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Miguel Cabrera 2019 Outlook


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13 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I think we are in agreement? I was saying that I like Miggy in the mid-rounds because at least he should provide a solid average in between spurts of putting up nice power/counting numbers. 

 

We are in agreement, I guess I disagree with the notion when you said there are dozens of guys with more power upside than Miggy after pick 150/60. That's all.  Looking at the 1b guys after him, I don't see anyone I feel super confident in hitting 30 HR, Smoak being the best bet who is not coming off a 30 HR season.

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i love when RW forums brings people together 

Did I bet @Cmilne23 over/under 25 bombs? Oh that was just a type-o. Clearly meant 2.5 bombs.

I don't disagree with what you're saying on the surface about ISO. But I love ISO. ISO is one of my favorite metrics and I think it helps tell a true story even here about how Miguel Cabrera is hittin

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14 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

We are in agreement, I guess I disagree with the notion when you said there are dozens of guys with more power upside than Miggy after pick 150/60. That's all.  Looking at the 1b guys after him, I don't see anyone I feel super confident in hitting 30 HR, Smoak being the best bet who is not coming off a 30 HR season.

 

I wasn't talking about solely the 1B position, I was speaking generally about hitters that could be drafted in that area of the draft. 

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48 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Holy s*** I didn't realize this guy has 4 more years after this one. What they going to push him up to the plate in a wheelchair in the final year paying him over 30 mil?

 

It is brutal.  On roster until 2024.  There are also 2 option years that could have him on the roster up to age 42. The scary thing is if he has some sort of crazy Ortiz like late career resurgence, they would have to pay him or buy him out.

 

According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, Cabrera will make $28 million in 2016 and 2017 before receiving a marginal bump to $30 million per season between 2018 and 2021. In 2022 and 2023, Cabrera will receive another slight raise and earn $32 million per season, totaling $248 million over eight years.

Cabrera also has the opportunity to make an additional $60 million combined with two vesting options for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. The options will vest if he finishes in the top 10 of the American League Most Valuable Player voting in 2023 and 2024. However, according to Heyman, the options can be bought out by the club for $8 million.

 

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1 hour ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Holy s*** I didn't realize this guy has 4 more years after this one. What they going to push him up to the plate in a wheelchair in the final year paying him over 30 mil?

Just say no to paying players until their twilight years.  Unless you’ve delivered multiple titles on your back for a town no team should ever give these A-Rod, Miggy, Pujols deals out.  One of few smart things the most moribund franchise in mlb, the Seattle Mariners, did was not give A-Rod a 10 year deal.  None of these teams who have paid these guys have won anything.  Well I guess Yankees won a title with A-Rod massive salary on books but they can afford to go well over luxury tax if need be being in top market in America.  

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32 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Just say no to paying players until their twilight years.  Unless you’ve delivered multiple titles on your back for a town no team should ever give these A-Rod, Miggy, Pujols deals out.  One of few smart things the most moribund franchise in mlb, the Seattle Mariners, did was not give A-Rod a 10 year deal.  None of these teams who have paid these guys have won anything.  Well I guess Yankees won a title with A-Rod massive salary on books but they can afford to go well over luxury tax if need be being in top market in America.  

Seattle had that record breaking year after A Rod but no playoffs since. I think if they had kept A Rod and Griffey it's safe to say they would have made the playoffs more than once.  Plus they probably would have gotten Ichiro anyway because it was best spot for Japanese market.

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52 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Seattle had that record breaking year after A Rod but no playoffs since. I think if they had kept A Rod and Griffey it's safe to say they would have made the playoffs more than once.  Plus they probably would have gotten Ichiro anyway because it was best spot for Japanese market.

Griffey wanted out wasn’t up to Seattle to move him.  He held them hostage.  A-Rod was a baller, but in that current climate of 2001 its hard to justify a 252 million dollar deal for a market like Seattle.  Texas was more advanced and had deeper pocket owner who cared.  Mariners were saved by a dude who didn’t know what baseball was but because the city made his business (Nintendo) a bunch of money he saved club.  

