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Luke Weaver 2019 Outlook


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He really busted the cutter out yesterday, so useful in his pitch mix to keep guys from guessing on FB/CH... Averaged almost 96 MPH with the heater yesterday--even touched 98, which is up a few t

Always love your pitcher breakdowns of recent starts. Good work 👍

I think best case now may be 6 weeks and he’s back, but I expect more like 8 weeks. Just my guess.

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The saying is that a second opinion means you didn't like the first one.  However, it really is done just to make sure the original diagnosis (good or bad) is correct.  With elbows on a young player I'd expect a cautious approach and a sizable lay off if it isn't a tear.

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I'm confused by their efforts to decide who will review MRIs. Either you want baseball experts, and those are a very finite field (Andrews, ElAttrache, etc.), or you don't, and then it shouldn't be that hard to find an orthpedic surgeon + radiologist duo. Wonder what's going on behind the scenes that we don't know. 

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3 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

This is the most recent news I’ve seen.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.azcentral.com/amp/1266614001

I don't like the sound of this:

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Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said the club is still awaiting a second opinion on right-hander Luke Weaver’s arm injury, saying arrangements still are being made as far as the doctor or doctors that will review the MRI results.

It appears the initial reading of the MRI suggests Weaver could have a flexor mass strain in his right arm, though an issue with his ulnar collateral ligament hasn’t been ruled out.

Flexor strains can sideline pitchers from anywhere from six to eight weeks or for much longer in the event that surgery is needed. The club is calling the injury a “right forearm strain.”

“I think what we’re trying to do is put everything in the right people’s hands,” Lovullo said, “and give as much information to Luke before a decision is made moving forward.”

A "decision" implies to either rest or to have surgery to me. 

Also what is an ulnar collateral ligament vs a flexor mass?  The former sounds bad especially.

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12 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't like the sound of this:

A "decision" implies to either rest or to have surgery to me. 

Also what is an ulnar collateral ligament vs a flexor mass?  The former sounds bad especially.

I didn’t think the article sounded all that encouraging either. And I’m no expert at all, but from my understanding the UCL is in the elbow and a flexor mass is the forearm near the elbow. 

Basically, UCL very bad. Flexor mass, not so bad. But again, from my understanding. I just want an official time table released for his return.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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I've maintained that it all sounded ominous from jump street here. His velo was up, and rather significantly too, if I am not mistaken...those velo spikes can often lead to these ligaments tearing. At this point I'd be shocked if he is NOT having surgery.

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29 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't like the sound of this:

A "decision" implies to either rest or to have surgery to me. 

Also what is an ulnar collateral ligament vs a flexor mass?  The former sounds bad especially.

 

UCL is the ligament that's repaired by Tommy John. Basically hope for the flexor mass. If it's UCL good chance he'll need Tommy John at some point even if it's not this year.

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For those wondering about flexor mass strains, according to this recent study, the median number of days on the DL was 42. Obviously if his UCL is involved as well, his season could be in jeopardy.

In MLB, 134 forearm flexor injuries occurred with a mean player age of 28.6 years and 111 (82.8%) were pitchers. In the minor leagues, 629 injuries occurred with a mean age of 22.8 years where 494 (78.5%) were pitchers. The highest percentage of injuries occurred in the month of July in both MLB (17.2%) and the minor leagues (17%). The median time spent on the disabled list (DL) for MLB players was 42 days (mean 128.1) compared to 28 days (mean 105.7) in the minor leagues. Of the players in MLB who sustained a forearm injury, subsequent injuries included 50 shoulder (37.3%), 48 elbow (35.8%), and 24 forearm (17.9%) injuries. Over the study period, 26 (19.4%) MLB and 56 minor league players (8.9%) required UCL reconstruction within 365 days of sustaining a forearm injury. Performance declined in virtually all categories in the season leading to the injury when compared to the previous season (n = 75) and significant differences were present in walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP) (from 1.24 to 1.34, P = 0.04) and strike percentage (63% to 62%, P = 0.036).

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The Diamondbacks announced Friday that Luke Weaver was diagnosed with a a mild right flexor pronator strain and a mild right UCL sprain.

The good news, is that Weaver will not require surgery -- instead going the conservative route of rest and rehab. The bad news, is that there's still no clear timetable for his return. Some have speculated a time frame of six-to-eight weeks, which seems standard for this type of injury, but the Diamondbacks didn't want to put any sort of schedule on his recovery. While Weaver is hopeful to return to the mound this season, there's no guarantee that will happen.

Source: MLB.com                                                         May 31, 2019, 11:39 PM ET

When has rest and rehab actually worked either long term or even short term.

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5 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Mild flexor mass strain and mild UCL sprain. Confirmed by four doctors. No time table for his return.

 

 

And that UCL will snap eventually. Even if he gets back this season he's a ticking time bomb. 

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37 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

And that UCL will snap eventually. Even if he gets back this season he's a ticking time bomb. 

 

How do you translate mild sprain to a ligament snapping? This type of sprain is the best case scenario short of a strain. It must be a grade 1 sprain to call it mild so that by definition should mean that it’s fully expected to heal with time. This news should have people in much better spirits because it was expected that this would be a season ending tear that would likely have him out until ASB in 2020. 

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1 hour ago, TheForearmShiver said:

 

How do you translate mild sprain to a ligament snapping? This type of sprain is the best case scenario short of a strain. It must be a grade 1 sprain to call it mild so that by definition should mean that it’s fully expected to heal with time. This news should have people in much better spirits because it was expected that this would be a season ending tear that would likely have him out until ASB in 2020. 

 

I'm not saying it's snapped now. But there isn't an encouraging history on even mild UCL sprains and the eventual need to go under the knife, especially in Luke Weaver's "threw year round as kids" generation. Baseball history is filled with guys at all levels that hurt their UCL and found that rest and rehab wasn't enough. It is very easy to for a pitcher to blow out his elbow if he has previous history of elbow injury. Luke Weaver has that history now. It might hold up for another five or six years, or it could go his first game back, but time and time again we've seen minor elbow injuries (and really, I don't believe there's such a thing for a pitcher) turn into much worse. This is an epidemic that has affected about a quarter of current MLB pitchers, Luke Weaver could very well be the next one.

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They just announced that he's going to do the rest and rehab thing a few days ago -- I wouldn't expect any updated timeline for a while.  The 6-8 weeks number quoted upthread would have starting a rehab assignment after the ASB at the earliest, and there's no guarantee he's as effective as he was.

At this point, he's a guy you have to think about cutting if your DL is full, or to make room for a stash that can give you more immediate help.

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8 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Good news - he’s healing well

I don’t think I’ll ever be optimistic about a guy with a UCL injury but I guess this makes the situation suck a little less. Hopefully he can avoid TJ and get back on the mound sometime this season.

I guess the real gauge will be when he can pick up and toss a ball...These flex mass strains just are so volatile and feels like (as with Glasnow) they are littered with setbacks when rehabbing and just so often result in the zipper...hope it is different with Weaver but I am very skeptical--esp with the velo spike that I have documented thru charting him...

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