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Rafael Devers 2019 Outlook


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On 4/30/2019 at 9:54 AM, brakeyawself said:

No one in my Dynasty leagues want him.  Been trying to move him since spring training and no reasonable offers or responses.  I guess best to hold in that situation, but I am definitely not as confident in his long term potential as I was the past couple of seasons.

And I have been trying to trade for him in my dynasties and no one wants to give him up.

24 minutes ago, Unoslacker said:

Pure butcher in the field and zero power with the bat right now. 

Also one of the hottest if not the hottest hitters on the team right now.

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I agree, it is concerning, but you see him as a difficult case, and I see him as still every possibility is on the table equally case. Yes same conclusion, but there is a but.     Ok,

Not top 10?  It is a race between him and Trout for AL MVP right now.

Crossing my fingers.  

1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And I have been trying to trade for him in my dynasties and no one wants to give him up.

Also one of the hottest if not the hottest hitters on the team right now.

Sure, still a liability with the glove and currently, non existent power. Not sure why you decided to quote me and reply with this. My above comment never mentioned anything about his average recently or for the season. 

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Homers come in bunches.  The key for him is that his walk rate is way up, he’s running more and he’s in a lineup that is slowly coming out of the duldrums.  He’s still a puppy, he’s an easy buy in dynasty IMO.  I sold him in redraft early this year but I’d happily buy back if opportunity presents itself.

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6 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Homers come in bunches.  The key for him is that his walk rate is way up, he’s running more and he’s in a lineup that is slowly coming out of the duldrums.  He’s still a puppy, he’s an easy buy in dynasty IMO.  I sold him in redraft early this year but I’d happily buy back if opportunity presents itself.

I own in a keeper first year I promoted him (pays to wait as its contracts league). Still not got one dong from owning him for 3 years, but it will be magical when it happens lol.

Am encouraged by plate discipline improvements. Though has it come at a cost of driving the ball? 

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17 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

I own in a keeper first year I promoted him (pays to wait as its contracts league). Still not got one dong from owning him for 3 years, but it will be magical when it happens lol.

Am encouraged by plate discipline improvements. Though has it come at a cost of driving the ball? 

Line drive rate way up (10%), but ground ball rate also up.  The positive is though he’s destroying fastballs this year.  Last year that was his downfall they ate him up.  The 0 dongs isn’t ideal but the profile looks pretty promising overall.  As long as walk and hit rates same normal he should still run into a decent amount of counting stats.  

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58 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

No it won't.  For every butchered ball he makes two really fantastic plays this year.  He is coming along just fine.

 

well, .667 would be a good batting average. But giving away a free out for every two taken away is pretty bad in the field.

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According to the above article, the Red Sox twitter account tweeted this:

Quote

Devers made 68% of routine plays as a rookie, he made 70% last season, he is making 76% this season. League average 3B makes 72%. His range is excellent. He's been -1 defensive run this season, so league average. People that want to move him off 3B are legitimately dumb.

 

The only thing legitimately dumb (completely asinine really) is the idea that any major leaguer, including Devers himself, would only make 68% of "routine plays". Even little leaguers don't boot 28-32% of routine plays. I mean does their twitter guy even know the first thing about baseball?

Also, Fangraphs has Devers ranked 27th out of 31 3Bs who played at least 450 innings last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=450&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=26,d

 In UZR/150 last year among the same group he was 25th out of 31.

 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=450&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25,d

 This year he's 22nd out of 24 qualifying 3Bs. (switch the above to 2019). Oh, and Devers' rookie year? Well, he didn't actually boot 30% of routine plays like their twitter guy said. But he was ranked 48th out of 49 qualifying 3Bs.

 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=450&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=26,d&page=2_30

There are lies, then there are damn lies, and then there's statistics. In the end, you don't need numbers to see Devers' butchery with your own two eyes. But if you want some real numbers that weren't made up on twitter, there they are.

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5 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

According to the above article, the Red Sox twitter account tweeted this:

 

The only thing legitimately dumb (completely asinine really) is the idea that any major leaguer, including Devers himself, would only make 68% of "routine plays". Even little leaguers don't boot 28-32% of routine plays. I mean does their twitter guy even know the first thing about baseball?

Also, Fangraphs has Devers ranked 27th out of 31 3Bs who played at least 450 innings last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=450&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=26,d

 In UZR/150 last year among the same group he was 25th out of 31.

 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=450&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25,d

 This year he's 22nd out of 24 qualifying 3Bs. (switch the above to 2019). Oh, and Devers' rookie year? Well, he didn't actually boot 30% of routine plays like their twitter guy said. But he was ranked 48th out of 49 qualifying 3Bs.

 https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=450&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=26,d&page=2_30

There are lies, then there are damn lies, and then there's statistics. In the end, you don't need numbers to see Devers' butchery with your own two eyes. But if you want some real numbers that weren't made up on twitter, there they are.

 

its always sunny in philadelphia thumbs up GIF

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32 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

According to the above article, the Red Sox twitter account tweeted this:

The only thing legitimately dumb (completely asinine really) is the idea that any major leaguer, including Devers himself, would only make 68% of "routine plays".   ...

There are lies, then there are damn lies, and then there's statistics. In the end, you don't need numbers to see Devers' butchery with your own two eyes. But if you want some real numbers that weren't made up on twitter, there they are.

Yet 72% is the MLB average and Devers is at 76% this season.  So what is dumb about that.

And I watch him game in and game out and have seen he make amazing plays too.  He is fine.

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8 minutes ago, pduce242424 said:

There’s the power everyone has been waiting for!!!

 

That ball was crushed to dead center. I’m interested to know the estimated distance. 

 

Was 4 thirty something.  He did crush it.

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Love the .298 BA and .382 OBP. Don't love the .395 slugging, but I suspect that's mechanical as much as anything and should sort itself out over time. He's shown his power ability everywhere else.

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3 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Pleased he's settled into the 5th of that lineup. Good spot for him. Hope Cora leaves him alone now. 

Honestly I’ve been pleased with him thus far. Yes the power hasn’t been there but in return he’s supplied us with great average and even some SBs. Yes most of us drafted him hoping for some pop but if he begins to flash power and sustain his average and throws in a few more SBs, we will all have gotten a better version of Devers than we could have imagined. 

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What in the tom-puckery is this sorcery swap:

 

player A 2018:

281 ABs

38-7-43-299-406

 

Player B 2018

450 Abs

59-21-66-240-298

 

Player A 2019

114 ABs

15-9-21-237-315

 

Player B 2019

130 ABs

23-1-14-300-383

 

Player A is Jesse Winker

Player B is Rafael Devers

I give up!!!

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This kid is slowly but surely adjusting to big league pitching.

 

Plate discipline is getting better, batted ball profiles are looking good, and he's getting the results.

 

Still 23, maybe he is in the process of developing into a stud that we all thought he would be.

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