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1 hour ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

My only message for Tigers fans... after Phillies rotted for 5 years with their bad first baseman contract, clearing it allowed good things.

 

Just a lot of talent that has bled out of the organization on knee jerk "immediate" need trades.  Ray and Leyba for Greene.  Knebel and Thompson for Soria.  Travis for Gose.  Suarez and Crawford for Simon.  Smyly and Adames for Price. Then when they sold Price they got Norris, Boyd, and Labourt.  When they traded Cespedes they got Fullmer and Cessa.  They got a meh prospect for JUpton and that was a salary dump.  They got so-so prospects from the Astros for Verlander, nothing top shelf.  JD Martinez trade was payback for the Tigers stealing Scherzer from them a decade before. Lugo who sadly isn't doing much and Alcantara who can play SS, but can't be in a lineup.

 

The team could have Scherzer, Verlander, Ray, Boyd, Fullmer, or take a pick of some FA.  You'd also have Knebel out there closing instead of 5 ERA Greene.  Bring back Todd Jones!

Then:

C - Pudge out of retirement. I honestly not sure who would be here.

1B - Cabrera

2B Travis (always hurt, so likely someone else)

SS Adames

3B Suarez

OF - Martinez, JUpton, Castellanos

DH - Cabrera half the time, all the time, or put Castellanos here and add someone else in the OF.

 

Despite all those big names they traded recently, there is a crazy hyped prospect to get giddy about.  Mize is great, but he was drafted.  All the infusion of talent into the farm system has been pretty meh.  I thought we were going to get Wheeler at the minimum when we traded Cespedes to them.  There really isn't much to get excited about until 2022 at the minimum.

 

Of our $106 million payroll, $30 for Cabrera, $25 for Zimmerman, $8 for Verlander, $6 for Fielder.  That is $69 million of our payroll among those four.  Include Castallenos and that is $79 million.  That is a terrifying number considering the output and dead money involved.

 

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13 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

 One of few smart things the most moribund franchise in mlb, the Seattle Mariners, did was not give A-Rod a 10 year deal.  

Truly a genius move. The Mariners have not been to the playoffs since 2001

Why win baseball games when you can save money?  Front office should get inducted into the HOF for that one. 

The Rays are actually back to back to back to back champions right now.

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13 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

My only message for Tigers fans... after Phillies rotted for 5 years with their bad first baseman contract, clearing it allowed good things.

I don't disagree that the Tigers want this one back right now, but Miguel Cabrera was/is a much better hitter than Howard. The Tigers have a DH spot and there isn't exactly an up and comer he's blocking. 

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1 hour ago, Ecofolux said:

Miggy is looking GREAT so far, the power, the plate discipline......he's gonna be DHing a ton......is this a wolf in sheeps clothing?

I remember reading something like this about a year ago. Hearing industry experts talking about how he was in great shape.  Then I “wisely” drafted him only to watch him constantly get taken out in the 6thninning or leave the game. Was frustrating to own even we he actually played.  The only good thing he did was injure himself so bad that he was out for the year and I didn’t have to burn a DL spot.  He’ll be a headache to own.  But I’ll still somehow probably end up with a similar message on this board a year from now about how I drafted him.

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5 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I remember reading something like this about a year ago. Hearing industry experts talking about how he was in great shape.  Then I “wisely” drafted him only to watch him constantly get taken out in the 6thninning or leave the game. Was frustrating to own even we he actually played.  The only good thing he did was injure himself so bad that he was out for the year and I didn’t have to burn a DL spot.  He’ll be a headache to own.  But I’ll still somehow probably end up with a similar message on this board a year from now about how I drafted him.

There's enough experts these days that you can get multiple opinions on just about any player, so I think blaming the experts as well as giving them credit is kinda dumb in 2019. Listen to reasoning you like from guys who you think have a proven track record, and make your own informed decision.

I don't have any player on a 'I must own him at all costs level", but I do think Miggy seems like a pretty decent pick this year at current ADP. Is one of the best hitters of all time having a good season in his mid 30s really more risky than investing in Luke Voit, Justin Smoak, Joey Gallo, Muncy, etc. They all have their warts. 

