Cooper Kupp 2019 Outlook

[SenatorSpaceman 2,523]

When they played San Fran earlier this season (in Los Angeles) Goff had 78 yards, 17 of which went to Kupp. With Sherman expected to return, this doesn’t seem like an ideal breakout spot. 

[OrangeAggie 256]

The TD's the last 2 weeks have been complete flukes. Count them as gifts and move on. You'd have to be insane to start this dude @ San Fran in week 16, especially over someone like Perriman. 

[afl5013 420]

14 hours ago, aapox said:

Also, snap share was back to 92%, so safe to say that last game was an anomaly, as expected.

This is the big thing for me. Am debating sitting him [...] but that snap count is what I was hoping for. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by tonycpsu
Removed Assistant Coach content

[vthokie3 1,371]

6 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

This is the big thing for me. Am debating sitting him for Perriman, but that snap count is what I was hoping for. 

Im debating the same. The issue for me is even with the increased snap count the Rams look atrocious on the road

[decodeddreams 85]

Keep going back and forth this week. Kupp put up horrible numbers last time vs SF but the past couple of games SF doesn't seem as sharp as they were at the start. Feels very boom or bust here, everyone could expect them to just rollover and they pull some Falcons win out of a hat. But Kupp also just seems like an after thought lately which makes it hard, not sure what happend but after his big game he doesn't even get looks till 2nd half now.

[BigBenTheSteelerMan 222]

26 minutes ago, decodeddreams said:

Keep going back and forth this week. Kupp put up horrible numbers last time vs SF but the past couple of games SF doesn't seem as sharp as they were at the start. Feels very boom or bust here, everyone could expect them to just rollover and they pull some Falcons win out of a hat. But Kupp also just seems like an after thought lately which makes it hard, not sure what happend but after his big game he doesn't even get looks till 2nd half now.

For me coops matchup proof. The only question is goff, hes really the only one who holds back coop.

[decodeddreams 85]

7 minutes ago, BigBenTheSteelerMan said:

For me coops matchup proof. The only question is goff, hes really the only one who holds back coop.

I agree, Goff doesn't seem to want to target Kupp for some reason. The way those two have been lately would you still consider him this week? I feel like if he only gets 4 targets against SF his number will be really bad.

[aapox 898]

39 minutes ago, decodeddreams said:

Keep going back and forth this week. Kupp put up horrible numbers last time vs SF but the past couple of games SF doesn't seem as sharp as they were at the start. Feels very boom or bust here, everyone could expect them to just rollover and they pull some Falcons win out of a hat. But Kupp also just seems like an after thought lately which makes it hard, not sure what happend but after his big game he doesn't even get looks till 2nd half now.

I feel the same way. Hard to trust the targets we've seen. It doesn't seem like there's a ceiling anymore and the floor seems creaky if a TD doesn't come... I think I'll keep him in there but it's hard to feel good about it.

[WSR 23]

When I was looking ahead at playoff schedules, I looked at this matchup and said no way. Granted, I'm on the fence now, but there's  a few things I don't like. So much of fantasy is opportunity and Kupp just has not had it of late. Relying on TD's to salvage a stat line is risky and usually results in getting burned. It also scares me that the 49ers defense is so good on the DL pressuring the QB that Goff will be rendered useless. Add in a poor offensive line for the Rams and it's hard to see his upside when starting him championship week. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by WSR

[TennisDude 263]

The Rams are insane. When Kupp registers above 80 yards or 7+ receptions, the Rams have lost only once this season. Yet they continue to completely forget about him until the very end of the 4th quarter lately. It's mind boggling.

Edited December 19, 2019 by TennisDude

[csv2209 254]

With such little room for error during championship this week, I’m most likely benching him in favor of Sutton and AJ Brown

[phegotgame14 428]

On 12/17/2019 at 12:57 AM, OrangeAggie said:

The TD's the last 2 weeks have been complete flukes. Count them as gifts and move on. You'd have to be insane to start this dude @ San Fran in week 16, especially over someone like Perriman. 

