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Miguel Cabrera 2019 Outlook


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2 hours ago, bradwatson said:

If he plays 130 games I'll make a bet with you that he hits 20+ bombs.

 

2 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’ll take that bet.  PM me and we’ll figure out details.  

i love when RW forums brings people together 

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i love when RW forums brings people together 

Did I bet @Cmilne23 over/under 25 bombs? Oh that was just a type-o. Clearly meant 2.5 bombs.

I don't disagree with what you're saying on the surface about ISO. But I love ISO. ISO is one of my favorite metrics and I think it helps tell a true story even here about how Miguel Cabrera is hittin

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Smells like a classic DH only role is needed here to keep those aging bones healthy. Like how it worked a treat with Ortiz and Cruz.

Why don't they just make him the everyday DH, and not even sniff the infield anymore? 

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ST can make a lot if guys look like prime Miggy. But he sure looks like prime Miggy -- OPS 1.000, a HR every 12 AB and all that. Innards are prolly duct tape, shock cord and pure grain alcohol but guys have put together full seasons relying on less. 1B being as thin as it is roll the dice at that price. Guy's a generational bat.

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10 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

ST can make a lot if guys look like prime Miggy. But he sure looks like prime Miggy -- OPS 1.000, a HR every 12 AB and all that. Innards are prolly duct tape, shock cord and pure grain alcohol but guys have put together full seasons relying on less. 1B being as thin as it is roll the dice at that price. Guy's a generational bat.

 

unfortunately it won't last ...... maybe acquire him and try to flip on someone not up to speed but you can't count on him to be serviceable fantasy option at this point - its just a matter of time 

 

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Personally, I hope they DH him. 

Ended up paying $8 for him in an auction draft and have high hopes. He's 35, but let's not forget that Victor Martinez one time at 35 with the Tigers hit 30 dongs and runner up to MVP with DH opportunities. Really hope that's the case this year!

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I think he'll be traded come August.  I know his contract is UGLY, but Detroit picks up half, all of a sudden it's not bad for his acquiring team.  Houston or Boston would be my prediction.  He's owed 150M over next five seasons - counting this season.  Detroit trades him in August and picks up $60M, they're saving $60M and his acquiring team is getting him for $15M a season for for more years - that is reasonable if he's back hitting again.  Imagine him replacing Moreland/Pearce in the Boston line-up...

Dombrowski added him twice now - as an amateur free agent when in Florida, and then traded for him with the Tigs and gave him that contract. 

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2 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

I think he'll be traded come August.  I know his contract is UGLY, but Detroit picks up half, all of a sudden it's not bad for his acquiring team.  Houston or Boston would be my prediction.  He's owed 150M over next five seasons - counting this season.  Detroit trades him in August and picks up $60M, they're saving $60M and his acquiring team is getting him for $15M a season for for more years - that is reasonable if he's back hitting again.  Imagine him replacing Moreland/Pearce in the Boston line-up...

Dombrowski added him twice now - as an amateur free agent when in Florida, and then traded for him with the Tigs and gave him that contract. 

I'd be pretty shocked if he was traded unless he's putting up close to MVP numbers.  Even with 1/2 the money being given away, you still take the cap hit and take away flexibility from your payroll. Also, unless I'm getting great prospects, I dont see why I trade away Miggy (Assuming he's hitting great) and throwing down cash for him to play elsewhere. I don't think any team is moving away an elite prospect for Miggy, you're looking at a grab bag of middle of the road prospects like Marlins got for Yelich, and Yelich was cheap and in his prime. Miggy is worth much less than the Yelich package.

The Tigers payroll is bottom 1/3 in the league right now. They don't need to save money. I know Miggy isn't a franchise player in 2019, but I wouldnt pay another team to have him for average prospects nor would I spend elite prospects to acquire him if I was another team. Granted Miggy might hit very well, the cost for acquiring a hit only guy in Free Agency is minimal these days. Remember that the Red Sox waived Hanley Ramirez to make sure his option didn't kick in, because the value of a DH/1B is nowhere near 20 million per year unless it's elite numbers.