Unlike those guys, Miggy only loses playing time to the DL. No chance the Tigers just bench him.

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51 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

There's enough experts these days that you can get multiple opinions on just about any player, so I think blaming the experts as well as giving them credit is kinda dumb in 2019. Listen to reasoning you like from guys who you think have a proven track record, and make your own informed decision.

I don't have any player on a 'I must own him at all costs level", but I do think Miggy seems like a pretty decent pick this year at current ADP. Is one of the best hitters of all time having a good season in his mid 30s really more risky than investing in Luke Voit, Justin Smoak, Joey Gallo, Muncy, etc. They all have their warts. 

Unlike those guys, Miggy only loses playing time to the DL. No chance the Tigers just bench him.

Good points.  I do disagree that the tigers won’t bench him though.  Based on last years usage, I can see him playing like 5 of 7 or 4 of 6, DH or not.  I can also see him coming out of games as a pinch runner once he draws a walk. This costs a handful or runs and a few ABs.   He did last year, so there’s little reason to believe that will change.  For the record, I WILL probably own him, and I will probably be thrilled after the draft, but not at the end of the year.  Counter intuitive, I know, but I can’t help myself.

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11 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Good points.  I do disagree that the tigers won’t bench him though.  Based on last years usage, I can see him playing like 5 of 7 or 4 of 6, DH or not. 

Have you seen the Tigers lineup, they also have nobody threatening his job in AAA.  He's also paid until forever. He's also a good hitter.

If he's healthy, he'll play just about every day IMO, and I think he certainly plays enough 1st to retain ellig. Castellanos is probably getting traded too. 

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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

I remember reading something like this about a year ago. Hearing industry experts talking about how he was in great shape.  Then I “wisely” drafted him only to watch him constantly get taken out in the 6thninning or leave the game. Was frustrating to own even we he actually played.  The only good thing he did was injure himself so bad that he was out for the year and I didn’t have to burn a DL spot.  He’ll be a headache to own.  But I’ll still somehow probably end up with a similar message on this board a year from now about how I drafted him.

It's perspective. Last year he was still being taken as a starting 1b on teams. That didn't work so well. I'm not drafting him expecting to count on him every day, I'm drafting him as backup 1b or starting UTL and rolling the dice on the upside. 

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20 minutes ago, Bigfische said:

It's perspective. Last year he was still being taken as a starting 1b on teams. That didn't work so well. I'm not drafting him expecting to count on him every day, I'm drafting him as backup 1b or starting UTL and rolling the dice on the upside. 

For sure. I think last year, as a starter you still had to reach to get him.  As a utility/backup this year,i still think youll need to reach to get him.  No such thing as a sleeper any more.  If hes on your list...hes probably on a few more. Someone here said 160 in his draft. Id reach before that myself.

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Hes not going to hit 20+ homers again.  He doesn’t have the drive in his lower half anymore.  His body has really given out.  If managed correctly and can avoid the long term injury, if he can get in 130-135 games he should hit .300+.  Hes still a good hitter even with diminished power. I’d probably set the over under on homers at 15.  Im skeptical he can stay on field long enough to eclipse that though.  It didn’t even take one month of real games for him sustain 4 different bodily injuries last year.  It wasn’t just a bad break, it was an entire body breakdown. 

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I'd rather draft guys that hit the DL than play bad ball hiding an injury. He will cost you a 20 dollar investment in Advil. You guys are setting over/under on home runs? LOL. I'm setting the over/under at 200 at bats hiding injury

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2 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Hes not going to hit 20+ homers again.  He doesn’t have the drive in his lower half anymore.  His body has really given out.  If managed correctly and can avoid the long term injury, if he can get in 130-135 games he should hit .300+.  Hes still a good hitter even with diminished power. I’d probably set the over under on homers at 15.  Im skeptical he can stay on field long enough to eclipse that though.  It didn’t even take one month of real games for him sustain 4 different bodily injuries last year.  It wasn’t just a bad break, it was an entire body breakdown. 

If he plays 130 games I'll make a bet with you that he hits 20+ bombs.

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