Schedule is tough, which is all the more reason to get one of your best players more involved.  I have a hard team seeing them lean on Henderson in vital season-defining games.  Anyone else feeling there's still some buy low opportunity here?

[Jetdog16 703]

5 minutes ago, cothane said:

LAR are looking up at SEA and SF and currently on the outside of the playoff picture.  Don't they have to start leaning on him more down the stretch?  Schedule is tough, which is all the more reason to get one of your best players more involved.  I have a hard team seeing them lean on Henderson in vital season-defining games.  Anyone else feeling there's still some buy low opportunity here?

Players don't get more healthy as the season goes on. I'm thankful I only drafted Gurley in one league. If you don't have him, don't start now. 

[atrium 1,182]

 

 

[Smoketheclay 130]

Gurley seems to be getting lucky with TDs each week.  He doesn’t get yards, just TDs.  Hard to figure him out this year - very TD dependent 

[Captain_Obvious 6]

1 hour ago, Smoketheclay said:

Gurley seems to be getting lucky with TDs each week.  He doesn’t get yards, just TDs.  Hard to figure him out this year - very TD dependent 

 

 

[Rickydragon 270]

I might just drop him right now or after the az game.  His schedule is crap.  I think the rookie is gonna get a lot of run now.  

[Ryansm11 2,123]

1 hour ago, Rickydragon said:

I might just drop him right now or after the az game.  His schedule is crap.  I think the rookie is gonna get a lot of run now.  

He’s about to be unleashed my dude 

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

Yeah - something is telling me that all this Darrel Henderson and Malcom Brown stuff is just noise.  This team is on the outside looking in.  Toughest division in the NFL.  49ers are rolling.  Seahawks are a high-flying offense that just added JG....my gawd.  Rams need to get back to what made the Rams great....dump passes, screen passes, and just giving Gurley the ball a 1000x a game.  You'd think they would test the waters on what worked last year. 

[Dr. Whom 3,052]

Their online sucks so they can’t run or pass well

[JE7HorseGod 2,688]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Their online sucks so they can’t run or pass well

It's terrible.

They're still on dial up and getting their email downloaded from CDs from AOL.

[Ryansm11 2,123]

19 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Yeah - something is telling me that all this Darrel Henderson and Malcom Brown stuff is just noise.  This team is on the outside looking in.  Toughest division in the NFL.  49ers are rolling.  Seahawks are a high-flying offense that just added JG....my gawd.  Rams need to get back to what made the Rams great....dump passes, screen passes, and just giving Gurley the ball a 1000x a game.  You'd think they would test the waters on what worked last year. 

I mean I feel like my point of view is blurred because of have Gurley, but at this point they are in danger of missing the playoffs. They need to unleash Gurley for the second half, they don’t have the luxury of resting him for the playoffs. It’s now or never for a team that just went all in on Ramsey. I think we see shades of 2018 Gurley the next few weeks. 

[owenmills 5,327]

1 hour ago, Rickydragon said:

I might just drop him right now or after the az game.  His schedule is crap.  I think the rookie is gonna get a lot of run now.  

It's a bold strategy but I like it. Maybe wait until closer to the fantasy playoffs in hopes your playoff opponent grabs him and nukes his week

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

39 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I mean I feel like my point of view is blurred because of have Gurley, but at this point they are in danger of missing the playoffs. They need to unleash Gurley for the second half, they don’t have the luxury of resting him for the playoffs. It’s now or never for a team that just went all in on Ramsey. I think we see shades of 2018 Gurley the next few weeks. 

 

Oh yeah, we have drunk the kool-aid but there really is limited choices on this Rams offense.  They are not that explosive when they limit his touches.