Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Anibal Sanchez 2019 Outlook


Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Last 7 starts...5 wins, 2.17 era, 0.97 whip, 34 k, 41.1 innings. He won’t keep this up all season, but he’s been a nice free agent pickup. 

Why won't he keep it up as in he did this same m.o. last year as well.  Terrible first couple of months as expected but then he followed it up by one of the best pitching runs of the second half.  Maybe he has found the secret to success late in his baseball life.  Snooze through the spring months and then wake up around about June, heh.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Why won't he keep it up as in he did this same m.o. last year as well.  Terrible first couple of months as expected but then he followed it up by one of the best pitching runs of the second half.  Maybe he has found the secret to success late in his baseball life.  Snooze through the spring months and then wake up around about June, heh.

 

I don’t count on any SP to keep up a 2.17 era and 0.97 whip and win 5 games every 7 starts. That’s what I was specifically referring to. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Why won't he keep it up as in he did this same m.o. last year as well.  Terrible first couple of months as expected but then he followed it up by one of the best pitching runs of the second half.  Maybe he has found the secret to success late in his baseball life.  Snooze through the spring months and then wake up around about June, heh.

Here's his May-June-July advances stats for the past two calendar years. You'll see some things that look remarkably the same, but his LOB is almost 15% higher. The BABIP is the lowest of his most recent seasons during that timespan, as well, though he worked a below-average one for most of last year with success. For what it's worth, he's been getting hit hard less during this span than in previous years and his HR/FB is slightly higher than previous seasons. 

Probably not very worthy analysis, as I'm not sure how much you could realistically draw from this sample, but.... maybe he can keep it up?

I'm struggling to keep him, but have higher-ceiling players crowding my roster. Had to cut a guy having a similar year performance-wise recently in Fiers and really hated to do it. These types of players can hold your staff together, especially during years like this where pitching is so volatile.

Screen Shot 07-06-2019 at 10.37.34 PM.png

Link to post
Share on other sites

For what it's worth, his ERA during the 2017 stretch posted there was 5.91, while this year's version has been 2.26.

I think he's clearly pitching over his underlying stats, and will most likely– and regretfully– release him to the streaming wire soon. There's something to it, though... so... change my mind, please? 

If you could consolidate your staff to include a couple truly-trustworthy aces, this dude and others like him would probably be golden for matchups and QS-padding in a H2H league.

Edited by Macgregor
Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I don’t count on any SP to keep up a 2.17 era and 0.97 whip and win 5 games every 7 starts. That’s what I was specifically referring to. 

K. He had a 2.83 ERA last year. So...

 

7 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

For what it's worth, his ERA during the 2017 stretch posted there was 5.91, while this year's version has been 2.26.

I think he's clearly pitching over his underlying stats, and will most likely– and regretfully– release him to the streaming wire soon. 

If you could consolidate your staff to include a couple truly-trustworthy aces, this dude and others like him would probably be golden for matchups and QS-padding in a H2H league.

He's a different pitcher then he was in 2017. When he has the cutter and change both working. He has been very hard to hit. His change up was not effective pre-DL and he didn't have his cutter in 2017. He throws his BP fastball less then 40% these days. He's been fully committed to pitching backwards since 2018.

He's not going to pitch at a cy young level, but don't see why he can't be useful ROS.

Edited by Slatykamora
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't mention the 2017 ERA to try to assess who he is today, I mentioned it to show how little the underlying stats can sometimes reflect the actual outcome of the pitching. His FIP and xFIP were both the lowest of the three timespans there, yet he was remarkably more productive in the later two. 

In other words: perhaps he'll be great and these numbers can't tell us anything.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Macgregor said:

I didn't mention the 2017 ERA to try to assess who he is today, I mentioned it to show how little the underlying stats can sometimes reflect the actual outcome of the pitching. His FIP and xFIP were both the lowest of the three timespans there, yet he was remarkably more productive in the later two. 

In other words: perhaps he'll be great and these numbers can't tell us anything.

Or you can watch him pitch. His change up is a great weak contact weapon. He will beat his FIP when it's working and he's keeping mixed well with the cutter and fastball.

He had one the lowest exit velocities against last year. Things could happen for sure, pitchers are fickle. After all, could lose the feel for something. Get hurt again, etc etc.

Edited by Slatykamora
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

K. He had a 2.83 ERA last year. So...

 

He's a different pitcher then he was in 2017. When he has the cutter and change both working. He has been very hard to hit. His change up was not effective pre-DL and he didn't have his cutter in 2017. He throws his BP fastball less then 40% these days. He's been fully committed to pitching backwards since 2018.

He's not going to pitch at a cy young level, but don't see why he can't be useful ROS.

 

K. And 2.83 is significantly higher than 2.17. So...

I didn’t say he can’t be a 2.83 pitcher, but are you going to say there isn’t a difference in a 2.83 era and a 2.17 era? I’m not counting on a low 2s era from him. You said yourself he won’t pitch at a CY level ROS. I’ve said nowhere that he won’t be useful. I’ve simply stated that I’m not counting on CY level pitching the rest of the way. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

K. And 2.83 is significantly higher than 2.17. So...

I didn’t say he can’t be a 2.83 pitcher, but are you going to say there isn’t a difference in a 2.83 era and a 2.17 era? I’m not counting on a low 2s era from him. You said yourself he won’t pitch at a CY level ROS. I’ve said nowhere that he won’t be useful. I’ve simply stated that I’m not counting on CY level pitching the rest of the way. 

I mean, relative to this re juiced ball era. Anyone with a sub 3 ERA is ++ in that category. Your statement may have technical right to it, but not a single person in this thread thinks he can keep up specifically a 2.17 ERA. So not sure why it needed to be said.

People in this thread are interested if he is going either massively regress, majorly regress or he can keep up a very solid pace.

Edited by Slatykamora
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

I mean, relative to this re juiced ball era. Anyone with a sub 3 ERA is ++ in that category. Your statement may have technical right to it, but not a single person in this thread thinks he can keep up specifically a 2.17 ERA. So not sure why it needed to be said.

People in this thread are interested if he is going either massively regress, majorly regress or he can keep up a very solid pace.

 

I said it for the same reason you stated that you don’t think he’ll keep up a CY pace...we expect regression and believe it will come, whether it’s a massive regression or a slight course-correction. Not a single person itt expects him to keep pitching at a CY level, and yet you felt the need to post that. So what is the difference here? Truth is, there is no difference. My statement implies that I expect regression from his last seven starts. Yours does the same.

And I know what people itt are interested in. I’ve been around long enough to figure that out. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
13 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Anyone running him out there tonight?

as good as he has been, very tough matchup tonight for sure

That's the plan, not every match-up will be a walk in the park.

Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Anyone running him out there tonight?

as good as he has been, very tough matchup tonight for sure

 

I am. He’s had the Braves twice in the past month and been solid. I’m trusting him until he gives me reasons not to.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...