Speaking of flukes...Perriman matched his previous SEASON high total tds in one game last weekend. 

[OrangeAggie 256]

1 hour ago, phegotgame14 said:

Speaking of flukes...Perriman matched his previous SEASON high total tds in one game last weekend. 

 

If you actually watch the games, you'd understand why one was a fluke and the other wasn't. Or, maybe you just don't understand what the word "fluke" actually means. 

 

[Nyblazer11235 1,449]

4 hours ago, OrangeAggie said:

 

If you actually watch the games, you'd understand why one was a fluke and the other wasn't. Or, maybe you just don't understand what the word "fluke" actually means. 

 

perriman saw 6 targets and caught 5 balls, 3 for TDs. Yes he’s a decent play with no evans or Godwin but that was extremely flukey if you ask me. Unless you expect Perriman to maintain this td per two targets pace

Edited December 19, 2019 by Nyblazer11235

[phegotgame14 428]

9 hours ago, OrangeAggie said:

 

If you actually watch the games, you'd understand why one was a fluke and the other wasn't. Or, maybe you just don't understand what the word "fluke" actually means. 

 

Probably not. 

 

But ill take 83/1031/8 over 24/409/5 

[OrangeAggie 256]

14 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

perriman saw 6 targets and caught 5 balls, 3 for TDs. Yes he’s a decent play with no evans or Godwin but that was extremely flukey if you ask me. Unless you expect Perriman to maintain this td per two targets pace

Nobody has said they expect him to catch 3 TD's on 6 targets, so I'm not chasing your strawman. 

[Nyblazer11235 1,449]

26 minutes ago, OrangeAggie said:

Nobody has said they expect him to catch 3 TD's on 6 targets, so I'm not chasing your strawman. 

But you said he’s not a fluke in spite of last game matching his career high for a season, yet call Kupp a fluke who has caught a td in 7 games this year, and one each of the last three weeks?

 

[ajs723 3,443]

26 minutes ago, OrangeAggie said:

Nobody has said they expect him to catch 3 TD's on 6 targets, so I'm not chasing your strawman. 

Right, but there's a lot of talk about how Kupp's TD was flukey/garbage time, but less about Perriman's game being the complete outlier of his entire career, which is weird. The guy is a bum who's barely on a roster. 

We should expect similar volume for the two this week. 6-8 targets is most likely for both. 

So, the question is who's targets do you want. One of the 5 most talented WRs playing this week, or a guy who's debatably not even an NFL talent. Hmmm... Tough call. 

[dudewithabadcat 1,078]

Are we concerned about the Niners D at all?  Looks like they are very suspect at the moment. 

[WSR 23]

On 12/17/2019 at 1:57 AM, OrangeAggie said:

The TD's the last 2 weeks have been complete flukes. Count them as gifts and move on. You'd have to be insane to start this dude @ San Fran in week 16, especially over someone like Perriman. 

 

I feel like this is spot on. I felt a huge sigh of relief when he got those two TD's. The problem with his 92% snap rate is that they were down 21 at the half so of course he played a ton. Yet, he first caught a ball in what, the 3rd quarter?

I could be completely wrong, but he doesn't pass the eye test. I wish I felt safe starting him, but I don't. 

[rocket 223]

3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Right, but there's a lot of talk about how Kupp's TD was flukey/garbage time, but less about Perriman's game being the complete outlier of his entire career, which is weird. The guy is a bum who's barely on a roster. 

We should expect similar volume for the two this week. 6-8 targets is most likely for both. 

So, the question is who's targets do you want. One of the 5 most talented WRs playing this week, or a guy who's debatably not even an NFL talent. Hmmm... Tough call. 

