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Luke Weaver 2019 Outlook


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22 minutes ago, Cheppy said:

Encouraging start tonight..

Agree but still think I have to drop because of injuries and for other needs. I just don’t see Arizona good enough for him to be worth it. I will watch out for him though. I still think he is going to throw too many clunkers. I really like this guy too. 

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He really busted the cutter out yesterday, so useful in his pitch mix to keep guys from guessing on FB/CH... Averaged almost 96 MPH with the heater yesterday--even touched 98, which is up a few t

Always love your pitcher breakdowns of recent starts. Good work 👍

I think best case now may be 6 weeks and he’s back, but I expect more like 8 weeks. Just my guess.

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Second straight really good start. His season line now looks a little familiar:

Luke Weaver 2019: 3.92 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.08 xFIP, 10.45 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, 53.4 GB%

Luke Weaver 2017: 3.88 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 2.93 xFIP, 10.74 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 1.04 HR/9, 49.4 GB%

Granted those are both small sample sizes and his awful 2018 was not. But maybe he’s getting back to what was working for him 2 years ago?

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Had him dropped him...gonna had him again.... 2  start next week going to ride with him I spent after today's start I didn't see the game so can someone tell me why he came out in the 5th . Was it pitch count just curious small detail but just wondering

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6 minutes ago, bugkilla said:

Had him dropped him...gonna had him again.... 2  start next week going to ride with him I spent after today's start I didn't see the game so can someone tell me why he came out in the 5th . Was it pitch count just curious small detail but just wondering

At 93 pitches. They just decided to go with the pen.

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Looking ahead has a great matchup with Pittsburgh and Trevor Williams but then Cole Hamels later in the week and he hadcareer stats against Pittsburgh are good career stats against Cubs so-so ... One great start has me excited any deep divers care to elaborate

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5 minutes ago, bugkilla said:

Looking ahead has a great matchup with Pittsburgh and Trevor Williams but then Cole Hamels later in the week and he hadcareer stats against Pittsburgh are good career stats against Cubs so-so ... One great start has me excited any deep divers care to elaborate

 

Not exactly. As I mentioned in the gameday thread, career vs CHC: 25 IP, 25 ER

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43 minutes ago, bugkilla said:

Looking ahead has a great matchup with Pittsburgh and Trevor Williams but then Cole Hamels later in the week and he hadcareer stats against Pittsburgh are good career stats against Cubs so-so ... One great start has me excited any deep divers care to elaborate

 

37 minutes ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

 

Not exactly. As I mentioned in the gameday thread, career vs CHC: 25 IP, 25 ER

 

Right, they are so, so terrible.

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Well, at least he's slowly sorta moving away from being a predictable 2 pitch guy.

The FC (cutter) was out and fairly exciting today, threw 9--7 for strikes with 3 whiffs, pitch had all kinds of action on it at 87.5 MPH

FB (93.6 MPH) and CH (84 MPH) were mostly around the zone (accounting for 80 of his 93 pitches today overall) got 7 whiffs apiece with each!

Mixed in 6 Curves, OK shape to the pitch and it comes in just over 80 MPH...

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4 minutes ago, TTRA1N said:

Who is starting him against Cubs today?

Me.  Didn't even hesitate putting him in there actually.

Sure, the Cubs aren't the best matchup, especially on the road for whatever reason, but Weaver has been rolling. 

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13 hours ago, pierceNKC said:

What’s everyone’s expectations moving forward?

 

Not looking great this weekend @ Coors...

Staying far away at least for that start.  Granted it was against the Cubs, but he was pretty bad against them at home.  That's easily enough to erase the run he had and make me not want to touch his next start in a far worse environment.

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He gave up a couple homers against the Cubs but still had 5 K and 1 BB. The excellent K/BB ratio is what excites me about him and that was still there.

I'd avoid at Coors obviously but I'm still a big fan long term. If he gets hit hard there and someone drops him, I'd pounce.

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Oops, we messed up by sitting him.  Who knew Luke was going to dominate Colorado in Coors after the way his last game went?  Hmmm, maybe he is for real and the Cubs game was a blip...

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10 hours ago, HulkSmash said:

[...]

Just a year ago, Luke was similar to the buzz Flaherty has now.  At this point, I might take Luke over Flaherty ( but wouldn't mind having both ).

 

I think a lot of people lose sight of perspective with budding starting pitchers. Weaver was highly rated in the Cardinals farm system for a reason. He's a solid young pitcher that is a great candidate to take the next step ROS. If you believe in him even a little he's worth rostering, even through the bad starts/growing pains you can and will see with up and coming pitchers.

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He really busted the cutter out yesterday, so useful in his pitch mix to keep guys from guessing on FB/CH...

Averaged almost 96 MPH with the heater yesterday--even touched 98, which is up a few ticks even from a couple weeks ago, 7 whiffs with it.

CH was still main secondary, sat 85 and had great movement, accrued 8 whiffs with it.

FC the cutter was brought out 23 times and comes in right between his CH and FB at about 89 MPH, really nice action on it too, 87% strike rate and 3 whiffs

Spun up a few curves, at least threw 4 of 5 for strikes, at 83 MPH it comes in a few ticks less than the change

...all in all, a bunch to like here in the metrics

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8 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

He really busted the cutter out yesterday, so useful in his pitch mix to keep guys from guessing on FB/CH...

Averaged almost 96 MPH with the heater yesterday--even touched 98, which is up a few ticks even from a couple weeks ago, 7 whiffs with it.

CH was still main secondary, sat 85 and had great movement, accrued 8 whiffs with it.

FC the cutter was brought out 23 times and comes in right between his CH and FB at about 89 MPH, really nice action on it too, 87% strike rate and 3 whiffs

Spun up a few curves, at least threw 4 of 5 for strikes, at 83 MPH it comes in a few ticks less than the change

...all in all, a bunch to like here in the metrics

Always love your pitcher breakdowns of recent starts. Good work 👍

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1 hour ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I think a lot of people lose sight of perspective with budding starting pitchers. Weaver was highly rated in the Cardinals farm system for a reason. He's a solid young pitcher that is a great candidate to take the next step ROS. If you believe in him even a little he's worth rostering, even through the bad starts/growing pains you can and will see with up and coming pitchers.

He was probably never going to reach his potential with the Cardinals oddly enough.  The Diamondbacks changed how he pitches (at least I assume it was them and not Weaver himself).  He no longer touches the ground with his one leg during his motion, and it seems like he doesn't nibble like he did with the Cards.  The latter had to have been a big reason why he tanked after a really strong partial first season.

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