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Jesse Winker 2019 Outlook


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Cools off?  He has like a .200 .babip. He hasnt begun to heat up.

He's had a bum shoulder since 2014! Adjusted his swing to make it work so that he could get to the show. Prospect guys always wondered why his power suddenly disappeared in the minors and that is the

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I was thrilled to own him and ecstatic that he apparently found some power.  Some of us are in a position where we have to start him if he’s on our rosters and can’t stash him and wait.   Stats are great,but at some point we have to look at results.  And they ain’t there.  I’m just here to ask if anyone is seeing anything to be encouraged about.

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On 5/14/2019 at 8:01 PM, Cesare13 said:

I’m just here to ask if anyone is seeing anything to be encouraged about.

I’m seeing the opposite, to be honest.

So far in May he has a 66% groundball rate. That’s going to make it really hard to maintain his home run surge.

But more than the power, I’m bothered by the mediocre plate discipline. Where’s the guy who walked more than he struck out last year?

There’s still this exciting Vottolike upside buried somewhere in there but right now he just looks like an average platoon bat.

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He sucked early, then got really hot, now he's totally cooled.  He had a minor injury that didn't help, but no one kills it every day for an entire season.  I like the bat, the skills, the lineup, and where he hits in it.  I also like that they are giving him some play vs LHPs.  He's a total hold for me, but a guy I'm going to stream since I have enough options to do so.  LH heavy week don't start him.  Slumping, don't start him.  When you see a lot of RHP's or him stringing some good games together, put him in.  The talent is there.

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32 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

He sucked early, then got really hot, now he's totally cooled.  He had a minor injury that didn't help, but no one kills it every day for an entire season.  I like the bat, the skills, the lineup, and where he hits in it.  I also like that they are giving him some play vs LHPs.  He's a total hold for me, but a guy I'm going to stream since I have enough options to do so.  LH heavy week don't start him.  Slumping, don't start him.  When you see a lot of RHP's or him stringing some good games together, put him in.  The talent is there.

 

I'm with you.  I think he's trying to figure out what type of player he is/what he wants to be.  He's been swinging a lot more this season, and I think it's because he's trying to hit for more power.  

 

('18/'19)

O-Swing% (22% / 27%)

Z-Swing% (65% / 70%)

Swing% (41% / 46%)

 

The good news is his swinging strike rate, although higher than last season, is still just 7.1% - well below the league average of 11%.  And his contact % is 85%, right in line with last year and well above league average of 76% to date this season.  It actually seems like a bit of an anomaly that he has such a high strikeout rate (19%) for how low his swinging strike rate is (7%).  

 

The guy clearly has a great eye, and he's learning to hit for power.  I think he is just trying to figure out how to blend the two.

 

 

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12 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

I’m seeing the opposite, to be honest.

So far in May he has a 66% groundball rate. That’s going to make it really hard to maintain his home run surge.

But more than the power, I’m bothered by the mediocre plate discipline. Where’s the guy who walked more than he struck out last year?

There’s still this exciting Vottolike upside buried somewhere in there but right now he just looks like an average platoon bat.

To be fair,he IS kind of hitting like votto this year.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I've been benching Winker even vs RHP on the regular lately. 

#558 overall player last 30 days in 12-team H2H. #266 over the last 2 weeks, but he only has 43 ABs over that time because he's auto-benched by his own team v lefties. #333 last 7 days with a nice AVG but an empty one.

For the season he's #567 overall.

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26 minutes ago, Silverdome_Loyal said:

In a dynasty keeper league and on the fence of cutting him yet again 😳

 

I'm with you. Going to see how he plays through the ASB at least. 

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I had to move on. I still like the bat, but he's just not producing enough at this point.  To think I kept him over some other guys that I either dropped or didn't pick up is a bit frustrating, but that's fantasy right?   I'll monitor him and look to see if he heats up down the road.  I think he's going to be a good, fantasy relevant player.  He just isn't one right now.

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If he could combine his walk rate of every year besides this one and his power from this year, he could be a good hitter. At least against righties. I don't see a reason why he can't do that, even though his season to date hasn't show it. His BABIP is way below career norms as well. So he should be much better

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I traded for him at the beginning of the season in dynasty, I was never trading for him to really be a massive contributor this year though.  Obviously this is a bad start, and very uncharacteristic of Winker, I think he’s gonna be just fine in the long run.  There’s no way a player can be as consistent as he was, hovering around .280-.300/.390-.400obp his entire career with amazing k/bb ratios, to suddenly lose that aspect of his game completely.  Not sure this is his year but he’s still only 25 and see him breaking out sometime between now and the all star break next year.

 

for redraft, i wouldn’t blame anyone who drops him.  They’re messing with his head sitting him so often and clearly somethings off, could take a him a while to right the ship

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Difficult for him to break out as expected when his idiot coach benches him every other game. I'll never understand why so many of today's coaches continue to do this to their LH prospects. The platoon route is a great way to halt the correct development of a young player and affect their confidence.

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1 hour ago, ThreadKiller said:

Difficult for him to break out as expected when his idiot coach benches him every other game. I'll never understand why so many of today's coaches continue to do this to their LH prospects. The platoon route is a great way to halt the correct development of a young player and affect their confidence.

As a Reds fan - I know the Reds are only 5 games back but the #1 priority should be developing Senzel and Winker...win/lose or draw those guys are the future of the team and need to play just about every day to develop. I remember MEadows getting called up with Pitt and never getting a chance to play a few months straight as a regular....look how that worked out!  Play the kid!  

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roster crunch and had to drop Winker ... hated to do it but he just isn't producing

hitting .225 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 0 SB over the last month to go with a utility IF OPS of .605

 

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9 minutes ago, axiom20XX said:

how we feeling about him? that average is due for positive regression right?

Yeah, but that’s about the only positive. He’s stopped hitting for power, plate discipline remains just OK and not amazing like last year, he can’t hit lefties and he doesn’t steal bases. His statcast xBA is .265 so he should regress toward that, but it will take more than a 30-point batting average boost to make his profile interesting again.

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He's been pulled early his last three games. In all three games, the opposing team specifically made a pitching switch to bring in a lefty when Winker was up. The Reds then pulled Winker. In two of the three games, the reliever faced just the pinch hitter and left, the other game the reliever faced 2 hitters (and got no outs). It's obviously not good for Winker's value that he's out the second a lefty is on the mound. It's also weird that teams seem to be targeting him to bring in a lefty since he's hardly the team's best hitter (though he does suck against lefties). But why burn a reliever just to have Winker removed from the game? It's an odd strategy, but effectively would kill any value Winker might have.

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On 6/5/2019 at 12:08 PM, jb_power said:

roster crunch and had to drop Winker ... hated to do it but he just isn't producing

hitting .225 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 0 SB over the last month to go with a utility IF OPS of .605

 

 

yep. I finally reached the same point. I had high expectations for him this year--something more like what Max Kepler is currently doing--but he just isn't doing much at all.

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