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Andrew Heaney 2019 Outlook


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Figured I'd start a new thread for Heaney's 2019 season. Finished at 9-10, 4.15 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 3.68 xFIP.

Strikeouts and walks were pretty good at 9.00 and 2.25 but he was hurt by a 1.35 HR/9.

His 4.15 ERA is not that great but his xFIP ranked 20th out of 57 qualified starters. Ahead of Luis Castillo (21st), behind Miles Mikolas (19th).

Al Melchior posted the following on Rotographs:

Quote

Andrew Heaney (My rank: 32, FantasyPros ECR: 44, FantasyPros ADP: 45)

Once the top 30 starters have been drafted, how many pitchers can you find with the potential for 180 innings, a strikeout per inning and plentiful run support? Cole Hamels and Masahiro Tanaka would be among your top options, though both are home run and ERA risks, and Tanaka may not even reach 180 innings. The same could be said of Heaney, but he belongs in this discussion — and in their ADP neighborhood.

I do run the risk of putting too much stock in Heaney’s 2018 season, which was his first full year in the majors. I just don’t perceive that his relative lack of track record makes him any riskier than other pitchers I would be looking at outside of my top 30. Especially if I can draft two reliable high-end starters to lead my rotation, I don’t mind having Heaney as my SP3. Given where he is being drafted, it’s more likely that he would be my SP4, and I would be thrilled about having him as my fourth-best starter.

 

Heaney is a former 1st round pick (9th overall in 2012). 2018 was his first full season at age 27. Expecting a decent ERA (3.6 - 3.8) with 10+ wins and a good amount of strikeouts this year.

Thoughts on Heaney this season?

Edited by buster444
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Threw 4.1 scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in his Triple A game today.  Was limited to 73 pitches. 

Well, that'll work: 5IP 2H (both HRs to good hitters) 2ER 1BB 8K Chart looks like he's basically back to last years goodness: FB (sinker) sat 93MPH and touched 96, pitch was darting and divi

Another beaut of a start, even if an elevated pitch count (and no offense) prevented the W. FA- sat 93 MPH and topped at 96, usual incredible double plus movement and great command, tossed 57--38

If the season had ended at end of July/early August he would have had a thread by now. He predictably lost some steam the last couple months (he'd never pitched more than 105 innings in a season) although he did have a couple solid outings the last couple months on his way to 180 IP.  

In a 12-team league his K-upside (0.9 K/IP career) makes him a legit SP4-5. He's not going to get a lot of wins (only 9 last year in 30 starts) but he showed well in his first legit shot last year with decent (non-damaging) ratios to go w/those Ks.

Considering his age, it's an open question whether we've seen the best of him. He could be a late-bloomer - in which case he's a massive value - he's going 15th-16th round in 12-team mocks. 

 

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Fantastic changeup, gets a ton of swing and misses.  Like a lot of lefties when you got an average to below average fastball your upside is pretty capped.  There’s some minor hope for a small step forward but he’s probably a high 3 guy at best.  Which is a solid back end fantasy starter with nice Ks, solid whip and what should be decent win total with improved bullpen.

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11 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Heaney is one of the boring late options that has a pretty good shot to do well. with just a little better luck in the ERA department he'd become an SP3-4 rather than the SP5-6 he's being drafted as.

 

agree with this.  im taking him at 5 or 6 sp and i think he can be an SP3

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FantasyPros has him rated as the #44 SP overall. In 16 team leagues this currently puts him at SP3. However, since he doesn't have a "big name value" he's probably being drafted a bit later. He's not glamorous, but he's a solid pitcher and if you pass him up you could do much worse.

 

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not the most durable SP and very risky where he's going

2016 - missed the entire season

2017- pitched 49 innings between MLB (21) and minors (28)

2018 - full season of 180 innings

do you feel lucky

 

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33 minutes ago, jb_power said:

not the most durable SP and very risky where he's going

2016 - missed the entire season

2017- pitched 49 innings between MLB (21) and minors (28)

2018 - full season of 180 innings

do you feel lucky

 

His ADP is ~165 on NFBC, so not really a risk. However, your point about the injury trouble is true.

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He was pretty much healthy for the first time in forever last year.  He was a good prospect coming up, and I like his strikeout ability and low walks.  Good recipe for fantasy success.  The problem I have with him is his health history, and the fact that he threw a lot of innings after having thrown next to nothing for so long.  Will he stay healthy, and will his arm show some regress due to fatigue?  If you draft Heaney, as I will try to at the right price, just make sure you don't load up on too many risky starters.  I like the stuff, health aside.

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Heaney with sore elbow today. No MRI scheduled so may not be anything, but always worried when pitchers have discomfort in elbow or shoulder. He was excellent last year and I think he is due to tick up even more this year. He's a key component of my pitching staff this year so don't want to lose him for any length of time. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

He had the exact same issue with his elbow last ST and missed the first few weeks of the season and bounced back excellently.

It's naive to expect the identical scenario, but at least he will come at a bargain rate again and have a chance for a large profit.

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16 minutes ago, svdude said:

Has breakout potential and am still looking to target him.  Where have others seeing him going in recent drafts?

Target Skaggs instead. More upside in my opinion and is going later in drafts. Skaggs had an ERA in the 2s before he tried to pitch through injuries last year. And he’s healthy right now ( for the time being). I’m an Angel fan, if that’s worth anything.

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2 hours ago, svdude said:

Has breakout potential and am still looking to target him.  Where have others seeing him going in recent drafts?

 

He's definitely dropping with the elbow scare.  Was 164 avg in nfbc before 3/1; 212 avg after.  If he is fine and just has the same thing he had last year, good value now. I have him in two leagues, so rooting for it to be nothing, but if I was drafting now I'd probably wait until the 200s before taking on that risk.  By that point you are talking about guys you have a high percentage of dropping at some point anyway, so if you like him, probably worth it.  

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It is a bit odd how he felt renewed soreness (after some rest) prompting 'concern' and then went to a doctor and now we have not heard a peep.

All this feels ominous, maybe I am being to pessimistic here but my one share of Heaney is likely to go buh-bye pretty soon too.

Edited by ST. STEVEN
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1 hour ago, Donniebaseball23 said:

Anybody holding on to him

his press conference thing was extremely depressing 

 

What happened in the press conference?

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  • 4 weeks later...
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Heaney (elbow) will face hitters Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.

Analysis

Heaney has been battling an elbow issue since early March. His expected return date remains unclear, but the length of his absence means he'll likely need a few rehab outings before returning to the roster.

 

 

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