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Ozzie Albies 2019 Outlook


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Fantastic 1st half. Came down to earth big time in the second half. ADP is still very high at 55-60. I think expectations are high given he's 22 years old and should improve on last year. I would hope he can bat high in the order because with the monsters he has behind him 100 runs would be a lock again. He's got more speed than the 14 SBs he put up last year so hoping for a 20/20 season 100+ runs would warrant his ADP for sure. What's your guys thoughts on his first and second half splits and where he'll hit in the stacked Atlanta lineup? Rumblings are 1. Inciarte 2. Albies 3. Freeman 4. Acuna 5. Donaldson. This is an ideal spot if this is the order. 

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I’m not concerned about the second half split, but that’s more because I think there’s a much more viable split that is actually a reason for at least short term concern, and that’s his numbers v RHP.

June splits: 1.122 OPS, 182 WRC, 3 HR, 8 BB, 1 SB

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7 minutes ago, Ry34No said:

Fantastic 1st half. Came down to earth big time in the second half. ADP is still very high at 55-60. I think expectations are high given he's 22 years old and should improve on last year. I would hope he can bat high in the order because with the monsters he has behind him 100 runs would be a lock again. He's got more speed than the 14 SBs he put up last year so hoping for a 20/20 season 100+ runs would warrant his ADP for sure. What's your guys thoughts on his first and second half splits and where he'll hit in the stacked Atlanta lineup? Rumblings are 1. Inciarte 2. Albies 3. Freeman 4. Acuna 5. Donaldson. This is an ideal spot if this is the order. 

 

I’m not concerned about the second half split, but that’s more because I think there’s a much more viable split that is actually a reason for at least short term concern, and that’s his numbers v RHP.

 

I don’t think people are making nearly enough of that split. He slashed .231/.283/.412 v RHP and .335/.357/.548 v LHP. 

 

Im not really concerned about it long term at the moment, but with his talent and 5-Cat upside, the price is pretty rich right now, and it’s not a price IMO worth paying for someone who’s career obp v. The dominant hand is sub-.300 and career OPS is sub-.700. 

 

Ill pass at ADP. Still a talented player with a lot of upside tho. 

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Reminds me a lot of Odor. Not sure if that's a good thing. And not just the fact that both got called up at age ~20.

 

 

Albies has nearly identical K:BB ratio in his first 2 years as Odor did his first 2 years in MLB.

 

And with the exception of Odor taking more swinging called strikes, their plate discipline numbers are eerily similar:

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Edited by cs3
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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

Reminds me a lot of Odor. Not sure if that's a good thing. And not just the fact that both got called up at age ~20.

 

 

Albies has nearly identical K:BB ratio in his first 2 years as Odor did his first 2 years in MLB.

 

And with the exception of Odor taking more swinging called strikes, their plate discipline numbers are eerily similar:

5cb08ak.png

qesTFlQ.png

 

I don't think you're wrong in the term similar, but I do think Albies' Plate Discipline can be more characterized as being aggressive with a "meh" eye whereas Odor's eye is just trash. I mean at least that 82.3% Z-Swing means he's not just CHASING but going after pitches.

 

But Albies should just be more selective, ultimately. 

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Good point tao, I agree there.

 

 

* Also, I can't edit my post now, but it should say Odor takes more called strikes.

Not sure why I wrote "swinging called strikes" 

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What happened to the speed last year? He's capable of 30+ SB. I doubt he sustains 24 HR power, more likely to be in the teens. If he's going to be a 15/15 type player with low AVG and OBP where exactly is the value here? If he can get back to his speed potential then you can justify a pick in the top 4 rounds. I'm not sure I can pay for the hope the speed comes back.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I find it super impressive a 21 year old switch hitter was able translate power on both his swings with healthy contact ability. Part of his disapointment was from the super high expectations his rookie year gave us. 

Don't underestimate this dudes feel to hit. Aggressive, but swung at more pitches in the K zone then just about anyone. There is a non bad eye, contact and power in there. In-experience and aggressiveness shadow'd in last year. 

 

Right handed Changes and Curve's just gave him a lot of trouble. His absolute love to hitting fastballs no matter what got exploted by pitchers with good change ups. Even though he didn't whiff on the pitch. It induces copious amounts of weak contact and kept him way off balance. Preventing from total domination vs FBs. To just simply solid.

 Ditto on right handers who's curve and FB release points could be mimicked.

 

There is still massive upside in 5X5. IMO. 

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2 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

I find it super impressive a 21 year old switch hitter was able translate power on both his swings with healthy contact ability. Part of his disapointment was from the super high expectations his rookie year gave us. 

Don't underestimate this dudes feel to hit. Aggressive, but swung at more pitches in the K zone then just about anyone. There is a non bad eye, contact and power in there. In-experience and aggressiveness shadow'd in last year. 

 

Right handed Changes and Curve's just gave him a lot of trouble. His absolute love to hitting fastballs no matter what got exploted by pitchers with good change ups. Even though he didn't whiff on the pitch. It induces copious amounts of weak contact and kept him way off balance. Preventing from total domination vs FBs. To just simply solid.

 Ditto on right handers who's curve and FB release points could be mimicked.

 

There is still massive upside in 5X5. IMO. 

 

My only disappointment in him last year was the lack of speed. A guy who had 29, 30, and 29 steals heading into last season, ended up with 14. He only attempted 17 so his success rate was pretty good too. Acuna saw similar drop in SB, so maybe its just a push by the org?

Either way, I agree with the above, he's still very young and can grow, just not sure if I'm willing to pay for growth this season.

