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Tom Brady 2019 Outlook


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Just now, ThreadKiller said:

 

Lol, no worries.

 

Hey, what team do you root for?

Bears but if not them then generally the underdog.

 

id like to root for Brady, it's such a great sports career but dammit I just can't bring myself to do it 

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It depends what your definition of GOAT is. Honestly, i'm not too into NFL history like I am with the NBA so I can only speak from guys i've seen.  PERSONALLY, I rather have Rodgers and Manning.

Wow, you "Seattle sychophants" are angry people. I cannot stand Boston sports fans for the most part, but how about giving them the respect of calling them fans instead of "sychophants"? Lik

Logic always goes out the window when discussing Brady because if you don't like him you've already made up your mind on this years ago and nothing will change your opinion.. he could win two more Sup

  • 3 months later...

Brady should have retired after defeating the Lambs in the Superbowl.  Without Gronk and a year older is going to be ugly for fantasy.

Probably still decent in real life with Belichick, the defense, and that running game.

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Nothing wrong with 4,000 yards and i'll still bet on 30 overall TD's, but that's also something 15 QB's or so probably did last year.     There's something to be said about having a steady, semi productive QB that'll likely be cheap, and you know he's unlikely to get hurt and never going to get benched.  There's enough young talent there that you can pair Brady with a young upside QB for cheap, and you've got options at least.  

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22 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Nothing wrong with 4,000 yards and i'll still bet on 30 overall TD's, but that's also something 15 QB's or so probably did last year.     There's something to be said about having a steady, semi productive QB that'll likely be cheap, and you know he's unlikely to get hurt and never going to get benched.  There's enough young talent there that you can pair Brady with a young upside QB for cheap, and you've got options at least.  

Brady has not been cheap in my competitive league since 2006.  Doubt it starts now.

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

Nothing wrong with 4,000 yards and i'll still bet on 30 overall TD's, but that's also something 15 QB's or so probably did last year.     There's something to be said about having a steady, semi productive QB that'll likely be cheap, and you know he's unlikely to get hurt and never going to get benched.  There's enough young talent there that you can pair Brady with a young upside QB for cheap, and you've got options at least.  

 

The GOAT will never be cheap. 

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QB16 right now is cheap in my eyes, that's what FFC has it today.   Somehow Murray is ahead of him and that smells fishy, but nothing else on that chart surprised me.   Lot of folks shading him bc of no Gronk I guess?

 

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10 minutes ago, BrianM said:

QB16 right now is cheap in my eyes, that's what FFC has it today.   Somehow Murray is ahead of him and that smells fishy, but nothing else on that chart surprised me.   Lot of folks shading him bc of no Gronk I guess?

 

Murray will likely use his legs a lot which boosts qb value a ton. I’d say there is much more upside in Murray than Brady too. Too rich for my blood though for that unknown

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

QB16 right now is cheap in my eyes, that's what FFC has it today.   Somehow Murray is ahead of him and that smells fishy, but nothing else on that chart surprised me.   Lot of folks shading him bc of no Gronk I guess?

i'd suggest it's not the gronk thing, or at least not only gronk's retirement. i think it has more to do with brady's age and the perceived inclination of the patriots (to run more, pass less).

consider: in 2017, tom brady lead the league in pass attempts; TB12 was also 1st in pass attempts inside the 20 (and 4th in pass attempts inside the 10). brady was 1st in total yards, 3rd in total TDs.

in 2018, brady was drafted as a top QB but his numbers were a letdown:

brady went from 1st to 9th in pass attempts, from 1st to 6th in pass attempts inside the 20 (8th in pass attempts inside the 10). instead of being 1st in total yards, brady was 7th in total yards, 10th in TDs.

so 2018 is big decrease in brady's arm (in usage / production); and now, the narrative that "tom is old" and/or the patriots want to run seems built into his 2019 ADP.

as if the perceived narrative isn’t enough, the depressed ADP is also about recency bias, people drafting brady high in 2018 and getting burned. last year, in a game-by-game basis, brady had two games of less than 150 yards, eight games of 200-300 yards, and only four games of 300+ (and no games of more than 358 yards); he simply was not the tom brady everyone has seen year after year. also HALF of brady’s games in 2018 had one TD or less. can you see how this decreased production feeds the narrative that brady is old / the patriots are passing less?

for me, i don't believe the sunset years narrative that brady is a goner. yes, brady will be 42 in august, but he's also in great shape and has no nagging injuries. i love brady's double-digit ADP (currently late round 10), and i see positive regression coming.

1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Murray will likely use his legs a lot which boosts qb value a ton. I’d say there is much more upside in Murray than Brady too. Too rich for my blood though for that unknown

i liked murray in college, but the pros are bigger, faster, and hit harder. wouldn't be surprised if murray doesn't make it through 16 games. but i agree with you regarding upside: the patriots will utilize a ball control offense to keep their lead, leaning on RB production, whereas the cardinals will be playing from behind a ton, with murray in catch-up mode.

 

 

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On 2/8/2019 at 3:21 PM, bhawks489 said:

id like to root for Brady, it's such a great sports career but dammit I just can't bring myself to do it 

Yeah I'm not a fan of cheaters either. I wonder if he pals around with Barry Bonds  😄

I can't bring myself to discount him for FF. No he was almost never a Peyton Manning or Drew Brees ish stats machine, but he didn't have to be. He's very much a product of his system, and that system takes care of its own. Very high floor, so if you find yourself going along in the draft and oops oh hell forgot I need a QB and he's still there, jump on him.

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  • 4 weeks later...
30 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I think TB12 has one more elite season, PEDelman is gonna be a ppr monster this season

Agreed. And at his ADP, yes please! The yardage could be a little problematic but as long as he has Edelman and White healthy, great value ...Dink and dunk all season long and just pound the ball with Sony (that is if his knee(s) don't explode mid season). 

 

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3 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

Brady shouldn't get drafted outside of 2 QB leagues. He will obviously, because he is the GOAT, but he shouldn't. Pats are gonna run a ton this year. 

 

Even in 2qb leagues he should go later than most I would think.. Brady is the GOAT but not the fantasy GOAT. 

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On 6/7/2019 at 7:59 AM, SharkSwimmer said:

Brady should have retired after defeating the Lambs in the Superbowl.  Without Gronk and a year older is going to be ugly for fantasy.

Probably still decent in real life with Belichick, the defense, and that running game.

So you're stance is that he should have retired for the sole reason that he won't be effective in fantasy football? 

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20 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

So you're stance is that he should have retired for the sole reason that he won't be effective in fantasy football? 

No, my stance is that retiring with a Super Bowl win is the perfect way to walk off into the sunset.  And now, another year older, instead Brady risks leaving the field for the last time on a cart.

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

No, my stance is that retiring with a Super Bowl win is the perfect way to walk off into the sunset.  And now, another year older, instead Brady risks leaving the field for the last time on a cart.


Every QB risks leaving the field on a cart.
Brady has played in all 16 games in 15 of his 17 years (not counting his rookie year). 

And you're doubting his durability? The dude is 42, not 72. 

 

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16 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

No, my stance is that retiring with a Super Bowl win is the perfect way to walk off into the sunset.  And now, another year older, instead Brady risks leaving the field for the last time on a cart.

 

He will just win again this year anyhow.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 7/10/2019 at 1:59 PM, SharkSwimmer said:

No, my stance is that retiring with a Super Bowl win is the perfect way to walk off into the sunset.  And now, another year older, instead Brady risks leaving the field for the last time on a cart.

 

Yea but he's obviously wired differently than most. At the age of 42 with his accomplishments and money, I'd be at the beach working on my beer belly. 

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