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Miguel Sano 2019 Outlook


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Awesome stuff Bradwatson.  I wasn’t even aware of some swing overhaul.  This could be groundbreaking.  I always thought of him as maybe a Joey Gallo-ish / joc  petersony type who would hurt you in average.  Exciting to think of the potential.  Thanks.

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Dont know if people know this, but he hit a towering shot, and I mean a Moom shot tonight in the 8th with one man on off Castillo. Easy home run. Got caught up in the speaker on the roof........then f

Not in the Pensacola game this afternoon. in fact not on the Pensacola bench roster either. Rochester will play tonite they should have an update if Sano is there. Maybe just maybe he is activated tod

They are trying to fix him and this weekend he has shown some encouraging signs...  

8 hours ago, UberRebel said:

It’s amazing that he and Gallo, such similar players have seemingly made the jump from low BA, high K, high power players to offerings more than just HRs

I feel he has been unfairly mislabeled as black hole for average type player.  Names like Adam Dunn and Joey gallo,get tossed around, but I think he’s way better average wise than those guys.  If he hits 45 home runs (2020 projection), which looks very reasonable, and hits .250 -.265, which also looks reasonable, he’s in Pete Alonso territory.  Before I get attacked, I’m not saying he’s better than Pete, .or I’d take him ahead of Pete.  However, you possibly get 80% of Pete Alonso for 40% of father cost. (Just pulling numbers out of this air, but you get the idea.)

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20 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

Sano is still way under the radar this year but even in a record year of power numbers he has stood out...

He's been my pickup of the second half. 

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Hard hit rate of 57% (2nd) and average exit velocity of 94 mph (3rd). He, like Gallo, is proving that in spite of a horrific K rate you can still have plenty of value if when you do make contact you smoke the ball.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Surprised at how quiet this thread is considering what this guy has done in the second half. He's been a league winner. Huge week in what is the finals of most H2H leagues, including 2 bombs on championship Sunday. Finishes the fantasy season with the 2nd highest avg exit velocity at 94.4 and highest hard hit rate at 57.5. 33 homers in only 101 games puts him at a 53 homer pace over a full season, and a decent .248 average to boot. Truly a breakout year for the big man. Can't wait to see what he does next year if he can begin the season healthy.

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7 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

Surprised at how quiet this thread is considering what this guy has done in the second half. He's been a league winner. Huge week in what is the finals of most H2H leagues, including 2 bombs on championship Sunday. Finishes the fantasy season with the 2nd highest avg exit velocity at 94.4 and highest hard hit rate at 57.5. 33 homers in only 101 games puts him at a 53 homer pace over a full season, and a decent .248 average to boot. Truly a breakout year for the big man. Can't wait to see what he does next year if he can begin the season healthy.

 

Totally this. I'm considering keeping him in a keep 6 hitters league. He's so young and still has more potential to improve.

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36 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

 

Totally this. I'm considering keeping him in a keep 6 hitters league. He's so young and still has more potential to improve.

Younger than Hoskins.  I probably won’t be able to keep him sadly.  Hoping he slumps a bit myself to dip under .240 to tarnish his adp a bit next year.  Even though he seems to have a lot of non baseball issues to deal with, I anticipate a lot of helium from early drafts and industry experts.  Provided he stays in shape, I expect huge numbers from him and a draft day value, even for those that reach for him, which I’ll be inclined to do.

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On 9/22/2019 at 8:46 PM, UberRebel said:

 

Totally this. I'm considering keeping him in a keep 6 hitters league. He's so young and still has more potential to improve.

If he can stay healthy and even improve his K-rate even just a bit, as it's still awful regardless, then he definitely could improve upon even what he is doing this season.

He's kind of a slightly older Pete Alonso, who is (rightfully) getting a lot more recognition right now.  Sure, the K-rate is worse and the average is a bit worse, but I don't think Sano would be that far off of him next season if he can stay healthy.  It's pretty obvious Sano should challenge for the MLB lead in HRs, which Alonso should do once again as well.

