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Dante Pettis 2019 Outlook


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Oh I was right with you at the time of that quote (Aug 3rd) and overall I agree with what you are saying. But if you read my whole post you will see that three days later he was even relegated to seco

Yes. The clip when Deebo told Pettis in the off-season who's the #1 WR in SF now:  

How are Pettis and a pass to Pettis alike? Both are drops.

If you liked Pettis before this should probably help you get him for cheaper based on pre-season nonsense. 

The reality is that Deebo and Hurd are unproven rookies and even the best rookie WRs struggle year 1. There is also no Trent Taylor so even if a guy like Hurd emerges he will likely be used in the slot. 

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On 8/10/2019 at 7:51 AM, ThunderDan said:

I'm with you.  Feels like the "experts" are all over this guy which had me interested earlier in the draft process (because I'm a sheep apparently, baaa).  But the more I think about it/hear about it, I think I'm out.  The training camp reports are alarming, as is how small he is.  And I get that he "has done it on the field".  But so did Robert Foster.  Why is one creeping up towards the 6th round while the other is undrafted.  It's a rhetorical question, don't yell at me, I know why.  But it's meant to demonstrate that we shouldn't overvalue a couple games for an out of contention team last season versus everything we're hearing in training camp.  Starting to think it's just going to be Kittle and the RBs.  Sure, Pettis will have some booms, but don't think he's going to be anything close to reliable and ultimately not worth his current ADP.

 

I'm not necessarily in disagreement with your overall point here, but Pettis isn't small. He's 6'1", 195. 

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It will be interesting to see if this negative press starts to push his ADP backwards again.  FFC is still showing him going around pick 70, but his ADP graphs have just began to tail off.  But I'm afraid that all of the buzz and 'sleeper' lists have already pumped Pettis up too high in drafts, and it'll be hard to deflate him now.

If he drops back into that 100-120 pick range then I can see potential for value there, I just doubt he moves back that far now.  Reports so far seem to be even more down on Goodwin, and Taylor is hurt.  So basically you would seem to have Pettis and Deebo starting on the outside, and Hurd as the slot guy.  Depending how he plays, that could leave Pettis anywhere from Garoppolo's #2 target (behind Kittle) down to his 4th or 5th target.  There's certainly room and time for Pettis to establish himself there, but not at pick 70 when you have a lot of solidly established players to choose from.

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On 8/12/2019 at 1:31 PM, handyandy86 said:

It will be interesting to see if this negative press starts to push his ADP backwards again.  FFC is still showing him going around pick 70, but his ADP graphs have just began to tail off.  But I'm afraid that all of the buzz and 'sleeper' lists have already pumped Pettis up too high in drafts, and it'll be hard to deflate him now.

If he drops back into that 100-120 pick range then I can see potential for value there, I just doubt he moves back that far now.  Reports so far seem to be even more down on Goodwin, and Taylor is hurt.  So basically you would seem to have Pettis and Deebo starting on the outside, and Hurd as the slot guy.  Depending how he plays, that could leave Pettis anywhere from Garoppolo's #2 target (behind Kittle) down to his 4th or 5th target.  There's certainly room and time for Pettis to establish himself there, but not at pick 70 when you have a lot of solidly established players to choose from.

He has fallen to the 14th (163) in a 12 team standard 2qb

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On 8/12/2019 at 1:31 PM, handyandy86 said:

It will be interesting to see if this negative press starts to push his ADP backwards again.  FFC is still showing him going around pick 70, but his ADP graphs have just began to tail off.  But I'm afraid that all of the buzz and 'sleeper' lists have already pumped Pettis up too high in drafts, and it'll be hard to deflate him now.

If he drops back into that 100-120 pick range then I can see potential for value there, I just doubt he moves back that far now.  Reports so far seem to be even more down on Goodwin, and Taylor is hurt.  So basically you would seem to have Pettis and Deebo starting on the outside, and Hurd as the slot guy.  Depending how he plays, that could leave Pettis anywhere from Garoppolo's #2 target (behind Kittle) down to his 4th or 5th target.  There's certainly room and time for Pettis to establish himself there, but not at pick 70 when you have a lot of solidly established players to choose from.

Where is marquese Goodwin? 

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I think Pettis is their best overall receiver, but unless he slides a bit with the compete for a job comments above, I think the better draft day value is Goodwin.  The problem with SF is while we know they are likely going to be throwing a lot, we have no which WR's are going to get thrown too.   I'm not confident enough in any of them so I'll take the best value come draft time and hope it works out.

