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Jarred Kelenic - OF - SEA


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  • 2 months later...
1 hour ago, hawkeyezz said:

Any updates from Seattle?

They aren't going to start his service clock especially with Kyle Lewis returning to their lineup today.  Add in Haniger being hot and Trammel too and there isn't a crying need in the outfield for him either to force Seattle's hands.

And if Seattle waits until the Super 2 June call-up period they not only get an extra year of ownership of him but also push back his being eligible for arbitration for a year as well and Seattle would love to save money on him too because if he is as good as projected the arbitration figures could be through the roof.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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31 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

And if Seattle waits until the Super 2 June call-up period they not only get an extra year of ownership of him but also push back his being eligible for arbitration for a year as well and Seattle would love to save money on him too because if he is as good as projected the arbitration figures could be through the roof.

Not compelling enough. He should be up this week or next. They get the extra year of control already.  If they save $20 million bucks 7 years from now for one year it's irrelevant  It's one year. If the team is good and they need 20 million for a reliever or a veteran, they'll be able to afford it. . Paying a superstar 20 million for one year in his prime is an incredible deal and if he's that good it means the 6 yeas prior were probably mostly amazing deals on a per year basis too.

I think Julio gets the super 2 treatment but Kelenic is up pretty soon.  He's probably the best hitter on the team now and it's embarrassing he didn't make the opening day roster.

Getting an extra year is important, the super 2 savings just isn't unless you're a small market team, and still it's something 6 years away.  The GMs of the team might not even be there in 6 years.   Even with the theoretical savings in Super 2 players, you're still getting them for less time in the majors too. 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Not compelling enough. He should be up this week or next. They get the extra year of control already.  If they save $20 million bucks 7 years from now for one year it's irrelevant  It's one year. If the team is good and they need 20 million for a reliever or a veteran, they'll be able to afford it. . Paying a superstar 20 million for one year in his prime is an incredible deal and if he's that good it means the 6 yeas prior were probably mostly amazing deals on a per year basis too.

I think Julio gets the super 2 treatment but Kelenic is up pretty soon.  He's probably the best hitter on the team now and it's embarrassing he didn't make the opening day roster.

Getting an extra year is important, the super 2 savings just isn't unless you're a small market team, and still it's something 6 years away.  The GMs of the team might not even be there in 6 years.   Even with the theoretical savings in Super 2 players, you're still getting them for less time in the majors too. 

 

And where does he play?  Seattle's outfield is kind of crowded right now and they are a hot team so no one wants t mess up the current lineup during a hot streak.  And arbitration (Super 2) isn't a 6 year to 7 year thing at all. Oranges and apples.

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10 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And where does he play?  Seattle's outfield is kind of crowded right now and they are a hot team so no one wants t mess up the current lineup during a hot streak.  And arbitration (Super 2) isn't a 6 year to 7 year thing at all. Oranges and apples.

The 6-7 thing is more important than the super 2 discount in year 7 was my point. I really think it’s overblown except for the cheapest of teams. 
 

As to where he plays. I will keep this simple. He’s their team’s best option at any outfield spot or dh. He is their best hitter. Where does everyone else play is what they should figure out. At least that’s how I see it right now.

They are also first in their division right now. Seems dumb not to call him up soon to me. Not enough of a gain to wait .

Edited by brockpapersizer
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My theory is that if Seattle promotes Kelenic now it would basically be an admission that Kevin Mather’s service time manipulation strategy was true. I think they’re concerned about a potential service time grievance now that Mather opened his dumb mouth.

And I agree with Brock, he’s they’re best outfielder right now. Trammell is striking out 42.6% of the time. While he’s also doing some other good things, that’s problematic and he’s probably better served as the 4th outfielder for a team that could be competitive this year.

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On 4/21/2021 at 5:51 AM, meh2 said:

My theory is that if Seattle promotes Kelenic now it would basically be an admission that Kevin Mather’s service time manipulation strategy was true. I think they’re concerned about a potential service time grievance now that Mather opened his dumb mouth.

