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Miguel Cabrera 2019 Outlook


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i love when RW forums brings people together 

Did I bet @Cmilne23 over/under 25 bombs? Oh that was just a type-o. Clearly meant 2.5 bombs.

I don't disagree with what you're saying on the surface about ISO. But I love ISO. ISO is one of my favorite metrics and I think it helps tell a true story even here about how Miguel Cabrera is hittin

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I love buying discount superstar bat talent while everyone chases new things. His NFBC ADP is 160. Even if he only plays 120 games, I think he's pretty likely to be worth more than that. Easy buy in all leagues at this price.

 

At this range, how many players truly have top 20 upside? Cause a healthy Miggy has that upside. We haven't seen him break down performance wise like Pujols, just healthwise, and maybe he's healthy ish this year, and even if he's not, that's already baked into the price.

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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There is close to a zero chance miggy will be healthy. I have owned him the last 15 years, and he has been nothing but a headache the past couple years because even when he's not officially hurt, he actually is, just silent about it.. Oh he'll get healthy for a week or 2, and then get hurt again and hardly find any rhythm. He's my favorite player and I'm not buying at Rock bottom price.

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53 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

 I love buying discount superstar bat talent while everyone chases new things. His NFBC ADP is 160. Even if he only plays 120 games, I think he's pretty likely to be worth more than that. Easy buy in all leagues at this price.

 

At this range, how many players truly have top 20 upside? Cause a healthy Miggy has that upside. We haven't seen him break down performance wise like Pujols, just healthwise, and maybe he's healthy ish this year, and even if he's not, that's already baked into the price.

 

Honestly I kindve disagree. I think, if we’re talking fantasy baseball, there’s quite a few hitters who have the same upside as Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera won’t steal bases, and realistically his power has left something to be desired 4 of the past 5 seasons. How realistic is it to say top 20 upside?

 

Maybe I’m wrong, but given the last FIVE years I’m nowhere near where you are on your conclusions. His hit tool, at his best, is phenomenal. Even now, in his injury riddled state, I think he can hit .320. But if he’s stealing 0 bases and hitting between 17-25 HRs in a full season, as well as playing for the Detroit Tigers which likely limits R/RBI potential, then is he, even at his current best, a great value pick? He’s a one category player. 

 

Dont get me wrong, if you get ~120 games like in 2015, then he’s almost definitely worth the draft price with a .338 BA and 18 HRs, but I also don’t see him having a .380+ BABIP on his knees/legs for the rest of his career. 

 

Like I don’t disagree with your initial generic sentence about chasing, but we aren’t talking about 1 bad year. We’re talking about a player who for 4 of the last 5 years has been a +BA asset at BEST with limited HR/SB potential. And we’re talking about a fantasy game that greatly gives boosts to things like speed (which he has none) and great line-ups (which he, as of now, is clearly not a part of.) 

 

I’m not uninterested in Cabrera, but I completely disagree about your statement about going after Cabrera in all league types. In a shallow league he’s fairly priced. In a deep, 5x5 league I find him overpriced. At 150-170 I’m still drafting players that I see as every week starters who I like and believe to have a level of upside. Cabrera’s upside is just not nearly as interesting to me as it is to you, I guess, because I don’t see him as a player with a remarkably high upside, and I do see him as a player with a remarkably low floor, given his injury history and age. That floor probably pushes him out of this range for me in the 5x5 leagues I write rankings for.

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I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable with Miggy as my primary 1B due to health concerns as well as the fact that I like some early 1B a lot, but as a UTIL I think he's gold.  If he plays most of the season you're getting .300+/.370+ with a very solid amount of HRs and counting stats.  I don't see that kind of upside out of anyone else in his ADP range (165 on NFBC and ranked 141 on Yahoo).  Standard 5X5 I feel like you can make good arguments for passing him by, but if you play in an OBP or points league he's very much a guy to target.

