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Rafael Devers 2019 Outlook


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On 4/15/2019 at 6:09 AM, Slatykamora said:

I'm not (usually) worried about power hitters not generating power in April.

What has Devers done for you to classify him as a power hitter? He doesn't hit the ball in the air and doesn't hit it particularly hard. 

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I agree, it is concerning, but you see him as a difficult case, and I see him as still every possibility is on the table equally case. Yes same conclusion, but there is a but.     Ok,

Not top 10?  It is a race between him and Trout for AL MVP right now.

Crossing my fingers.  

On 4/17/2019 at 9:22 PM, Jericho said:

Don't really get the criticism. Walk rate is up. Strikeouts are down.He's actually gotten a hit, some times multiple hits, in 7 out of his last 11 games. Only real problem here is the power. It hasn't happened. Probably in part due to a lot of grounders. But it just seems like a small sample size fluke.

I agree.  Last I looked he was third on the team with hits.  His power is legit and it is a small sample size.  Wish I owned him but no one in any of my leagues will trade him away, sigh.

It could be he is concentrating on getting better defensively that he is putting less time into his hitting right now as well.  He usually puts hours in at 3B working on his fielding daily and even more so recently with Pedroia working with him personally. 

Also in an effort to stop chasing balls out of the strike zone at the plate he has become less aggressive there as well.  Once early strike recognition because more second nature his aggression should return more as controlled regression.  All part of a young player learning his craft on the fly because he was needed up in the bigs earlier than was natural for him to be there.  It is all part of the growing process. 

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On 4/17/2019 at 8:24 PM, cs3 said:

What has Devers done for you to classify him as a power hitter? He doesn't hit the ball in the air and doesn't hit it particularly hard. 

 

He was considered a top prospect primarily for his plus power when he was in the minor leagues and last year, at age 21, he hit 21 home runs in 121 games.  (Bit of a pattern there).  That projects to 28 HR over 160 games.  

Seems like his approach is limiting his XBH so far.

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1 hour ago, urban2014 said:

Sitting tonight.  Might not matter if the Red Sox are rained out but he is in the dog house 

He is NOT in the dog house.  The Sox love him.  Cora loves him.  The Boston red meat sports media who jump on everything aren't even barking at him. 

He is third on the team in hits.  His hits tend to come in the more crucial situations.  He isn't really scuffling like JBJ and JBJ isn't in the dog house either.  But they play 20 games in a row now without a day off in the schedule and everyone will be getting off days now.  Cora believes in off days.  Now that they swept TB the pressure is off and Cora can start rotating regulars more which he did all of last year.

Reading in this forum about people thinking he is in trouble or will be sent down or this and that and actually following the Sox is like living in two totally different worlds I swear.  Boston knows he is young and is growing and also that he is probably the hardest worker on the team as well.  They are fine with him. 

But here?  Geez, here I feel like I step into the twilight zone where Pedroia is coming back right away and Raffy is being sent down and Sale's arm is an upside down pretzel or whatever. 

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

He is NOT in the dog house.  The Sox love him.  Cora loves him.  The Boston red meat sports media who jump on everything aren't even barking at him. 

He is third on the team in hits.  His hits tend to come in the more crucial situations.  He isn't really scuffling like JBJ and JBJ isn't in the dog house either.  But they play 20 games in a row now without a day off in the schedule and everyone will be getting off days now.  Cora believes in off days.  Now that they swept TB the pressure is off and Cora can start rotating regulars more which he did all of last year.

Reading in this forum about people thinking he is in trouble or will be sent down or this and that and actually following the Sox is like living in two totally different worlds I swear.  Boston knows he is young and is growing and also that he is probably the hardest worker on the team as well.  They are fine with him. 

But here?  Geez, here I feel like I step into the twilight zone where Pedroia is coming back right away and Raffy is being sent down and Sale's arm is an upside down pretzel or whatever. 

Cause a 23 year old just needs some rest on a Monday, right 

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5 hours ago, AHF said:

 

He was considered a top prospect primarily for his plus power when he was in the minor leagues and last year, at age 21, he hit 21 home runs in 121 games.  (Bit of a pattern there).  That projects to 28 HR over 160 games.  

 

Everyone hits 28 home runs nowadays.  That's more like average power for a corner infielder, at best. Plus raw power is a lot different than plus game power.

I think he needs to adjust his swing because so far this year he's hitting nearly 60% of his batted balls on the ground. That's not going to result in any kind of power

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

Everyone hits 28 home runs nowadays.  That's more like average power for a corner infielder, at best. Plus raw power is a lot different than plus game power.

I think he needs to adjust his swing because so far this year he's hitting nearly 60% of his batted balls on the ground. That's not going to result in any kind of power

How many 21 year olds hit 28 hr in the majors in the last decade?  I agree with you on his approach this year but let’s not play games and act like he didn’t have a plus power pedigree coming up.