Also, there's a non 0 chance the Tigers can rebuild in 2-3 years with Mize/Manning and some other prospects/free agents and Miggy could be a David Ortiz hitting well into his age 40 year (he's 35 now). I wouldn't rule out the Tigers being in the playoffs with Miggy as their DH  and good in a few years.  I could also see him being released next year or the year after if he's abysmal or injured, but at the same time the Tigers hitting and prospect ready hitting isn't that close to pushing him into being a bad use of a roster spot for the team.

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He's obviously not prime Miggy anymore, but he can still have value so long as he's healthy. Looking at his peripherals one thing that hasn't gone down is his hard hit rate. Now, half of his contact last year was in the form of ground balls, but that may have been due to injury; if healthy he can get back to his normal fly ball rates. That coupled with a 40 something hard hit rate should see him hit 20 to 25 home runs. Again, this is all predicated on his health, but he can have a solid season. He's not prime Miggy anymore but he still has talent.

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1 hour ago, Ham Porter said:

IF he stays healthy I'd venture his HR's would be closer to 40 than 20.

 

His home run problem is not because he does not hits the ball hard, its because his ground ball percentage last year was 54.6% vs a career average of 41.3% (albeit in only a 157 PA sample, but still).

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I think he takes too much pride in his batting average and can hit the ball the other way with minimal effort. So if aging has slowed his bat speed down a bit, he knows the smarter play is to go for the sure hit vs trying to pull the HR.

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14 minutes ago, Saucy said:

His home run problem is not because he does not hits the ball hard, its because his ground ball percentage last year was 54.6% vs a career average of 41.3% (albeit in only a 157 PA sample, but still).

He's always been a line drive hitter. With back issues, the difference in elevating the ball is probably not much. Optimistic but I'm not going to be in a position where I rely on him.

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6 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

He's obviously not prime Miggy anymore, but he can still have value so long as he's healthy. Looking at his peripherals one thing that hasn't gone down is his hard hit rate. Now, half of his contact last year was in the form of ground balls, but that may have been due to injury; if healthy he can get back to his normal fly ball rates. That coupled with a 40 something hard hit rate should see him hit 20 to 25 home runs. Again, this is all predicated on his health, but he can have a solid season. He's not prime Miggy anymore but he still has talent.

 

Exactly. Even though I got burned by him the last two years, I bought in on him again this year. Albeit, for pennies on the dollar, but still... he has a 1st ballot HoF swing and is worth the gamble this year when you factor in his price and how shallow 1B is this year.

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4 hours ago, Ham Porter said:

IF he stays healthy I'd venture his HR's would be closer to 40 than 20.

 

You stole my profile pic!! How dare you?!?! Hahah anyway, I think it would take Miggy being healthy for 150+ games to exceed 30 HRs and by healthy I don't mean just playing in 150+ games while sucking it up through some injuries. He would need to go vintage Miggy which I just don't see happening at his age and with his recent injuries. 

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He has 19 homers in his last 168 games played.  People are being far too optimistic about the production he’s capable of.  He’s going on 36, coming off a full blown body breakdown.  Surviving the cold weather months will be key for him.  If he can make it into warmer months without being crippled then he could maybe go on a little dong binge.  But this guy literally didn’t make it through April last year without 4 different in the batters box or trotting to the base injuries.  He strained, and then blew his bicep out by simply swinging.  Big Papi is a rarity, these body types typically don’t find the fountain of youth. On a terrible team that will have zero to play for.  If he has a hot start he’s an immediate sell high.  

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17 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

You stole my profile pic!! How dare you?!?! Hahah anyway, I think it would take Miggy being healthy for 150+ games to exceed 30 HRs and by healthy I don't mean just playing in 150+ games while sucking it up through some injuries. He would need to go vintage Miggy which I just don't see happening at his age and with his recent injuries. 

Haha that's so random (pic). I don't disagree with your logic.

It's more likely than my optimism.. but we will see. It is Miggy.

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5 homers this spring, 3 in the past 4 days. Yeah yeah I know it's spring training and plenty of other guys have set the world on fire in ST and gone on to do nothing, but those others guys weren't generational HOF hitters. It shows me that he still has plenty of power and for the 100th time health is is the main concern here.

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