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Todd Gurley 2019 Outlook


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You mean the phantom thigh bruise they reported because his arthritic knee was acting up? Yeah, sure...he's good to go. 

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On 8/30/2019 at 1:38 PM, FitzMagic said:

Don’t forget the new look offensive line for the Rams. Not saying Cook is better than Gurley, but I’d rather have Cook and his cuff with clear upside, than Gurley and the junk behind him. Gurley’s knee is not going to be getting better. It is something that will be managed. Cook is 100% healthy, by all accounts. 

 

On 8/30/2019 at 2:32 PM, FitzMagic said:

Yes, 1st and 2nd round I’d take him over Gurley. One, because their injuries have been different and Cook’s was due to coming back too soon from ACL, not because he’s prone to injury. If he deals with injuries this season that keeps him out, then maybe that changes my outlook on him in the future. Second, Gurley has run with the same offensive line for two years. That’s not insignificant. Two of those guys are gone. It’s the same luxury Zeke has had. To say 60% of his production would be fine is assuming that losing a chunk of the o-line will have zero effect. I’m not safe with assuming that. Third rd and beyond I’d have a much harder look at Gurley depending on who is still available. I would have taken him over my pick of Gordon at that point, because 50% of Gurley is better than 0% of Gordon. However, he was selected two picks ahead of me.

 

On 8/30/2019 at 2:53 PM, FitzMagic said:

We will see how it shakes out. That’s why the season is played. We can argue all day about who is right or wrong. At the end of the day the production will speak for itself, whichever guy ends up being better this year. If you’d take Gurley in the first or second round, then that’s just the value you put on him. I personally feel better about Dalvin and his 2nd rd stock. I’ve seen people take CMC before Barkley. I don’t agree with it, but that’s just the value some people put on particular players. I think Gurley is great, just not someone I’m reaching on. 

Boy, was I right about Gurley/Cook and so wrong about about CMC/Barkley. At least based on the information though the CMC and Barkley debate was who should be drafted first overall and not whether you should reach on Gurley 1/2 rounds. I got laughed at for claiming the offensive line wouldn’t be the same and also that I’d dare to take Cook over Gurley because of his knee condition.

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37 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

 

 

Boy, was I right about Gurley/Cook and so wrong about about CMC/Barkley. At least based on the information though the CMC and Barkley debate was who should be drafted first overall and not whether you should reach on Gurley 1/2 rounds. I got laughed at for claiming the offensive line wouldn’t be the same and also that I’d dare to take Cook over Gurley because of his knee condition.

 

Yep, the general fantasy hivemind, when it comes to preseason ADP, is always backwards facing. ADP is essentially always a general reflection of the prior season's results. If you attempt to have any original thought on what might happen in the future, and it counters the recent past, you will be mocked. You really cannot let the past influence your judgment. It is imperative to center your focus on what is going to happen, rather than what happened, when making your picks. If you cave to the consensus you are going to have trouble finding value.

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As bad as it was, it was more on game script. Baltimore is unreal right now. I'm definitely considering playing Gurley against the Cardinals and hoping he resumes the heavy load from the prior week. I think he's only playable against mediocre and worse teams.

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Gurley is peaking at the right time. He's been dumped on a lot this year, but for me Gurley has returned value. I took him in the mid second round in both leagues I'm in and he's currently PRK#12 in standard leagues and PRK#14 in full point PPR. And those are as of last week, so he will most likely be higher after the close of Week 14. Looking at his game logs, he's only had a couple duds and he's been pretty steady most of the year. It's hard to find RB's who average close to a TD a game. 

Gurley came up big last Week 13 and huge this week. The Rams finally(?) realized that if they give Gurley 20-30 touches, they seem to win. The good news for Gurley owners is that the Rams play in the toughest division in football, and even though they are 8-5, they most likely need to go 10-6 to reach the playoffs. So Gurley is in line for a huge workload the rest of the way. Just no more Malcolm Brown 1 yard TD vultures please. Starting him with confidence in Week 15. 

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