Two weeks ago, Kupp was in on 28% of the snaps or thereabouts if I remember correct.  Last week, the Rams were trailing big and it still took the very end of garbage time for Kupp to get any production.   Plus TE Gerald Everett is coming back this week, another mouth to feed, when earlier in the season Everett's snaps were coming at Kupp's expense.  I would be very concerned about Kupp's usage and don't feel too confident starting Kupp.

Perriman's game was the outlier of his career, but he's the only starting WR left on that team from the beginning of the year and Winston is going to throw the ball.  Plus Perriman did have three solid games in a row.  I can seen how people would gravitate toward Perriman's situation, particularly if they are projected to lose this week.  He's got a high ceiling.

Edited December 20, 2019 by rocket

[ajs723 3,443]

14 minutes ago, rocket said:

Two weeks ago, Kupp was in on 28% of the snaps or thereabouts if I remember correct.  Last week, the Rams were trailing big and it still took the very end of garbage time for Kupp to get any production.   Plus TE Gerald Everett is coming back this week, another mouth to feed, when earlier in the season Everett's snaps were coming at Kupp's expense.  I would be very concerned about Kupp's usage and don't feel too confident starting Kupp.

Perriman's game was the outlier of his career, but he's the only starting WR left on that team from the beginning of the year and Winston is going to throw the ball.  Plus Perriman did have three solid games in a row.  I can seen how people would gravitate toward Perriman's situation, particularly if they are projected to lose this week.  He's got a high ceiling.

I agree that Perriman has a high ceiling, but Kupp has a higher ceiling, and, I can't stress this enough, is an exponentially better football player. 

Kupp is a perennial pro-bowl caliber player, Perriman might not be on an active roster next year. 

Edited December 20, 2019 by ajs723

[newyork2la 67]

2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I agree that Perriman has a high ceiling, but Kupp has a higher ceiling, and, I can't stress this enough, is an exponentially better football player. 

Kupp is a perennial pro-bowl caliber player, Perriman might not be on an active roster next year. 

Problem is Kupp’s talent isn’t the problem. It’s his happy feet QB who, if you’ve watched any Rams games the last month or so, refuses to target Kupp early in games. Last week, and I’m not even exaggerating, Goff would drop back and not even look in Kupp’s direction. He got all his points in the 4th quarter when Dallas went into prevent mode. Relying on that again this week is tough. Not sure I can do it. 

[ajs723 3,443]

11 minutes ago, newyork2la said:

Problem is Kupp’s talent isn’t the problem. It’s his happy feet QB who, if you’ve watched any Rams games the last month or so, refuses to target Kupp early in games. Last week, and I’m not even exaggerating, Goff would drop back and not even look in Kupp’s direction. He got all his points in the 4th quarter when Dallas went into prevent mode. Relying on that again this week is tough. Not sure I can do it. 

I hear you, it's been a Robert Woods love fest early, and that hasn't even led to consistent production for Woods. If you believe this offense is a complete dumpster fire, then I guess I understand staying away. On the other hand, that will guarantee a quarter plus of garbage time once again. Kupp is the ultimate check down, garbage time, prevent defense beater. So, I guess that's the point. Either the offense plays better, and Kupp is back to being a stud, or he feasts in garbage time. Win-win. 

[OrangeAggie 256]

3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I agree that Perriman has a high ceiling, but Kupp has a higher ceiling, and, I can't stress this enough, is an exponentially better football player. 

Kupp is a perennial pro-bowl caliber player, Perriman might not be on an active roster next year. 

 

There is no way you've watched the Rams offense over the last 6 weeks if you believe Kupp has a higher ceiling than Perriman this week. Kupp has hit his ceiling 3 weeks in a row.  He was a high ceiling player because he was the #1 target in a pass first offense. Now, he's the #4 target in a run first, 12 personnel offense that doesn't score nearly as many points.

Stop basing Kupp's potential on what you saw in week 5. He is averaging 5.5 targets over the last 6 games. He's a TD dependent player who will only be involved in the offense if the Rams get down by double digits. If that's who you want to start in your championship game, go for it.