Edited by En Votto Veritas
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2 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable with Miggy as my primary 1B due to health concerns as well as the fact that I like some early 1B a lot, but as a UTIL I think he's gold.  If he plays most of the season you're getting .300+/.370+ with a very solid amount of HRs and counting stats.  I don't see that kind of upside out of anyone else in his ADP range (165 on NFBC and ranked 141 on Yahoo).  Standard 5X5 I feel like you can make good arguments for passing him by, but if you play in an OBP or points league he's very much a guy to target.

Jesse winker probably hitting #2 in front of Votto, Suarez, and Puig. Ranked around 200. IF Miggy is healthy they probably have comparable home run totals. Your welcome.

Edited by dkrocka
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16 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Jesse winker probably hitting #2 in front of Votto, Suarez, and Puig. Ranked around 200. IF Miggy is healthy they probably have comparable home run totals. Your welcome.

 

I honestly hate to say this but I understand and somewaht agree with this argument. Winker is a BA first, no speed asset. He is in a better line-up than Cabrera. IMO, clearly a better line-up. And while I do see a higher ceiling in Miguel's power theoretically, I don't find taht ceiling to be at all a realistic expectation after failing to hit that potential in 4 of the last 5 years. 

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20 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I honestly hate to say this but I understand and somewaht agree with this argument. Winker is a BA first, no speed asset. He is in a better line-up than Cabrera. IMO, clearly a better line-up. And while I do see a higher ceiling in Miguel's power theoretically, I don't find taht ceiling to be at all a realistic expectation after failing to hit that potential in 4 of the last 5 years. 

I pick joram and some terd a few years ago. I picked Suarez and delino last year. I generally pick 2 or 3 guys each year and get them. Winker is one of those guys this year. There is nothing wrong with a 110-17-65-whatever-290-400 line at 200. But that's my point with Miggy. There's guys out there that aren't going to cripple your lineup decisions frequently that are on an upward trajectory. Before winker hurt his shoulder he hit 10 home runs in 300 at bats in the minors at 21 or 22 or something. The Reds flat out aren't going to platoon their future, and Votto-lite no less for Matt Kemp. Kemp is for Schebler, not Winker. And I have routinely drafted Schebler in deeper leagues. There's guys out there that even if they only  jump 50 or 100 spots or whatever are a much stronger bet for profit. 

Edited by dkrocka
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5 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Honestly I kindve disagree. I think, if we’re talking fantasy baseball, there’s quite a few hitters who have the same upside as Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera won’t steal bases, and realistically his power has left something to be desired 4 of the past 5 seasons. How realistic is it to say top 20 upside?

 

Maybe I’m wrong, but given the last FIVE years I’m nowhere near where you are on your conclusions. His hit tool, at his best, is phenomenal. Even now, in his injury riddled state, I think he can hit .320. But if he’s stealing 0 bases and hitting between 17-25 HRs in a full season, as well as playing for the Detroit Tigers which likely limits R/RBI potential, then is he, even at his current best, a great value pick? He’s a one category player. 

 

Dont get me wrong, if you get ~120 games like in 2015, then he’s almost definitely worth the draft price with a .338 BA and 18 HRs, but I also don’t see him having a .380+ BABIP on his knees/legs for the rest of his career. 

 

Like I don’t disagree with your initial generic sentence about chasing, but we aren’t talking about 1 bad year. We’re talking about a player who for 4 of the last 5 years has been a +BA asset at BEST with limited HR/SB potential. And we’re talking about a fantasy game that greatly gives boosts to things like speed (which he has none) and great line-ups (which he, as of now, is clearly not a part of.) 

 

I’m not uninterested in Cabrera, but I completely disagree about your statement about going after Cabrera in all league types. In a shallow league he’s fairly priced. In a deep, 5x5 league I find him overpriced. At 150-170 I’m still drafting players that I see as every week starters who I like and believe to have a level of upside. Cabrera’s upside is just not nearly as interesting to me as it is to you, I guess, because I don’t see him as a player with a remarkably high upside, and I do see him as a player with a remarkably low floor, given his injury history and age. That floor probably pushes him out of this range for me in the 5x5 leagues I write rankings for.