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I loved Albies and it was a tough decision to not keep him, but I see a below projections year for 2019. I don't think he will earn time to hit in the top 5 of the lineup. Don't think he hits 20 stolen bases. His 2nd half showed more his real power projection as well. I think there's a good amount of value you can find at 2B later in the draft in my opinion. Best of luck to every Albies owner. I love him to death, but couldn't bring myself to ride the train this year. 

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4 minutes ago, Bigfische said:

There is a chance here that Inciarte struggles, Acuna mashes in the clean up role, and Albies leads off later on this season.

 

It's certainly possible but I don't think it's likely that Albies leads off much this season. I'm confident it'll be Inciarte to begin the year and if he struggles I think Acuna is the next man hitting leadoff. It would take both Inciarte and Acuna struggling for an extended period of time to get Albies into the leadoff spot.

I really think that Inciarte goes back to producing like he did in the 1st half of 2018. The main reason why people are not confident in him hitting leadoff right now is that his counting stats, SB attempts in particular, dropped off in the 2nd half after he was bumped to the bottom of the lineup. This move was a result of Acuna taking over the leadoff spot and thriving, which resulted in Snitker deciding to not have Inciarte run when he's got the pitcher coming up after him and then Acuna leading off. 

Again, I'm not saying it's impossible for it to happen but I think Albies owners need a lot to go their way to see him at the top of the Braves lineup on a consistent basis this year.

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So I know I said Albies won't lead off and though I still believe it's unlikely here's today's lineup. 

 

Albies, Donaldson, Freeman, Acuna, Markakis, McCann, Inciarte, Swanson

Edited by BostonCajun
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On 3/15/2019 at 12:05 PM, BostonCajun said:

So I know I said Albies won't lead off and though I still believe it's unlikely here's today's lineup. 

 

Albies, Donaldson, Freeman, Acuna, Markakis, McCann, Inciarte, Swanson

I usually don't care about spring training much but I've been keeping an eye on Ozzie. Was hoping to see an improvement in average, walk rate, and therefore steals. Not the case so far. I still believe in him long-term but a lot of people seem down on him for this year.

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I follow the Braves closely ............ Ozzie is such a free swinger with little plate discipline.   It has always seem to work for him as he is a contact hitter ...at least till the 2nd half last year. 

I'd like to see some patience at the plate and him work the count more. IMO ....Till he does he is going to have some struggles against better to elite pitching. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Seems people are really down on Albies.  Are people really thinking 2018 will just be a career year for him?  I wasn't too high on him before last year as far as fantasy.  Didn't think he'd have nearly as much power as he showed.  But a lot of guys showed more power last year than I ever believed possible.

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19 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

Seems people are really down on Albies.  Are people really thinking 2018 will just be a career year for him?  I wasn't too high on him before last year as far as fantasy.  Didn't think he'd have nearly as much power as he showed.  But a lot of guys showed more power last year than I ever believed possible.

Last year Albies ADP was about 120.  This year it's around 50.  If his ADP this year was closer to let's say 80 then I think a lot more people would be high on him, but he fell apart in the 2nd half last year.  If he his halves were switched around last year I don't think anyone would be down on him and he'd probably be a 3rd round pick but it seemed like he regressed and/or that pitchers figured him out.

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1 hour ago, MrBrown said:

Seems people are really down on Albies.  Are people really thinking 2018 will just be a career year for him?  I wasn't too high on him before last year as far as fantasy.  Didn't think he'd have nearly as much power as he showed.  But a lot of guys showed more power last year than I ever believed possible.

No. He's 22 and still immensely talented. People writing him off are being reactionary and probably the same ones who were anointing him the next Betts/Altuve/Harper a year ago. I expect another step forward and a solid fantasy year from Albies.

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49 minutes ago, 6Kill said:

Last year Albies ADP was about 120.  This year it's around 50.  If his ADP this year was closer to let's say 80 then I think a lot more people would be high on him, but he fell apart in the 2nd half last year.  If he his halves were switched around last year I don't think anyone would be down on him and he'd probably be a 3rd round pick but it seemed like he regressed and/or that pitchers figured him out.

 

Could it be that maybe fatigue kicked in?  Maybe he wasn't ready physically for the long season?

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Yea I think everyone forgets what a 162 game grind does to a rookie.  No matter how talented a player is it’s such a big adjustment. Then add to that playing against the very best with every opposing team analyzing your weaknesses and having to adjust to that.  

Keep in mind this guy has to do it as a switch hitter. Maybe that’s an advantage or maybe a disadvantage?  It took someone like Alex Bregman who I’d say is on par talent wise awhile to really get going.  Once he adjusted you saw what happened.  Just like the Astros of a few years ago this Braves team is in a very similar situation for Albies.  Great lineup, will have some protection to work through any struggles.  This kid will only get better.  He has “it”, numbers and metrics aside sometimes you just know when a player is going to be bigtime!  I’d say the biggest reason he’s being doubted is his ADP, anything outside top 75 is a steal in my opinion. Doubt you could get him there in most leagues.

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2 hours ago, MrBrown said:

"Albies, who is hitting sixth Thursday against the Phillies, will lead off against lefties this season, Gabe Burns of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports"

I like this. Just want to see some good on-base skills and him using his legs.

Not fantasy related, but Ozzie is such a pleasure to watch playing in the field.

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Regular watching Braves fan here. Left-handed swing looks MUCH better this season. He totally lost it second-half last year. Also showing improved plate discipline thus far and going to be leading off vs lefties. 😎

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