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22 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

If he can stay healthy and even improve his K-rate even just a bit, as it's still awful regardless, then he definitely could improve upon even what he is doing this season.

He's kind of a slightly older Pete Alonso, who is (rightfully) getting a lot more recognition right now.  Sure, the K-rate is worse and the average is a bit worse, but I don't think Sano would be that far off of him next season if he can stay healthy.  It's pretty obvious Sano should challenge for the MLB lead in HRs, which Alonso should do once again as well.

Believe it or not he did make some K% improvements this year, they just don't really show in his overall stat line for 2019. He made a swing change around the 27th of June. Here are the numbers pre and post-swing change. The 33% K rate, which is still bad, would be the lowest of his MLB career. The post-swing change numbers are top 25 production numbers. The question is can he do this over a full season, and can he stay healthy? If the answer is yes he would certainly be a cheaper alternative to Alonso with probably 90% of the value.

            G      AB    PA     H    1B      2B    3B   HR    R     RBI  BB   IBB  SO  HBP  SF  SH  GDP  SB   CS    AVG   K%
Total    30    111    126    23    7       7      0      9      20    15    14    0     53    0      1     0     0       0      0      .207    42%
Total    71    256    298    68    30    12     2      24    52    62    40    0     99    2      0     0     4       0      1      .266    33%

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I know he made the swing change and actually dropped his K-rate, but I still definitely appreciate the numbers.

Anyways, he still needs to improve there even just a bit to really become a borderline elite slugger.  I say borderline as obviously ones like J.D. Martinez are definitely elite since they hit for a pretty good average too.  Maybe around 30%, which is still not that good, but would be manageable.  Basically, if doesn't flirt with 200 K's on a yearly basis.  Even if he did though, it's obvious there's a lot of potential value there if you just go by the 71 Games.  I don't have a problem with focusing on that and ignoring the first 30 games since that is the production that is really the focus of the discussion of Sano's 2nd half and his outlook for next season.

If he can do that over a full season, he would definitely be Pete Alonso.  Obviously the brakes have to be pumped a little bit considering he's never stayed healthy for a full season, but I also couldn't fault somebody for banking on it/hoping for it and keeping him for next season in keeper/dynasty leagues.  I know I am considering it.

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If we’re talking Pete Alonso comps on here, imagine what will happen to his adp if any major media outlet makes the same comp.  like if yahoo makes an article that mentions that, his adp will explode.  I’m also torn between him and others as a keeper.   If he shows up extremely overweight after an offseason, all bets are off.  His performance is contingent upon his continued attention to physical fitness. 

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2 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

If we’re talking Pete Alonso comps on here, imagine what will happen to his adp if any major media outlet makes the same comp.  like if yahoo makes an article that mentions that, his adp will explode.  I’m also torn between him and others as a keeper.   If he shows up extremely overweight after an offseason, all bets are off.  His performance is contingent upon his continued attention to physical fitness. 

Then I guess major media outlets better not get the same idea in their heads that I did. 😀

I guess Sano tried to make the decision easy tonight.  0-4 with 3 K's.  Although tomorrow he could very well hit one or two HRs, so I guess I'll just shutup...

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  • 2 weeks later...

I hope the Twins bring back Nelson Cruz; guy has been such a great influence on Sano.

 

Also, let’s not forget that his 34 HR in 380 ABs this year was actually 35 HR. I’m counting that HR he launched that hit a speaker in Tropicana was counted as an out.

 

He seems to be going past pick 100 in mock drafts for 2020. That’s amazing to me

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5 hours ago, UberRebel said:

I hope the Twins bring back Nelson Cruz; guy has been such a great influence on Sano.

 

Also, let’s not forget that his 34 HR in 380 ABs this year was actually 35 HR. I’m counting that HR he launched that hit a speaker in Tropicana was counted as an out.

 

He seems to be going past pick 100 in mock drafts for 2020. That’s amazing to me

Yeah I mean power is cheap but he could hit 50 next year, with solid runs and rbi

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