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Luis Severino 2019 Outlook


The 7th Beatles
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42 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Agreed, unless the entire room gets completely scared away. I could see a scenario where if your draft is tonight that he drops crazy and maybe you get him at sever discount.

 

how crazy? 10th round?

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10 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

how crazy? 10th round?

 

Further. I'd bite if he was there in the 12th.

Could be had cheaper in an auction I'd suspect. If he's nominated early will people really bite on him for more than $8-10?

Edited by Sidearmer
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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

better or worse situation than Kershaw? fantasy wise for those drafting

Based on where they are today, Kershaw can play catch and Sev can't throw so by default it is worse than Kershaw. Neither are good though. 

If he felt the shoulder on 1 throw than I would be very, very concerned. If he couldn't get loose and scratched himself that is a little more promising. In general, there are so many promising, upside arms that I would rather draft a healthy player than risk it on Sev until the price gets REALLY discounted. But 2 weeks off and re-evaluate is pretty standard. Either way, I am not overly interested and since the Yanks got Paxton I am sure they are fine being more patient. 

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Agreed, unless the entire room gets completely scared away. I could see a scenario where if your draft is tonight that he drops crazy and maybe you get him at sever discount.

Him and Kershaw make for fascinating games of chicken in snake drafts

 

range of 50-120

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Severino's Auction value was updated on Yahoo. He used to be averaging at $26.00 where I was not touching, but now he is at a reasonable projected value of $14. Decent room here for profit. 

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Just did the Nfbc adp for the last two days and they still have him at 36. Even championship adp rankings are useless this year. I would only draft in the 100s

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Every season there are half a dozen injury discounted players and risk aversion eliminates any chance for profit. Once the nature of the injury is known its a nice profit point. Buy Severino at the $14 price point post him to DL, add $1 pitcher flyer like Touki, Woodruff, German, etc. Few players have Severino's upside.

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9 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

Every season there are half a dozen injury discounted players and risk aversion eliminates any chance for profit. Once the nature of the injury is known its a nice profit point. Buy Severino at the $14 price point post him to DL, add $1 pitcher flyer like Touki, Woodruff, German, etc. Few players have Severino's upside.

Yup, especially great in shallow leagues were the early roster spot is critically important to pick up a guy. Also, great discount for H2H leagues were the early part of the year doesn't really matter and what matters is the playoffs at the end. 

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Given he is Jekyl and Hyde when healthy, the risk is now enormous with Severino imo.  When will he be healthy? How mush will this linger?  Will he be the first half 2018 pitcher or the 2018 second half loser?  Let someone else worry about it unless he falls ridiculously low imo (which he likely will not as long as they predict a late April return).

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2 hours ago, B&F said:

After his injury was announced what round is he being drafted?  Trying to get a sense where I should take a chance with him.

I drafted a couple of nights ago in a pretty steep buy in league and he went 48th overall. In 12 team NFBC drafts his ADP over the past 3 days worth of drafts is 58. This is nowhere near enough of a discount to get me to even think about it. This would be a reasonable discount if for some reason he was suspended the first 30 days of the season. But this is something completely different. He had shoulder inflammation in his shoulder which sounds rather benign, but really the inflammation is an end result of something else. It could be that he strained something or pinched something in his rotator cuff that wasn't detected on the MRI. Shoulder inflammation in pitchers is often the result of some biomechanical issues in the shoulder/scapular region. Who knows if or when it might reappear when he starts ramping up his activities? We also don't know how it'll respond when he's 50 innings into the season and he's starting to get some fatigue. Also, was his poor performance the 2nd half of last season a warning sign of the biomechanical issues? When he gets back will he start making some subtle changes to his delivery to alleviate stress on his shoulder? Too many questions for me. I strongly recommend let someone else in your league take that gamble.

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I was considering him in the 60's until I was reminded about Zach Davies and his "shoulder inflammation" diagnosis last year.  He missed almost the entire season and pitched poorly upon his return.  Now, no 2 injuries are the same, but it gave me a little pause as it made me aware that even something we're told is nothing major, can absolutely be major.  Where Sev is so young, and so critical to the Yankees future, I believe they will baby this and be as careful with him as possible.  As a fan I hope they will.  I don't draft for 2 weeks so I'm waiting to make up my mind on him. 

Edited by dicka24
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6 hours ago, B&F said:

After his injury was announced what round is he being drafted?  Trying to get a sense where I should take a chance with him.

 

He went #33 on Tuesday night in a public head to head points league. Too rich for my blood.

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On 3/8/2019 at 6:23 PM, drunkb said:

 

He went #33 on Tuesday night in a public head to head points league. Too rich for my blood.

That's insane. Did the guy not know about the injury?   I was hesitant to take him before the injury, now he's basically have to fall in my lap for me to take him.

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