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Miles Mikolas 2019 Outlook


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Mikolas had an excellent year coming back from Japan. In 200 IP, he went 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The big blemish is the strikeouts, where he checked in with only 146 (good for a measly 6.5 K/9). In H2H leagues I will be all over Mikolas, where I'm pretty confident he will once again be elite in 3 categories and the lack of strikeouts don't kill you. However, in roto leagues with strict innings limits, I'm not sure you can stomach his lack of strikeouts. Its almost like the equivalent of a hitter with 30 HR, 80 RBI and 80 R, but hits .200. Right now where he is being priced it completely ignores the lack of strikeouts. Is there anything to suggest in his peripherals that he can increase his strikeout rate? Otherwise, he is probably my biggest avoid guy in roto leagues this year. Its a shame because I personally love him as a real life pitcher and fully believe his ERA and WHIP are real, as I'm sure many others do too.

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Indeed he did (hit 97)...I am new to following/charting him, and did not realize he was capable of this sort of velo? Here's a look at the stuff last night: FB- sat 94.5 MPH, very nice verti

This guy reminds me of Michael Fulmer a few years ago. K/9 not ever gonna be high enough for me to want to own him in a league where there’s an innings limit. Y’all can keep taking him around pick 100

Coming to the early conclusion that St Louis plays much better at home than on the road. Check this out, they are 13-4 at home vs 8-10 on the road. (Philly kind of the same, 14-7 vs 5-8). Will keep th

7 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Is there anything to suggest in his peripherals that he can increase his strikeout rate?

Nick Pollack thinks so:

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23. Miles Mikolas (St. Louis Cardinals) You know what’s weird about Mikolas? I expect him to have a completely opposite season in 2019. 2.83 ERA? Eh, more like 3.30 ERA. 18% K rate? Nah, I’m thinking 23%. 1.07 WHIP? Yeah OK, maybe 1.10-1.15 but still great. Why would I think all of this? Pretty simply, I think his stuff just didn’t match the peripherals. That slider is incredibly dope, and if he pulls back on its zone rate slightly from 50% to 40-45%, its 14.5% swinging-strike rate could climb from sub 15% to 18%-plus and turn Mikolas into a legit strikeout arm. Meanwhile, his heater touched 98 mph last season, sitting just above 94 mph regularly. Add in a curveball that he comfortably throws for strikes and held batters to a .234 average last year, and you have the recipe for a low WHIP (thanks low walk rate!) and a pitcher who should easily push a 20% K rate and hint at the 25% mark. Keep in mind as well, I’m expecting close to 200 frames, making Mikolas a strong arm across the board, failing to hurt you anywhere. He’s not ranked higher given that I’m banking on a bolstered strikeout rate to nullify some of the expected ERA/WHIP regression, but I bet I’m ranking him higher than most because few are considering how his stuff should translate to more swings and misses. Let’s see what happens.

 

The key phrase here to me is "if he pulls back on its zone rate".  Mikolas seems like one of those guys that's always going to be around the plate because he trusts himself to put it in the perfect spot -- and usually does.  If he's getting the results in terms of run prevention and not walking anyone, I don't know that he'll change just to get a few more Ks.

Whether he adds strikeouts or not, I'm fine with his ~100-ish ADP.  It's not a bargain, but I don't think it's bad, either.  You do have to make sure you find your Ks elsewhere if you take him, but by the time he's getting ready to go off the board, you'll already know if you've got surplus Ks from the other pitcher(s) you drafted.  If you've got one 11+ K/9 ace and can find some 9+ K/9 SP4/5 types, you'll get all the Ks you need even if he goes < 7 K/9 this season.

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He finished 36th among qualifies starters in SwStr% last year. His K% however was only ranked 50th out of 56 eligible starters. 

 

This suggests that he could have some growth in Ks. His Pitching Values on his slider last season only trailed Corbin and Chacin. It's a legit, put-away pitch that gets a high number of whiffs

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12 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

He finished 36th among qualifies starters in SwStr% last year. His K% however was only ranked 50th out of 56 eligible starters. 