 

Few points. I forget most leagues are 5x5 sometimes, obp/slg should still be great. But as to runs and RBI, I think he’ll be just fine. Castellanos and Christin Stewart (huge sleeper!) aren’t bad to be surrounded by. Tigers suck but they have a little bit of offensive talent.

 

The steals wont be there but he could reasonably put up a 90 25 90 .310 kind of line with .900 OPS (would be a healthy season of course). Prorate that out if he misses games. Still worth it at ADP if it is not a ton of time missed.

Edited by fawkes_mulder
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25 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

 

Few points. I forget most leagues are 5x5 sometimes, obp/slg should still be great. But as to runs and RBI, I think he’ll be just fine. Castellanos and Christin Stewart (huge sleeper!) aren’t bad to be surrounded by. Tigers suck but they have a little bit of offensive talent.

 

The steals wont be there but he could reasonably put up a 90 25 90 .310 kind of line with .900 OPS (would be a healthy season of course). Prorate that out if he misses games. Still worth it at ADP if it is not a ton of time missed.

 

I definitely like him a lot more in OBP/SLG formats. Castellanos I don't see being a Tiger for long ultimately, but even if he is I don't think the depth of lineup is good enough even if he has potential protection on each side. And I also have 25 HRs as a bit of a more unrealistic outcome given recent history. But I don't think it's crazy that he prodcues well as a sleeper particularly in those OBP/SLG formats. 

 

In 5x5, I'm only drafting him at his current ADP if I'm looking for a BA guy. If I'm above my goal for BA at the time or if I feel I already have a clout, I'm definitely passing. Speed/Power isn't intriguing enough IMO. 

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People keep saying if healthy. CHRONIC BACK PAIN. 2 weeks before it flares up and he's on and off the DL or hiding it.

 

I traded Vlad Guerrero Sr. , Rafael Furcal, and Magglio Ordonez for him 10 years ago. I dropped him last year. That's whose telling you not to touch him. In other words, I was there when he started sucking. I was still there hoping he could muster a healthy year. And now he's not even worthy of a bench spot.

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I think it was Jim Leyland, Tigers coach a few years ago: "This is something Cabrera is going to deal with the rest of his career"

 

A healthy season is a pipedream. Temper your expectations. He's going to hit the 10 day DL at least 3 times. I'm trying really hard to save you $9.99 on a bottle of Advil.

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1 hour ago, jspeco9 said:

Who's going around 160 that's so reliable or has so much upside? I'm absolutely buying at his price. I'll take 120-130 games of his last 5 year performance all day.

 

 

I mean more reliable than Cabrera? Who do I evaluate more highly than Cabrera? I mean do you want a list?

 

I'll even exclude pitchers.

 

Freaking love Cesar Hernandez. That's easy. Austin Meadows is easy. Elvis Andrus is easy. Rather take a shot on Luke Voit. Byron Buxton has more upside. Eric Hosmer is intriguing bounceback as a prime age in year two. Love Renfroe's power potential. If Adam Eaton is 100% looking in ST that one would be hard to pass on. Ramon Laureano has as much/more intriguing upside.

 

I kinda buy in at the evaluation of Jesse Winker thrown out earlier. Jesse's ADP is 211. That's a much more fair evaluation IMO of Cabrera. 

 

I mean you're using the word RELIABLE in a defense of Cabrera. The last two years he's had a .249 / 18 HR line over 130 games and a .290+ / 3 HR line over a short sample. Cabrera's reliability is non-existent at this point of his career. His team sucks. He doesn't steal bases. 