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Draft capital investments and physical traits are what reassure me about Dante Pettis this year. In the range he is being drafted, his small sample size at the end of last year showed enough to take a chance on him this year. In this inexperienced and banged up receiving core, (Trent Taylor and Jalen Hurd) Pettis shines through with the most experience aside from Marquise Goodwin and has the most draft capital spent on him after being traded up for to be selected in the second round. 

Five bucks on Venmo to whoever can tell me the last time Marquise Goodwin started 10 games. Deebo Samuel will have to beat the odds to reach 1,000 yards in his rookie year. Jalen Hurd was drafted as a TE/ WR hybrid who after a 2 TD preseason preformance has become a likely reach in deeper drafts. Forgive me for neglecting Jordan Matthews but he can be summed up in one word. Depth. With Nick Mullens level qb play Pettis should be useful from volume and run after catch ability as an NCAA record holding return man. If Garrapolo can play anything like a $100 million dollar quarterback he can be a near league winner as the Niners #1 WR. Shanahan motivational ploy or not, he a starter at receiver and those who disagree I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

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On 8/12/2019 at 9:15 AM, PlayTheWaivers said:

I’m never happy when a coach has to come out with a "motivating" quote for a young player. There's all the reason in the world for him to be motivated, especially when they took 2 more WRS in the top 3 rounds. I can see Pettis being a Djax lite type of player. Good wr3 option when paired with high floor WRS

Except for the fact DJax and Pettis are completely different players? DJax is essentially a one trick pony who beats people with his speed. Pettis is a route running tactician who beats people with high end route running.   

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Below, yesterday Shanahan was quoted saying:

Quote

"He’s a guy that’s capable of having any role on this team. He can be our best player on this team. He can be our best punt returner. He can be our No. 1 receiver, our No. 2 receiver, our slot receiver, or just a role receiver. He has the ability to do all of that. And he’s shown that he can do all of that, but he hasn’t shown it consistently enough... I am the hardest on people that I believe in. And I do believe in him a lot." https://www.sfchronicle.com/49ers/article/49ers-Shanahan-on-Pettis-I-am-the-hardest-14383129.php

 

I'm with those who bought into Pettis' upside, took him in the 8th RD in two of three leagues. The above comment suggests that the concern is overstated, his offseason regiment was what we'd expect from a dialed professional, knowing he needed to get bigger & stronger. Still, let guys like Bourne, Kittle & Coleman handle the high traffic zones. Run this guy open & great things will happen!  
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25 minutes ago, markrc99 said:

Below, yesterday Shanahan was quoted saying:

 

I'm with those who bought into Pettis' upside, took him in the 8th RD in two of three leagues. The above comment suggests that the concern is overstated, his offseason regiment was what we'd expect from a dialed professional, knowing he needed to get bigger & stronger. Still, let guys like Bourne, Kittle & Coleman handle the high traffic zones. Run this guy open & great things will happen!  

Yep, I always took Shanahan's comments as a challenge to Pettis to step up and be the player we all think he can be opposed to the narrative that Pettis was bad and Shanahan was going to bench him. 

The fact that Pettis has come out and publicly agreed with with Shanahan's comments is even more telling to me that it was strictly motivation for a young player.

I still think Pettis finishes as a top 24 receiver this year.

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From all accounts, just seems like Garoppolo spreads the ball around too much for any of these WRs to be dependable. Not saying one couldn't emerge, but there is a high possibility IMO that the group of Pettis/Hurd/Deebo/Goodwin all basically end between 400 and 700 yards. Add in Kittle and the RBs (a lot of targets should come out of the backfield) and you're basically at 4,000 yards.

Double digit rounds, I'd probably feel most comfortable with Samuel TBH. I like his playstyle over the middle of the field for an OC who wants to spread the offense and pickup chunk yardage. Same reason I like Coleman earlier than most. Take your pick but I'm not touching any in single digit rounds.

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I snagged a share of him in Round 11 last night.  12 team redraft .5 PPR.  Pettis is your prototypical lotto ticket.  Has the talent & measurables that fit, a clear path to playing time, a good situation where there should be a lot of passing, and a later round price tag.  If he duds a few weeks into the season you can easily dump him with little investment cost lost.

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My draft just completed for this season and I'm on this. When Coach says he can be the best player on the team, he isn't kidding. His release against man coverage is above average, he's fluid in his breaks and cuts, and he's the most stable WR in a very QB friendly offense, happy to have him in the fold. 

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Loved getting him at a 2-3 round discount because of Shanahan's Shanahanigans. Gotta love a little tough love from the coach. Hopefully he can avoid the sophomore slump and capitalize on this opportunity. Also hoping for a good year from Garoppolo. 

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