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3 minutes ago, AHF said:

How many 21 year olds hit 28 hr in the majors in the last decade?  I agree with you on his approach this year but let’s not play games and act like he didn’t have a plus power pedigree coming up.

 

The problem isn't how impressive that is necessarily. The problem is that:

 

1.) HRs are not completely telling of a season and

2.) He's still young.

 

In regards to 1.), I get what you're saying about parking the ball over the fence 21 times. And that is impressive. I couldn't do it. But he didn't have a GOOD season by many respects. .731 OPS, .298 OBP, didn't exactly hold his own v. Lefties... That's not just "alright." By most league's standards, that is a bad season, simply put. (I also don't think, because of his struggles v. Lefties, it's fair to give him a massive sample and say "he was on pace for 28 HRs." I think if he played every PA last year he would've had worse numbers and worse numbers per PA, because they rescued him it seems at times from LHPs.) 

 

and 2.)... I hate the argument about what he's done per age. I think it's the worst argument of all time in a redraft league... because he's STILL young! It's not like he stopped being extremely young. Rafael Devers is extremely young. If someone's panicking in a long-term format, I've been the low-man in the room on Devers in redraft since teh preseason, but you'd be bonkers to not throw out some offers in Dynasty at his age 22 season. But I think that "not bad per age per level" argument could still work this year.... and he still is not the player that people drafted him to be. 

 

He'll continue to make strides. He's making strides now. I wouldn't panic in a long-term format and I don't think you should really change your opinion in a redraft either. His value is still where it's always been: young, talented, still a bit unproven, UPSIDE, but with some risk. 

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2 hours ago, AHF said:

How many 21 year olds hit 28 hr in the majors in the last decade?  

No idea, but I'll give you the name of one 21 year old who most certainly DIDN'T hit 28 HR in a season...

...Rafael Devers!

 

Lol at using some random benchmark that the player did not even reach, as an argument to support said player

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He has 6 errors already after making 24 last year. I watch him make outstanding plays and then boot plays he should make which leads to me believe he can at least be adequate defensively. But you have to wonder, if that doesnt happen, if his defense affects his playing time? Especially if he isnt hitting.

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8 hours ago, taobball said:

 

The problem isn't how impressive that is necessarily. The problem is that:

 

1.) HRs are not completely telling of a season and

2.) He's still young.

 

In regards to 1.), I get what you're saying about parking the ball over the fence 21 times. And that is impressive. I couldn't do it. But he didn't have a GOOD season by many respects. .731 OPS, .298 OBP, didn't exactly hold his own v. Lefties... That's not just "alright." By most league's standards, that is a bad season, simply put. (I also don't think, because of his struggles v. Lefties, it's fair to give him a massive sample and say "he was on pace for 28 HRs." I think if he played every PA last year he would've had worse numbers and worse numbers per PA, because they rescued him it seems at times from LHPs.) 

 

and 2.)... I hate the argument about what he's done per age. I think it's the worst argument of all time in a redraft league... because he's STILL young! It's not like he stopped being extremely young. Rafael Devers is extremely young. If someone's panicking in a long-term format, I've been the low-man in the room on Devers in redraft since teh preseason, but you'd be bonkers to not throw out some offers in Dynasty at his age 22 season. But I think that "not bad per age per level" argument could still work this year.... and he still is not the player that people drafted him to be. 

 

He'll continue to make strides. He's making strides now. I wouldn't panic in a long-term format and I don't think you should really change your opinion in a redraft either. His value is still where it's always been: young, talented, still a bit unproven, UPSIDE, but with some risk. 

 

Your point is valid on redraft but:

 

(1) A lot of people play keeper and dynasty formats

 

(2) Ignoring growth curves for players is not a good idea.  He was not a great player last season but few people are at 21.  What that means varies by format.

 

(3)  The original question is why anyone thought he had power which is a silly question given what the scouts have been saying about him for the last 5 years.  It doesn’t change the fact that his approach this season seems to be sapping his power and people should acknowledge and adjust for that until he adjusts but the question of why anyone thinks he might hit for power is one that is deliberately ignoring the upside that comes from that pedigree and pretty good results for a youngster.  A 28 HR pace over 3/4 of a season is a significant sample size.

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On 4/17/2019 at 6:24 PM, cs3 said:

What has Devers done for you to classify him as a power hitter? He doesn't hit the ball in the air and doesn't hit it particularly hard. 

His ISO, FB rates and HR/FB rates didn't actually change much between his 2017 breakout and 2018 disappointment. Just his BABIP. 

His O-Swing is down some, contact rate is up some. Seems like he's swinging at less crap then before. Those numbers stabilize far quicker(due to sample size) and that's all putting any weight into right now. 

So while I don't like that the FB is low. I know those numbers do bounce around more if we are looking month to month.

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