 

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And to go back to my initial point, my BIGGEST problem with Fawkes' post was that Miguel would be good in ANY league and ANY situation. Huge amount more upside to me in a 6x6 or otherwise OBP/SLG based format. still think the floor is pretty bad, but Miguel Cabrera has WAY more upside in a 6x6 OBP/SLG league than he does in a 5x5. And I also think he's a player that I'm taking (talking snake draft) based on the categorical construction of my team. In 5x5, if I'm behind on BA, Cabrera's a great sleeper I'd lvoe to nab at 160. But, predicting what's more likely for me, I like to build a strong BA early, and if I do have a strong BA, I can't imagine seeing Cabrera asworth it, once again, until you hit that post-200 pick Jesse Winker range. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

 

I mean more reliable than Cabrera? Who do I evaluate more highly than Cabrera? I mean do you want a list?

 

I'll even exclude pitchers.

 

Freaking love Cesar Hernandez. That's easy. Austin Meadows is easy. Elvis Andrus is easy. Rather take a shot on Luke Voit. Byron Buxton has more upside. Eric Hosmer is intriguing bounceback as a prime age in year two. Love Renfroe's power potential. If Adam Eaton is 100% looking in ST that one would be hard to pass on. Ramon Laureano has as much/more intriguing upside.

 

I kinda buy in at the evaluation of Jesse Winker thrown out earlier. Jesse's ADP is 211. That's a much more fair evaluation IMO of Cabrera. 

 

I mean you're using the word RELIABLE in a defense of Cabrera. The last two years he's had a .249 / 18 HR line over 130 games and a .290+ / 3 HR line over a short sample. Cabrera's reliability is non-existent at this point of his career. His team sucks. He doesn't steal bases. 

 

------------------------

 

And to go back to my initial point, my BIGGEST problem with Fawkes' post was that Miguel would be good in ANY league and ANY situation. Huge amount more upside to me in a 6x6 or otherwise OBP/SLG based format. still think the floor is pretty bad, but Miguel Cabrera has WAY more upside in a 6x6 OBP/SLG league than he does in a 5x5. And I also think he's a player that I'm taking (talking snake draft) based on the categorical construction of my team. In 5x5, if I'm behind on BA, Cabrera's a great sleeper I'd lvoe to nab at 160. But, predicting what's more likely for me, I like to build a strong BA early, and if I do have a strong BA, I can't imagine seeing Cabrera asworth it, once again, until you hit that post-200 pick Jesse Winker range. 

 

Wow, how dare I pass up on Voit, Buxton, and freaking Andrus lol...

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I'm in agreement with @taobball on this one. I really don't see the value in drafting Miggy this year. I can get so many other players with a similar floor that carry a much greater upside than he does at that current ADP. Every single player he listed around his ADP hold more value imo than Miggy this year, especially Cesar Hernandez and Eaton. 

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I'm with @fawkes_mulder on this one.  I get @taobball that there are interesting guys here and there.  Once you get past pick like 75 or so, it's about who you want on your team and who you find interesting, and if Miggy isn't that guy, so be it.

 

Injury and age are certainly issues here, but it's not like many other guys aren't question marks here either.  I personally think it's only fair to compare him to other 1b.  1b is weaker than it has been in a while. I like Voit too for the record, but he's going to come down some and he's a candidate to get squeezes out of some playing time if he's not mashing.  Miggy is due a ton of money and is a Detroit Tigers bonafide legend, so he's basically never coming out of regular ABs.

 

Another thing about Miggy is that he's one of the best hitters this century. He's a Hall of Famer. He's 36 years old.  He could tail off like Pujols/A-Rod did or he could hit up later until  Ortiz and Cruz have done.  His exit velo and underlying numbers seemed fine last year. I'm willing to invest a 150 pick on him in a league with a CI slot.   I dont think 30-300 is a crazy number thats unacheivable for him, and thats the kind of season people are hoping to get from Vlad in round 3.  In a redraft league, I think Miggy will be a good value this year. 

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Injury and age are certainly issues here, but it's not like many other guys aren't question marks here either.  I personally think it's only fair to compare him to other 1b.  1b is weaker than it has been in a while. I like Voit too for the record, but he's going to come down some and he's a candidate to get squeezes out of some playing time if he's not mashing.  Miggy is due a ton of money and is a Detroit Tigers bonafide legend, so he's basically never coming out of regular ABs.

