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Rafael Devers 2019 Outlook


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6 hours ago, dkrocka said:

What in the tom-puckery is this sorcery swap:

 

player A 2018:

281 ABs

38-7-43-299-406

 

Player B 2018

450 Abs

59-21-66-240-298

 

Player A 2019

114 ABs

15-9-21-237-315

 

Player B 2019

130 ABs

23-1-14-300-383

 

Player A is Jesse Winker

Player B is Rafael Devers

I give up!!!

Nice comp lol, I own both in seperate leagues so it is interesting to see how their approaches have drastically changed so far.

I own Devers in a keeper where I'm happy to be patient with him. Rotate him in my lineup based on R/L pitcher, he is showing some good signs and they seem fully commited to him despite the errors which is always reassuring.

Wouldn't have much interest in a redraft though, seems like another developmental year won't yield big fantasy production yet. Where was he drafted on average this year?

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I agree, it is concerning, but you see him as a difficult case, and I see him as still every possibility is on the table equally case. Yes same conclusion, but there is a but.     Ok,

Not top 10?  It is a race between him and Trout for AL MVP right now.

Crossing my fingers.  

35 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

Where was he drafted on average this year?

 

FantasyPros says 142nd overall. 

 

139 Moose

140 Profar

141 Olson

142 Devers

143 Darvish

144 Giles

145 Robertson

 

(That list makes me feel better about Devers' power outage this year)

 

Edited by AHF
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This thread has been a super-interesting read (long time Devers owner, always been a believer).

 

The guy is 22 and the underlying metrics have ranged from promising to excellent basically this entire year.  If he had even three or four homers instead of zero through April the entire tone of the discussion would have been different even if there were no other changes to his stat line.

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59 minutes ago, Overlord said:

This thread has been a super-interesting read (long time Devers owner, always been a believer).

 

The guy is 22 and the underlying metrics have ranged from promising to excellent basically this entire year.  If he had even three or four homers instead of zero through April the entire tone of the discussion would have been different even if there were no other changes to his stat line.

I'm thinking his power binge will coincide with the weather warming up. I still think he reaches 20 homers even with the slow power start.

Edited by bigbluecrew56
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20 minutes ago, motown magic said:

no Freaking way he reaches 20 hrs this year . You better hope he gets 15  

He had 1 HR in May and 1 HR in July playing through injuries last year and still ended up with 21 in 121 games played so if he stays healthy I say yes freaking way he gets to 20. Just wait till the weather warms up. 

Edited by bigbluecrew56
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1 hour ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I'm thinking his power binge will coincide with the weather warming up. I still think he reaches 20 homers even with the slow power start.

Fenway is NOT a hitters park in April and May and part of June even.  The wind comes off the ocean and screwed up JD Martinez last year with a very slow power start.  Once Fenway becomes, to quote Yaz back in the day, "hitterish," the balls will start flying out.  Just takes awhile for summer to arrive in New England and the winds to change.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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Last year is History. Nothing matters but this year. If Devers had 4-5 or 6 hrs by now. I would agree he could hit 25 . Sure he may hit 2 in a game here and there. But the empty spots in between are what will hold him back. It also doesn't matter if he hit that ONE hr 459 feet or whatever it was. A homerun 350 counts the same. And what is it like 280 to the Pesky pole? Plus the bullpen wall if what 4 feet high ?

LOL ! Just keep saying over and over. I believe I believe I believe. Then before you know it the calendar will turn to Sept and you"ll see Devers sitting there with 14-15 hrs . Remember. I believe I believe I believe. This holds true for Buxton owners as well.

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3 minutes ago, motown magic said:

Last year is History. Nothing matters but this year ...

 

In regards to fantasy baseball, generally the best predictor of future events is [relevant] past events.  

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26 minutes ago, motown magic said:

Last year is History. Nothing matters but this year. If Devers had 4-5 or 6 hrs by now. I would agree he could hit 25 . Sure he may hit 2 in a game here and there. But the empty spots in between are what will hold him back. It also doesn't matter if he hit that ONE hr 459 feet or whatever it was. A homerun 350 counts the same. And what is it like 280 to the Pesky pole? Plus the bullpen wall if what 4 feet high ?

The bullpen wall is 380' away.  Pesky's Pole is a VERY narrow alley about 5 feet in width after which right field breaks out almost straight back and becomes one of the bigger and consistently deeper ones in the majors.  It is also the area of the field where the spring ocean winds knock down balls more than any other part. 

JD lost about a good half dozen would be homers last year to the wind out in RF in April and May and was asking his team mates at the time if this was the norm.  He was glad to hear, he said, that once the weather warms up the ball carries better to RF and the rest is 2018 history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fenway_Park

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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Bat speed looks like it's up a tick and his plate coverage over the past month or so has been phenomenal.  Looks like "all systems go."

At what point are the stolen bases going to stop becoming a lark and we recognize them as part of his new slimmed-down game/physique?  He's on pace for something like 23 stolen bases?  I penciled him in for five-ish for the entire season and he's reached it by the second week in May.  25ish homeruns combined with 10-15 stolen bases and a near .300 average (plus 90ish/90ish runs/rbi) puts this guy at elite this year, doesn't it? 

Edited by Overlord
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11 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Bat speed looks like it's up a tick and his plate coverage over the past month or so has been phenomenal.  Looks like "all systems go."

At what point are the stolen bases going to stop becoming a lark and we recognize them as part of his new slimmed-down game/physique?  He's on pace for something like 23 stolen bases?  I penciled him in for five-ish for the entire season and he's reached it by the second week in May.  25ish homeruns combined with 10-15 stolen bases and a near .300 average (plus 90ish/90ish runs/rbi) puts this guy at elite this year, doesn't it? 

Alex Cora wants all his players running and stealing when they can.  As soon as Devers showed up with a better, slimmer physic that was the tell though most of us didn't get it then.

Nice to see all these positive posts after a month of doom and gloom from some saying Devers would soon be sent down to AAA etc etc.  I said then he never would been sent down again in his career minus possible rehab starts from some injury.  He is Cora's favorite player emotionally and Alex himself personally works out with him in the field etc like some sort of father-son thing.  Deveres was totally legit here to stay last year, this spring and now.

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His statcast data looks really good now. Hitting the ball harder than ever, K rate down, walk rate up. Average launch angle back to 7.7, which isn't high but is the same average he had his rookie season. He could be breaking out.

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12 hours ago, bradwatson said:

His statcast data looks really good now. Hitting the ball harder than ever, K rate down, walk rate up. Average launch angle back to 7.7, which isn't high but is the same average he had his rookie season. He could be breaking out.

 

I’ve watched most of his AB’s. He looks like a completely different player. Pitch recognition is so much improved. Laying off the garbage. Working counts. Drew a walk yesterday after being down either 0-2 or 1-2. I’m just glad I don’t listen to some off the goof balls that wanted to totally write the kid off. 

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3 hours ago, jhsong916 said:

3 straight games with 3 hits. Kid is becoming something special

 

Or just enjoying a hot streak against some awful pitching.

Not saying he hasn't made steps, but his ISO is currently sitting at .118

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