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Dallas Keuchel 2019 Outlook


Flyman75
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  • 2 weeks later...
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Dallas Keuchel told Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports that he's turned down "numerous deals."

The specifics of those offers are unclear, but Keuchel said his agent, Scott Boras, recommended that he seriously consider some of them. However, the southpaw said he rejected them on "principle" because he wasn't getting what he considers to be fair market value. He's rightfully frustrated at the system, but holding firm on his asking price. One hurdle to a potential deal is that Keuchel is attached to draft pick compensation, but that will no longer be the case once this year's draft takes place on June 3. There's always a chance that some team will jump in before that date, but it would be pretty surprising if he's on the market much longer after that. Keuchel, 31, put up a 3.74 ERA over 34 starts with the Astros last year and would help plenty of teams right now.

 

doesn't sound like Keuchel is willing to take less than what he feels he is deserved, even with agent Scott Boras saying he should consider them.

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5 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

doesn't sound like Keuchel is willing to take less than what he feels he is deserved, even with agent Scott Boras saying he should consider them.

 

Wonder if he has factored in that pitchers frequently don't fair very well when they come back mid-season and so a team should reasonably discount how much productive play they will get for him.  Unless there is a bidding war, I think any pitcher who doesn't start with a team should expect their FA value to be lower mid-season than it was in the offseason even above and beyond a simple pro-rata for the remainder of the season.  (I.e., if a guy was worth $10M in the offseason and misses 20% of the season he is worth less than 80% of that offseason value because you should expect it to take him a few weeks before he can really contribute at a normal performance level after he returns.)

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Kuechel and Kimbrel is still stuck on the 17 mill 1 year qualifying offers they rejected. those offers are gone. Now they have to wait til after the draft to sign anywhere since no use forfeiting a draft pick to sign either. Kimbrel will be lucky to pitch 40 innings if he signed right now. My expectation is both sign after the draft for less than they want. they both get injured in the minors while preparing to join their new teams in July. They both scuffle to their new teams in August then they can finally show who made the biggest mistakes. I always expected Kuechel to resign with the Astros since their draft pick was never in jeopardy. Kimbrel burnt his Boston bridge pretty good. Good luck to both guys they will truly need it.

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20 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

doesn't sound like Keuchel is willing to take less than what he feels he is deserved, even with agent Scott Boras saying he should consider them.

 

I'm not a big Boras guy but many fans seem to forget he works for the players, i.e. final say is theirs. I think regardless of where he signs it's gonna be a lost season. At best he could help during a stretch run but I doubt he's even game ready before July at this point. 

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1 minute ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I'm not a big Boras guy but many fans seem to forget he works for the players, i.e. final say is theirs. I think regardless of where he signs it's gonna be a lost season. At best he could help during a stretch run but I doubt he's even game ready before July at this point. 

 

my comment regarding Boras was it seemed surprising to me. Boras seems like the type that would tell a player to wait and get more than market value, so if Boras is the one telling Keuchel to consider these offers then that is surprising and more of a sign that Keuchel is asking for too much.

 

I took Keuchel in a trade mid April where he was basically a throw in from an owner with numerous players injured. I've been trying to trade Keuchel based more 2017 numbers, but I think whenever he is pitching he could be more like 2018 numbers in ERA/WHIP, and he doesn't help in K's. he's "name value" now and I wouldn't be expecting something that good this season.

 

 

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Im pretty sure he said that he’s been pitching 95 pitch simulated games every 5 days to be ready to join a team immediately after he signs. I would guess probably 2 minor league starts before joining his new team. I’m guessing mid June is when we see him pitch. 

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3 minutes ago, radioflyer9 said:

Im pretty sure he said that he’s been pitching 95 pitch simulated games every 5 days to be ready to join a team immediately after he signs. I would guess probably 2 minor league starts before joining his new team. I’m guessing mid June is when we see him pitch. 

 

I'd say 2 minor league starts is an absolute best case.