 

Sure. I mean obviously this just is plain and simple how you evaluate a few factors. Like you said, Miggy's not my guy. 

 

I don't think it's fair to compare the level of issues with Miggy to most other players. You aren't just paying for stats that didn't happen in 2018 or 2017, you are paying for stats that haven't happened for the better part of SIX years, and you are paying for a body with chronic injuries everywhere who isn't getting younger. Like I just can't survive reading "He's basically never coming out of regular ABs" without cringing. If we're looking at the realm of possibilities as a percentage, I just think it is far more than in 50% of the outcomes that Miguel Cabrera DOES come out of regular ABs due to his horrible body condition at this point. 

 

4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Another thing about Miggy is that he's one of the best hitters this century. He's a Hall of Famer. He's 36 years old.  He could tail off like Pujols/A-Rod did or he could hit up later until  Ortiz and Cruz have done.


I don't understand this statement necessarily. He could tail off is a hard thing for me to justify because I don't exactly know how you would define the last two years if not "Tailing off." I guess that's the ultimate difference here: I already see him in the middle of this process and you clearly do not. I don't see how he hasn't been tailing off for a while now. 

 

4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I dont think 30-300 is a crazy number thats unacheivable for him, and thats the kind of season people are hoping to get from Vlad in round 3.  In a redraft league, I think Miggy will be a good value this year. 

 

Well first off, I think Vlad Jr.'s price is downright stupid for a player not projected to have a true Five-Cat upside and playing on the Blue Jays... so I don't necessarily think two wrongs make a right...

 

But I kind've just... do. Like unachievable is obviously not the word I would want to use. But when I'm looking at realistic outcomes I'm not really considering the 1% Outlier and that's what I consider Miggy staying healthy enough AND generating enough power to create a .300/30 Line. 

 

I see the realistic upside as lower then ya'll and I see the realistic floor as being lower and more likely to happen. 

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12 minutes ago, taobball said:

"He's basically never coming out of regular ABs" without cringing.

 

 

Cringe away. Not only isn't he coming out of regular ABs without a DL stint, the Tigers aren't flushed with talent at 1b/DH. He's getting paid a ton of money for like the next 4 years. 

 

12 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 


I don't understand this statement necessarily. He could tail off is a hard thing for me to justify because I don't exactly know how you would define the last two years if not "Tailing off." I guess that's the ultimate difference here: I already see him in the middle of this process and you clearly do not. I don't see how he hasn't been tailing off for a while now. 

 

 

I don't disagree that he hasn't tailed off some, I think the main difference is we're tailing off from a generational hitter.  There's still a very valuable player there in his decline. I personally do think he has 30-300 upside,    25-290 is still out earning a 150 ADP considerable, thats essentially the Anthony Rendon projection and I do not believe 3b is more scarce than 1b.

 

I very much agree he's an injury risk, but I like the price a lot. 

 

 

https://www.pitcherlist.com/dont-stick-a-fork-in-miguel-cabrera/

Edited by brockpapersizer
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14 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Cringe away. Not only isn't he coming out of regular ABs without a DL stint, the Tigers aren't flushed with talent at 1b/DH. He's getting paid a ton of money for like the next 4 years. 

 

 

Well yeah I mean, without a DL stint is the reason I'm cringing. I just don't personally think we should be so confident in that. Like when I realistically project PAs, I agree with you that Voit is in a position to get squeezed. But personally right now when I'm weighing the risk of Miguel Cabrera's injury v. Voit's replacement, I prefer to invest in the latter. 

17 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I don't disagree that he hasn't tailed off some, I think the main difference is we're tailing off from a generational hitter.  There's still a very valuable player there in his decline. I personally do think he has 30-300 upside,    25-290 is still out earning a 150 ADP considerable, thats essentially the Anthony Rendon projection and I do not believe 3b is more scarce than 1b.

 

I very much agree he's an injury risk, but I like the price a lot. 

