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Mitch Garver 2019 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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8 minutes ago, Mongeese said:

Looks like some DH ABs just opened up.

Would be classic Twins to give these at bats to Adrianza or someone else, but as a Garver owner, really hoping he just stays at Dh while Cruz is out and plays everyday. He's earned it for sure.

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51 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Not even close

I'm a very happy Garver owner and in first place so can't complain, but he has been no better than guys like Tom Murphy, Danny Jansen, Yan Gomes lately. Do you think the Twins will magically decide to play the guy more often? They've had a clear plan that he will sit frequently, more than other starting catchers, and his production has dropped off. Just curious what your reasoning is to so firmly hold.

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1 hour ago, jvfantasy said:

I'm a very happy Garver owner and in first place so can't complain, but he has been no better than guys like Tom Murphy, Danny Jansen, Yan Gomes lately. Do you think the Twins will magically decide to play the guy more often? They've had a clear plan that he will sit frequently, more than other starting catchers, and his production has dropped off. Just curious what your reasoning is to so firmly hold.

 

Yes. As soon as Astudillo is back (September 1st or sooner), they will have three catchers on the roster and not worried about having two in the lineup. Hold. 

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this guy is annoying to own. It’s not his fault, but he just doesn’t play enough. Tempted to drop. Fact is, he is droppable for some people. He has been on the wire in a couple of my 12 team leagues multiple times, including as recently as about a little over a week ago.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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The best argument for playing Mitch Garver more...Look at the numbers and compare them with Yordan Alvarez. Almost identical in just about every way. At worst Garver is a poor man’s Yordan. They essentially have Yordan at catcher and yet choose to play him about half of their catcher AB’s. There is no backup catcher in MLB - and not many starting catchers that should warrant benching this guy other than normal rest. 

 

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He’s officially played 81 games, so half a season. Double his numbers (I know it’s not that easy, but for fun):

.275/120 runs/56 HR/122 RBI

His 156 wRC+ is 7th in MLB (minimum 300 PAs). 

He’s a catcher, so would never play a full 162, but he could’ve/should’ve gotten to 40 HR/100/100 with more consistent playing time. 

Imagine sitting this type of production consistently because of catcher defensive metrics (which are questionable at best) for Jason Castro, who BARELY measures out as more valuable defensively anyway. 

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Castro has not been a disaster as a hitter. In 70 games he's OPSing .777 with 12 Hrs. These numbers are well above average for a MLB catcher. It's also very possible that Garver has been so effective because he is so frequently working. I play in daily leagues and own both Garver and Castro in a couple. Catcher production has been awesome in those leagues.

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He also missed about 3 weeks with a high ankle sprain.  Give him another 10 games there and he's up to 90 games or so.  Another 10 starts the rest of the year, and he would be at 100.  That's not that far off from most catchers.  Any more than that and it's possible he'd wear down and not be as effective when he is playing.

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The other thing that hurts him some, is he's a guarantee to play against a lefty.  The AL Central has very few of those.  Indians don't have one, White Sox use mostly RHP, Tigers have Boyd, Royals have Duffy.  Otherwise the starters are almost exclusive right.

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50 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

The other thing that hurts him some, is he's a guarantee to play against a lefty.  The AL Central has very few of those.  Indians don't have one, White Sox use mostly RHP, Tigers have Boyd, Royals have Duffy.  Otherwise the starters are almost exclusive right.

Right. Because Garver is crazy v. LHP. But he’s also a stud v. RHP. Pan mentioned Castro’s .777 OPS, above average for a catcher. Garver has a .899 OPS v. RHP (and 1.181 v. LHP!). Garver should be playing 4-5 times per week. There’s really no justification otherwise.  

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3 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Right. Because Garver is crazy v. LHP. But he’s also a stud v. RHP. Pan mentioned Castro’s .777 OPS, above average for a catcher. Garver has a .899 OPS v. RHP (and 1.181 v. LHP!). Garver should be playing 4-5 times per week. There’s really no justification otherwise.  

Castro is at .858 versus RHP..so not that crazy a difference.  Add in that Castro is a better defensive catcher..and sitting often keeps Garver rested. 

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