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35 minutes ago, radioflyer9 said:

Im pretty sure he said that he’s been pitching 95 pitch simulated games every 5 days to be ready to join a team immediately after he signs. I would guess probably 2 minor league starts before joining his new team. I’m guessing mid June is when we see him pitch. 

 

Of course he says he is throwing mid 90’s, he isn’t gonna tell people he is at 90..lol

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What was his Siera last year, 4.25?  With declining peripherals and a projected 1.3-1.4 WHIP?

As many folks online were commenting, it was sheer insanity that he didn't accept the QO.  The 60 million or so of the 90 million dollar deal he rejected wasn't coming back, but he could have at least erased roughly 18 million from the red ink on his ledger.

 

Not fantasy relevant to any degree, IMHO.  Alex Cobb showed us what happened last year when guys come back having missed spring training and the situation with Keuchel is even worse.  I'd hold Kimbrel, but this guy is a waste of a roster spot (again, IMHO).  

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6 hours ago, hailfire4 said:

I always expected Kuechel to resign with the Astros since their draft pick was never in jeopardy.

It's kind of silly this hasn't happened. Peacock and McHugh have been bad, James is producing negative WAR as a reliever, and Whitley has an ERA over 10 at AAA. The Astros could really use Keuchel back. He swallows his pride, takes a 1-year deal for a little less than the QO (since it's May already), and everybody wins.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I think he’s worth stashing. Some leagues have an NA slot so he doesn’t take up bench space. Even in leagues that don’t, he’s an above average pitcher that will be signed sometime next week. They say he’s been throwing simulated games this whole time to stay stretched out so he may only need 3 preparation starts before pitching in the majors. That would have him starting in mid-June. 

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Keuchel will be signed immediately following the June 3rd draft. I still find it humerous that articles are pondering why he hasn't been signed yet.  Some professional writers even invested keystrokes to posit what the teams would specifically have to give up in terms of draft pick and international draft pool money compensation to sign him before the draft in..........4 days.

There is 0% chance he's signed before 6/3.  And I would venture there's 99.9% chance he's signed by a contending team on 6/3 once draft pick compensation is gone.  I'm sure he and his agent are fully aware of this and have already been negotiating possible terms behind closed doors and are just waiting for the draft to be completed.

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once Keuchel is signed, how long would it be before he can start? he should already be throwing, but I imagine he would want/need something like 2 to 3 weeks in the minors.

 

how good he could be this season might depend on where he signs. there is also a question of whether he can be 2017 Keuchel, or do people get the 2018 Keuchel.

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5 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

once Keuchel is signed, how long would it be before he can start? he should already be throwing, but I imagine he would want/need something like 2 to 3 weeks in the minors.

 

how good he could be this season might depend on where he signs. there is also a question of whether he can be 2017 Keuchel, or do people get the 2018 Keuchel.

 

it's an odd numbered year 2019...so there's that ;)

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4 hours ago, Gandalfthecat said:

Are people still stashing this guy? Is he even worth stashing? 


I guess it largely depends where he lands but it sounds like he's going to land somewhere soon. 

 

I mean the draft is in a few days. If you've stashed this far gotta hold steady at this point. 

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23 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

once Keuchel is signed, how long would it be before he can start? he should already be throwing, but I imagine he would want/need something like 2 to 3 weeks in the minors.

 

how good he could be this season might depend on where he signs. there is also a question of whether he can be 2017 Keuchel, or do people get the 2018 Keuchel.

 

Yeah despite his simulated game regiment, I imagine any team would probably want him to get 1 or 2 real-deal tune ups in at AAA.

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5 hours ago, Gandalfthecat said:

Are people still stashing this guy? Is he even worth stashing? 


I guess it largely depends where he lands but it sounds like he's going to land somewhere soon. 

 

Drafted late, stashed and held.  I'm hoping to be rewarded for the decision soon as I'm in desperate need of a #4/#5 SP pitcher in both those leagues.

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