 

Yeah but again we're still very far off on the power projection. I get that there's missed time in there, but 25 HRs is the second most he's had in 5 years. I just think 16-18 is a far more reasonable expectation, and I'm hoping for a good BA and 22 if I get him.

 

I'm just not seeing him as a power or speed resource and that's where we differentiate. I understand why we differentiate there, and why people who disagree see it the way they do. But personally I just don't find it to be in my normal realm of expectation to see more than 22 HRs. 

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18 hours ago, taobball said:

 

 

 

I'm just not seeing him as a power or speed resource and that's where we differentiate. I understand why we differentiate there, and why people who disagree see it the way they do. But personally I just don't find it to be in my normal realm of expectation to see more than 22 HRs. 

 

Streamer has exactly 23, The Bat has 22, and Depth Charts has 25 HR.

 

Also I'm looking at the player rater from last year and Jose Martinez finished as the 10th best 1b in all of baseball last year with 17 HR and 64 runs. 8th best if you want Muncy/Carpenter to count as 3rd.  I don't see too much of a risk drafting Miggy at about pick 150-160 in standard leagues, if he gets hurt you pick someone else up and supplant your production. In a super deep league with a thin WW, sure maybe it's safer to get someone who has been healthier the past few seasons, I can't argue that.

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For me, personally, if I'm going to be plugging in a mid-round guy and hoping he provides me solid R/HR/RBI, knowing full well he has no speed, I'd at least want him to have a great hit tool and provide me with solid batting average along the way. 

 

There's dozens of guys with more power upside than Miggy, and virtually anyone has more speed upside, but I find that if a guy is hitting .200 for a prolonged stretch and not even providing power/speed then I'm more likely to cut bait or bench him and miss out on the eventual production. With a guy like Miggy, if he's at least hovering around .300, he's at least contributing something and I'm much more likely to leave him in the lineup and catch his eventual hot streaks. 

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1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

For me, personally, if I'm going to be plugging in a mid-round guy and hoping he provides me solid R/HR/RBI, knowing full well he has no speed, I'd at least want him to have a great hit tool and provide me with solid batting average along the way. 

 

There's dozens of guys with more power upside than Miggy, and virtually anyone has more speed upside, but I find that if a guy is hitting .200 for a prolonged stretch and not even providing power/speed then I'm more likely to cut bait or bench him and miss out on the eventual production. With a guy like Miggy, if he's at least hovering around .300, he's at least contributing something and I'm much more likely to leave him in the lineup and catch his eventual hot streaks. 

 

I mean, I'm not sure who you're getting for speed at 1b after Miguel Cabrera. I guess  Jake Bauers might get you 10 steals, he could also be pretty bad.

 

Not sure how many of these guys being drafted after Miggy are a good bet for speed or homers over 30.  I like Smoak, I think he has a chance, White is a nice sleeper but not too much more, could be nothing.  I like Luke Voit and own him in a dynasty, but I am worried about his playing time when Didi comes back, if he geos cold, or if Bird gets hot.

 

I don't see a ton of guys here that make Miggy's power or lack of steals look like a huge detriment. Even if the power isn't what it use to be, I still think it will be decent and come with a good average.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I mean, I'm not sure who you're getting for speed at 1b after Miguel Cabrera. I guess  Jake Bauers might get you 10 steals, he could also be pretty bad.

 

Not sure how many of these guys being drafted after Miggy are a good bet for speed or homers over 30.  I like Smoak, I think he has a chance, White is a nice sleeper but not too much more, could be nothing.  I like Luke Voit and own him in a dynasty, but I am worried about his playing time when Didi comes back, if he geos cold, or if Bird gets hot.

 

I don't see a ton of guys here that make Miggy's power or lack of steals look like a huge detriment. Even if the power isn't what it use to be, I still think it will be decent and come with a good average.

 

I think we are in agreement? I was saying that I like Miggy in the mid-rounds because at least he should provide a solid average in between spurts of putting up nice power/counting numbers. 

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