And I agree with Brock, he’s they’re best outfielder right now. Trammell is striking out 42.6% of the time. While he’s also doing some other good things, that’s problematic and he’s probably better served as the 4th outfielder for a team that could be competitive this year.

Even if the Seattle brass were telling the truth no one would believe it. The perception is bad regardless so just bring him up right when the service time is reached. 

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On 4/21/2021 at 2:51 AM, meh2 said:

My theory is that if Seattle promotes Kelenic now it would basically be an admission that Kevin Mather’s service time manipulation strategy was true. I think they’re concerned about a potential service time grievance now that Mather opened his dumb mouth.

And I agree with Brock, he’s they’re best outfielder right now. Trammell is striking out 42.6% of the time. While he’s also doing some other good things, that’s problematic and he’s probably better served as the 4th outfielder for a team that could be competitive this year.

everyone knows it anyway imo

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

everyone knows it anyway imo

Agreed, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a team of lawyers working on a defense for the inevitable grievance.

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Just now, meh2 said:

Agreed, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a team of lawyers working on a defense for the inevitable grievance.

What a waste of time by everyone involved.  Kris Bryant got denied, so either the interview swayed it for Kelenic or it didn't, I'm not sure the call up date matters that much in that equation. So annoying that the best players cant just play.  Easily the stupidest thing about baseball.

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If I wasnt committed to fantasy leagues for years and years, i would've stopped caring about baseball years ago.

 

Such a s---y, poorly run league.  One that goes out of it's way to alienate it's talent and therefore its fans.

 

/rant

Edited by crotchcrickets
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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

What if he gets called up soon and then hits the rookie wall but august/September 🤔

He could, but I don't know, he can MASH. Call me "optimistic or whatever, but if he gets called up in June and gets 400AB, I'm expecting .310/.380/.500 20hr/10sb 

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4 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

He could, but I don't know, he can MASH. Call me "optimistic or whatever, but if he gets called up in June and gets 400AB, I'm expecting .310/.380/.500 20hr/10sb 

I wouldnt project a 310 average on anyone really. Maybe Altuve/Pujols/Miggy in their prime. Really upper echelon hitters who have proven it.  Not saying Kelenic can't be that one day, it's within the realm of possibilities, but I wouldnt project that.

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9 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I wouldnt project a 310 average on anyone really. Maybe Altuve/Pujols/Miggy in their prime. Really upper echelon hitters who have proven it.  Not saying Kelenic can't be that one day, it's within the realm of possibilities, but I wouldnt project that.

Maybe .300+, but why is it so outlandish? Has it never happened before? Has a rookie never hit .300 or higher in their rookie year? 

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3 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

Maybe .300+, but why is it so outlandish? Has it never happened before? Has a rookie never hit .300 or higher in their rookie year? 

Kelenic/Franco owner here:


It’s the exception, not the rule.

People really like to hype up prospects and say they will do this and they will do that and a lot of people will take that as gospel and leave sorely disappointed more often than not.

I’m not saying Kelenic won’t hit .300+ and go 20/10, but everyone should temper expectations. If he exceeds those tempered expectations, that’s just the cherry on top.

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Yes of course, I can be conservative and project .260-12hr-6sb, but I may drop him if he's a struggling rookie. We all drafted him because we believe in his potential to be the exception, and become a top 35 hitter who goes .310-20hr-10sb. And just from seeing him hit, that's what I think he will do. My "projections",  I'm not a betting site making odds and being reasonable. 

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37 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

Maybe .300+, but why is it so outlandish? Has it never happened before? Has a rookie never hit .300 or higher in their rookie year? 

Not saying it isn't possible, but you said you expect .310. 

Bringing it back to Jose Altuve because Altuve is probably one of the best "for average" hitters we've had in the last decade or so. He's a career .311 hitter. Freddie Freeman, .294. It's just too high of an average for me to predict on just about anyone, let alone a rookie.  If it happens it probably does because of a small sample and babip luck. 

 

20 home runs if called up soon and even over 10 steals seem much more plausible. I have some $ on Kelenic for ROTY, so I do hope he hits .310. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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