 

This suggests that he could have some growth in Ks. His Pitching Values on his slider last season only trailed Corbin and Chacin. It's a legit, put-away pitch that gets a high number of whiffs

 

56 eligible starters? That seems low, what is the eligibility? 

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3 hours ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

 

Not sure how MLB decides the cutoff for SP eligibility. But there were only 56 eligible SPs last year.

 

Ivan Nova is ranked last in innings at 161.0 among that list 

 

i think they use 1 IP per game played by their MLB team to qualify

 

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He reminds me of Hiorki Kuroda.  Kuroda had the stuff to get more strikeouts if he wanted to(SwStr consistently around 10%). Never did and he was remarkably consistent no matter what environment he pitched in.

Miles throws harder and he is a slider/curve, not a splitter/slider guy Kuroda was. Yet the approach to pitching is the same. So id expect the ERA to be lower due to more velo/not having to pitch in yankee stadium.

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  • 3 weeks later...

This guy reminds me of Michael Fulmer a few years ago. K/9 not ever gonna be high enough for me to want to own him in a league where there’s an innings limit. Y’all can keep taking him around pick 100 all you’d like but for me he’s a hard pass.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I'm assuming everyone is starting with confidence?  I didn't draft him to sit but he wasn't good in his first start, nor this spring.  Anyone with any insight know what's been up with him?

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13 hours ago, Zeezee said:

Just seems to not be hitting his spots exactly where he wants to. When he takes some heat off the fastball to spot it where it needs to be he's getting hit a lot so far.

Command just not quite there right now, had a little bit of bad luck in that one that got through right side under Goldy didnt seem like a hard hit but just well placed with 2 down and runner in scoring position.  I own him way on the cheap took him more on performance and also what some respected folks were saying about potential K growth, but having a little bit of buyers remorse.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

Strangely silent on this guy.  Maybe because of all the other pitchers blowing up?  I see Miles still ranked #32 overall at Pitcherlist.  Anybody watching him with some insight as to whether he is suffering bad luck, having trouble locating pitches, lost movement or speed on his pitches, etc.?  

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I'd venture more prominent blow-ups are hiding his rough start away a bit.  I don't think many were expecting 18 wins or a 2.83 ERA again, but there was a hope he would miss more bats and keep your ratios clean.  I don't see anything to do other than hold; good team and if he regresses to a Kyle Hendricks level, that has value.

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1 hour ago, AHF said:

Strangely silent on this guy.  Maybe because of all the other pitchers blowing up?  I see Miles still ranked #32 overall at Pitcherlist.  Anybody watching him with some insight as to whether he is suffering bad luck, having trouble locating pitches, lost movement or speed on his pitches, etc.?  

I own him, biggest issue has been command, has not really been able to command offspeed stuff and as a result has gotten rocked at times gave up 3HR including one to the pitcher vs the Brewers on opening Day, vs the Pirates guys like Adam Frazier had 3 hits.  

 

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You guys chalking this year up to a slow start and still trying to find his command, or you expecting a significant dropp off from last year ?

 

A lot of pitchers have started poorly this year. I also don't expect a carbon copy repeat of last year, but the lack of ks really stings when he's pitching like he has. He's hard to figure out if he'll end up a 3ish ERA guy or much higher. I don't expect a jump in Ks from last year but would hope he regains his stinginess.

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On 4/18/2019 at 4:05 AM, tonywow said:

You guys chalking this year up to a slow start and still trying to find his command, or you expecting a significant dropp off from last year ?

 

A lot of pitchers have started poorly this year. I also don't expect a carbon copy repeat of last year, but the lack of ks really stings when he's pitching like he has. He's hard to figure out if he'll end up a 3ish ERA guy or much higher. I don't expect a jump in Ks from last year but would hope he regains his stinginess.

That was the thing a lot of the chatter from guys like Sporer and Pollock thought his K's were gonna rise, probably that ratios would come to more "normal" levels, but that with some of his numbers that he was a likely candidate to see K's rise, obviously that has not really happened.  I will continue to monitor and in some leagues where I have reserves and not many appealing options on waivers I will hold and see. 

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What a nice start and against a very good lineup. Hoping he's finding his rythm and is ready to get the QS train rolling.

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