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Miguel Cabrera 2019 Outlook


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i love when RW forums brings people together 

Did I bet @Cmilne23 over/under 25 bombs? Oh that was just a type-o. Clearly meant 2.5 bombs.

I don't disagree with what you're saying on the surface about ISO. But I love ISO. ISO is one of my favorite metrics and I think it helps tell a true story even here about how Miguel Cabrera is hittin

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18 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

It takes us old guys a little while longer to get going. He's going to be great

Yep. He missed another opposite-field homer by about a foot too. Turned into a 2 run double though so all is well. 4/5 tonight and the game isn’t over yet.

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Still not pulling anything.... 2 of his hits were grounders - one up the middle, one to deep down the line where the 3B couldn't make the throw. The others were golfed to the oppo corner in the exact same way. That's nice but that seems to be where he's living this year. I'd like to see some power strokes to the pull side 👀

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He's taken the opposite approach to Pujols in his later seasons. Instead of pulling everything and selling out for power he's trying to drive everything the other way. It's respectable and pretty much the opposite of the entire league but hurts his fantasy value. The average should stay high as a result but the homer total will suffer. Hopefully he'll start pulling more balls at some point.

And you can't really call a true oppo taco a fence scraper. How many times do you ever see someone hit a bomb right down the opposite field line? That takes a tremendous amount of power and skill and Miggy is probably one of only a few guys in the league that can do it.

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Interesting his launch angle is now at 11.7, which isn't far from the 12.2 he averaged in 2016 when he hit all those homers. Average exit velocity and hard hit rate are still elite. Color me encouraged. NOT DEAD YET.

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I hope this is the start of something.  I grabbed him late in a couple of leagues, intentionally.  I wasn't expecting vintage Miggy, but .300ish with 25 bombs and an 80/95 line seamed reasonable.  Miggy has been injured, but his underlying metrics looked good, so I figured with good health he could produce some good results in double digit rounds.  Finger crossed still.

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6 hours ago, bradwatson said:

Interesting his launch angle is now at 11.7, which isn't far from the 12.2 he averaged in 2016 when he hit all those homers. Average exit velocity and hard hit rate are still elite. Color me encouraged. NOT DEAD YET.

Although the velo and hard hit are still in elite company, his woba,xwoba,and slugging% are conitually declining to the point where theyre pretty much league average.  Thats the real indicator of power. Im wondering if hes tinkerred his swing enough to protect the back by going the other way more and twisting less.  If i remember correctly,he started out awful (and gimpy looking last year) and then launched one in May that got everyone excited before promtply being out for the year.   Lookong forward  to seeing what May brings. Im hopeful,but without the power a brandon belt type contribution is a real possibility.

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27 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

Although the velo and hard hit are still in elite company, his woba,xwoba,and slugging% are conitually declining to the point where theyre pretty much league average.  Thats the real indicator of power. Im wondering if hes tinkerred his swing enough to protect the back by going the other way more and twisting less.  If i remember correctly,he started out awful (and gimpy looking last year) and then launched one in May that got everyone excited before promtply being out for the year.   Lookong forward  to seeing what May brings. Im hopeful,but without the power a brandon belt type contribution is a real possibility.

His woba and slugging are obviously going to be brutal because he hasn't done anything yet. I'm more interested in projecting what will happen moving forward than what he's done to date. His xWoba and xSlg are both above league average and right there with or better than some superstars like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story.

Factoring in he's a generational talent, other than the K rate and groundball rate I see these metrics and I think there is still something here...

Screenshot_20190427-133456.jpg

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36 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

His woba and slugging are obviously going to be brutal because he hasn't done anything yet. I'm more interested in projecting what will happen moving forward than what he's done to date. His xWoba and xSlg are both above league average and right there with or better than some superstars like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story.

Factoring in he's a generational talent, other than the K rate and groundball rate I see these metrics and I think there is still something here...

Screenshot_20190427-133456.jpg

What hes done to date IS what im looking at to see what he'll do going forward.  Fact is, his hr/ab has been pretty much cut in half every year fpr the past 3 years (800 ish ABs.)  I was hoping this was an injury type thing and that it would return with proper health and conditioning.  Im starting to lose hope, as these trends dont often change in the mid 30s ,but am not cutting bait yet. I definately am exploring any and all back up plans.

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If you stick with old fogies like Miggy you miss out on the upcoming players like H Dozier, Yandy Diaz etc. Add in their atriocious lineup and it's time to move on before it's too late guys, in anything but deeper leagues anyway. His K rate is way up this year and BB down so it's all going down the pan for big Mig.

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5 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

If you stick with old fogies like Miggy you miss out on the upcoming players like H Dozier, Yandy Diaz etc. Add in their atriocious lineup and it's time to move on before it's too late guys, in anything but deeper leagues anyway. His K rate is way up this year and BB down so it's all going down the pan for big Mig.

 

By this logic you would have missed out on quite a few bounce backs in recent years. Speculating on a previously elite player to rebound productively from injury is not far removed from speculating on breakouts. There’s a middle ground there. A healthy Miggy ( at DH ) playing every day is worth sticking with for a little while as the weather heats up. I’m giving him another few weeks.

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34 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

If you stick with old fogies like Miggy you miss out on the upcoming players like H Dozier, Yandy Diaz etc. Add in their atriocious lineup and it's time to move on before it's too late guys, in anything but deeper leagues anyway. His K rate is way up this year and BB down so it's all going down the pan for big Mig.

I love blanket statements like this that assume every league has like 1 bench spot available. I own Miggy and have managed to grab Dozier, Jorge Polanco, and churn many other potential breakout candidates without dropping him. I've been benching Miggy and Devers in favor of Dozier and Maikel Franco for the past 2 weeks. In some formats you can bench struggling players in favor of the hot hand...

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