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Rougned Odor 2019 Outlook


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Crazy to think that he just turned 25. 

 

2016 was pretty nice...2017 was a BA disaster even though the counting numbers weren't that off. Then last year began absolutely horribly. He battled injuries on his way to a .204 BA, a single HR, and one SB to go with 4 CS as he entered June. Then things began to turn the right way in the second half of June, hitting .279 with 3 HR from June 16-30. This lead to a great run in July and August before reverting back to full suckage again in September. It was like 2016 and 2017 combined to give us 2018. 

 

So where does that leave us for 2019? With a young guy who has been all over the map. I feel like he's going to give us a .250s BA, 150 R/RBI, and 25-30 HR but do so in a maddeningly inconsistent way. I'm not really sure to make of his SBs. He's a terrible base-stealer, and yet he continues to reach double-digits. His career SB% is 57 in his first five seasons. Time to just put the red light on this guy.

 

One good sign is his walk rate jumping up significantly. Can he keep that up? One disturbing thing from his 2018 season is the fact that nearly half his RBI came in the month of August. 

 

Thoughts on Odor this year and going forward? 

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Odor: a distinctive smell, especially a unpleasant one.

I'm not going to let a 2 week sample eliminate what I thought about him going into the year.  I pegged him at .250  25-30 HR and 15 SB.  Still have hope for that type of pace.

And the 3 people that actually played him after his "performance" last night (and this season as a whole) stood up and gave him a mock standing ovation. I didn't, but I'll still say... "Way to go

10 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

One good sign is his walk rate jumping up significantly. Can he keep that up? One disturbing thing from his 2018 season is the fact that nearly half his RBI came in the month of August. 

 

Thoughts on Odor this year and going forward? 

 

I think a walk rate is sustainable.  He might have a little value in him this season.

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11 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Crazy to think that he just turned 25. 

 

2016 was pretty nice...2017 was a BA disaster even though the counting numbers weren't that off. Then last year began absolutely horribly. He battled injuries on his way to a .204 BA, a single HR, and one SB to go with 4 CS as he entered June. Then things began to turn the right way in the second half of June, hitting .279 with 3 HR from June 16-30. This lead to a great run in July and August before reverting back to full suckage again in September. It was like 2016 and 2017 combined to give us 2018. 

 

So where does that leave us for 2019? With a young guy who has been all over the map. I feel like he's going to give us a .250s BA, 150 R/RBI, and 25-30 HR but do so in a maddeningly inconsistent way. I'm not really sure to make of his SBs. He's a terrible base-stealer, and yet he continues to reach double-digits. His career SB% is 57 in his first five seasons. Time to just put the red light on this guy.

 

One good sign is his walk rate jumping up significantly. Can he keep that up? One disturbing thing from his 2018 season is the fact that nearly half his RBI came in the month of August. 

 

Thoughts on Odor this year and going forward? 

I love this type of player.  Post hype, toolsy young former Uber prospect that everyone forgot about because he had some things in his game to correct.  It’s very easy to find reasons not to draft him.  I fell for that last year with Trevor story and Baez.  I’m not saying that odor will turn into round 2 value...but would it be the most shocking thing if he did? As far as sbs go, it’s just as likely that an awful rangers team lets him run (and maybe learn to be a base stealer) as they are to put the brakes on.  Think kc royals.  Not a safe pick at all,but the risk/reward is very favorable in my opinion.

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Activly deciding to be more patient for hitters who have a bad feel for the K Zone doesn't really change too much for his outlook. 

 

He reduced his Swing rate by 5%, but he also swung at a lot less pitches in the K-Zone. The results will be a higher OBP, but he's also swinging at less pitches that he would usually crush for HRs.

 

His pitches per plate appearance was the same 2017 to 2018. He was actually ahead in the count LESS than in 2017. I think he benefited from pitchers knowing his reputation as super aggressive. He got some pretty easy walks by simply being slightly less aggressive. Not ever being remotely challenged.

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He is trying to reinvent "launch angle" from what I've seen. His swing is reminiscent of the angry drunk softball guy who's 40 and plays three nights a week. 

Seriously though, he's hit a few balls hard, but his cuts are just violent. Bat is going @ 45 degree uppercut the dozen AB's I've seen this year. Think HR derby kinda swing. Is this his normal approach? 

 

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6 hours ago, Max Rockatansky said:

He looks like garbage out there.

Dude is absolute trash. Should try hitting with his fist instead of a bat. That's the only time i've ever seen him hit anything. 

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23 hours ago, lehighterp said:

What are expectations for Rougy moving forward?! 😂

That he doesn't royally suck like he did to start the season before he got hurt...

Truthfully, I expect him to get things going at some point and still be a solid enough 2B.  Regardless of where the average ends up, he's still going to hit his HRs.  He's proven that over the last several years.

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Probably should have stayed on the DL. Or just beat himself with a bat repeatedly so he'd never come back this season so I could cut him and then try to erase drafting him from my memory...

Yes, I realize my tune about Odor changed greatly over the last day... lol

Edited by KilloWertz
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On 4/25/2019 at 10:26 AM, 33legend said:

I'm not going to let a 2 week sample eliminate what I thought about him going into the year.  I pegged him at .250  25-30 HR and 15 SB.  Still have hope for that type of pace.

me too,and i was hoping hed have a breakout season and maybe exceed those numbers based on last years july and prospect pedigree.  Its ljke he had his breakout at age 21 and has somehow beem getting progressively worse.  Hes got a bit of a benjamin button thing going here.

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10 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

He is streaky as it gets, and a fantasy monster ( top 10 production) when he heats up.  Stash in deep leagues, in shallower formats monitor closely from the wire and snatch up before his next hot streak. 

 

Stash until July...

Edited by michaelai3
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On 4/25/2019 at 9:26 AM, 33legend said:

I'm not going to let a 2 week sample eliminate what I thought about him going into the year.  I pegged him at .250  25-30 HR and 15 SB.  Still have hope for that type of pace.

2 week sample? He sucked all of last year with the exception of one month.

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2 hours ago, michaelai3 said:

3-Run HR today! I really hope July comes early this year for Odor.

And the 3 people that actually played him after his "performance" last night (and this season as a whole) stood up and gave him a mock standing ovation.

I didn't, but I'll still say... "Way to go, Odor!  You still are having an awful f'ing season!"

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