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Cooper Kupp 2019 Outlook


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Everyone who didn't draft this guy should be kicking themselves (that would include me). He was an absolute steal at his ADP. And it's not the hindsight is 20/20 routine. You project his stats last year over a full season he's a WR1. And with Gurley's decline he was now the number one in a great offense who we already knew got targeted a ton. 

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These kickers annoy me. They only get points because no one's allowed to tackle them. Hand the ball off to them in an 8 man box and see how well they do.

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1 hour ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Are we thinking top 5 WR ROS because of target share? It does seem like this could be sustainable but it seems too good to be true

 

We're thinking Top 5 because of fantasy points and actual production.  Look at his 7-full games last year and his 5-games this year.  12-game sample size across two years.  

His stats in those 12 games:

103 receptions -- 1,088 yards (incl. rushing) -- 10 TDs

If you extrapolate to a full 16 game season that is:

137 recs -- 1,450 yds -- 13 TDs

He's literally been the best fantasy receiver in the game across the past two seasons when healthy.  The Rams passing more this year to preserve Gurley, only boosts Kupp.  

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5 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Everyone who didn't draft this guy should be kicking themselves (that would include me). He was an absolute steal at his ADP. And it's not the hindsight is 20/20 routine. You project his stats last year over a full season he's a WR1. And with Gurley's decline he was now the number one in a great offense who we already knew got targeted a ton. 

I’m guilty. I was afraid of Cooks and Woods competing for looks. And of course coming off injury. It’s insane that he’s gotten this type of target volume in that offense, but he’s clearly top 5 if it continues. He and Chris Godwin have been the biggest third round surprises. I think both of those guys are easily top 20 picks next year, even if that seems odd to say. They have now moved into the elite category.

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16 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Hmm, is it just Goff. What evidence do we have that Kupp has ever been good with another QB. 

Checks college numbers. 

78 TDs in 4 years. 

Oh... 

 

 

Umm yeah thanks for the info I guess, but I quite clearly said it isn't just Goff he's benefitting from and that Kupp is a legitimately good WR lol. The point was Goff's lack of ability to read a defense will likely ensure Kupp has the continued volume he's been seeing since he is a security blanket on top of everything else.

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9 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

I never knew the guy had 73 receiving tds in college. Makes me think his nack for finding the end zone is no fluke 

Eastern Washington University. Basically high school football. 

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"Next Gen Stats says ...

The Next Gen Stats explain why Goff throws to Kupp so often. The wideout has created three yards or more of separation on 42.9 percent of his targets. Furthermore, on passes to Kupp, Goff has a 104.3 passer rating, his highest with any receiver on the team with at least 20 targets. Kupp also leads the Rams in end-zone receptions (two), both completions."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001061976/article/fast-connections-week-5-goff-has-eyes-for-kupp

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2 hours ago, screaming_vultures said:

Literally health is the only concern here, he is a THE #1WR otherwise... if you are really concerned about his health, trade for Woods(Woods value is really low and probably lowest it will be all year)

 

fixed to reflect accuracy. 

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4 hours ago, CooL said:

I’m guilty. I was afraid of Cooks and Woods competing for looks. And of course coming off injury. It’s insane that he’s gotten this type of target volume in that offense, but he’s clearly top 5 if it continues. He and Chris Godwin have been the biggest third round surprises. I think both of those guys are easily top 20 picks next year, even if that seems odd to say. They have now moved into the elite category.

Oh there's no doubt about it. You just don't feel like Kupp is in that Hopkins/Julio/Adams tier but when all's said and done he's gonna outproduce them all. 

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3 hours ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

Umm yeah thanks for the info I guess, but I quite clearly said it isn't just Goff he's benefitting from and that Kupp is a legitimately good WR lol. The point was Goff's lack of ability to read a defense will likely ensure Kupp has the continued volume he's been seeing since he is a security blanket on top of everything else.

Can't read defenses? He had two 1,000 yard wrs last year and Kupp had almost 600 before he went down. I think he can read defenses just fine. Maybe the O Line just isn't very good so Goff is always in hurry mode.

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On 10/4/2019 at 3:46 PM, smeeze said:

He took a cleat to the shin and kept having to come out to get it re-taped... did you watch the game?

Sorry man but he missed like two snaps for that. The reason for his 66% snap share is because he barely played in the first quarter as the rams went almost exclusively with a two tight end set with woods and cooks as the wide outs. 

It's kind of bizarre to take your best wr off the field but I guess the rams wanted to go run heavy to start the game and those two wrs are superior blockers to kupp.

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1 hour ago, BLINDSIDERS said:

Can't read defenses? He had two 1,000 yard wrs last year and Kupp had almost 600 before he went down. I think he can read defenses just fine. Maybe the O Line just isn't very good so Goff is always in hurry mode.

 

It's pretty well documented he struggles to read defenses and make on the fly adjustments on his own (as was exploited in last years super bowl). Yardage numbers for receivers are irrelevant to this debate, if his first or possibly second read is there he can get the ball to them as he isn't lacking in arm talent.

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20 hours ago, FreakFries said:

 

 

He had 20 yards on two catches on the last drive in the 4th. Take a look at the game tape and enjoy!

Um, yeah I agree. I watched it. I don't think anyone is arguing that. Your previous post seemed to suggest that those two catches were all that he had after leaving the game briefly, which was not the case. He left the game early in the 3rd and returned virtually immediately. The final drive was obviously at the very end of the game. 

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15 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Everyone who didn't draft this guy should be kicking themselves (that would include me). He was an absolute steal at his ADP. And it's not the hindsight is 20/20 routine. You project his stats last year over a full season he's a WR1. And with Gurley's decline he was now the number one in a great offense who we already knew got targeted a ton. 

You can project alot of players over a few games and see massive "returns"

 

There were alot of mouths to feed in LA. That offense was supposed to be really good so it wasnt really obvious who would benefit. Woods is a great receiver and so is cooks.

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6 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

You can project alot of players over a few games and see massive "returns"

There were alot of mouths to feed in LA. That offense was supposed to be really good so it wasnt really obvious who would benefit. Woods is a great receiver and so is cooks.

Yes, but it was very apparent that Kupp was the number one. Woods is third from strictly a talent perspective, and while Cooks can take the top off the defense he's not nearly as versatile as Kupp, nor does he get nearly as many looks. 

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