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Zack Greinke 2019 Outlook


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Not sure if this guy is undervalued or a Do-not-Draft candidate.

Had pretty damn good stats last year, but the Diamondbacks are in complete SELL mode and their team is looking B-A-D. 

He's going for about $20 in Auctions on Yahoo.

Good get or pass? 

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10 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Not sure if this guy is undervalued or a Do-not-Draft candidate.

Had pretty damn good stats last year, but the Diamondbacks are in complete SELL mode and their team is looking B-A-D. 

He's going for about $20 in Auctions on Yahoo.

Good get or pass? 

Pass.  Like him but wins will be tough.  Could be toughest division in MLB if Harper lands with SF or SD.  Colorado and LA are very good teams, Padres improved, Giants as is are horrid.  This Diamondbacks lineup is bound to be horrid.  Zack is probably biggest headcase in mlb so being on a really putrid club could make him check out early.  Don’t see any upside in that $20 number.  

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23 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Not sure if this guy is undervalued or a Do-not-Draft candidate.

Had pretty damn good stats last year, but the Diamondbacks are in complete SELL mode and their team is looking B-A-D. 

He's going for about $20 in Auctions on Yahoo.

Good get or pass? 

He's a buy for sure imo if he drops far enough - I do agree with Cmilne above that lack of wins docks him (I play QS). For what it's worth on that point, Y! projects him for 14 wins, which is admittedly modest but it also won't kill you particularly in H2H.

In 12-team (NON-auction) mocks where I simply can't pass up hitting in the top 3 rounds I will take Greinke as my #1 in the 4th-5th (37-60 overall) range. He's been impressive since 2016 when I thought we might be seeing the end coming. He's a worthy #1 if you're content to wait on pitching imo.

 

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2 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

Diamondbacks are in complete SELL mode and their team is looking B-A-D. 

Not sure why this should have much impact on Greinke's value, unless you think the defense behind him is going to be absolutely atrocious or something.

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16 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Not sure why this should have much impact on Greinke's value, unless you think the defense behind him is going to be absolutely atrocious or something.

For wins

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The knock on him being a "headcase" hasn't affected his approach or results during what has basically been a pretty stellar career where he has consistently delivered (200+ IP and 190+ K's in four of the last five years, lifetime 3.21 ERA & 1.08 WHIP).

His velocity has been trending down, to around 89.5 last year, which is my main concern with him especially now that he's 35. He is a savvy pitcher though, so he has compensated for that by working in secondary pitches more effectively. With Greinke, you always get the reliability factor but due to the velo dropping, it feels like there is a bit more risk involved - however, even with that he was just a shade under a 9.0 K/9 last year (207 IP/199 K).

Regarding the shape of the other teams in the NL West, not much has changed with those dynamics other than the Padres adding Machado (the Rockies and Dodgers have had tough line-ups for several years running now and it hasn't negatively impacted Greinke's overall line - he consistently had some of his best games against those two teams last year).

All things considered, I would still consider Greinke a solid option but maybe more of a Top 25-30 pitcher now given the age/velo decline and knocking off a couple of points for the current condition of the D-Backs. I could still see 11-14 wins. We can probably expect him to be a solid SP2 in fantasy, but maybe with a slight decline in the stats (I'm guessing 200 IP / 180 K, slightly higher ERA/WHIP than we're used to).  

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On 2/23/2019 at 11:57 PM, elsegundo said:

The knock on him being a "headcase" hasn't affected his approach or results during what has basically been a pretty stellar career where he has consistently delivered (200+ IP and 190+ K's in four of the last five years, lifetime 3.21 ERA & 1.08 WHIP).

His velocity has been trending down, to around 89.5 last year, which is my main concern with him especially now that he's 35. He is a savvy pitcher though, so he has compensated for that by working in secondary pitches more effectively. With Greinke, you always get the reliability factor but due to the velo dropping, it feels like there is a bit more risk involved - however, even with that he was just a shade under a 9.0 K/9 last year (207 IP/199 K).

Regarding the shape of the other teams in the NL West, not much has changed with those dynamics other than the Padres adding Machado (the Rockies and Dodgers have had tough line-ups for several years running now and it hasn't negatively impacted Greinke's overall line - he consistently had some of his best games against those two teams last year).

All things considered, I would still consider Greinke a solid option but maybe more of a Top 25-30 pitcher now given the age/velo decline and knocking off a couple of points for the current condition of the D-Backs. I could still see 11-14 wins. We can probably expect him to be a solid SP2 in fantasy, but maybe with a slight decline in the stats (I'm guessing 200 IP / 180 K, slightly higher ERA/WHIP than we're used to).  

 

 

I think the boo birds at Dodger stadium is something that makes Greinke better. I think the owners who bail are going to pay big time. Watching him in person this spring, this dude is just good at his craft and I see not one reason why he does not duplicate numbers from last year. Sure the team is worse but wins are such a gamble and guessing game anyway

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Well this is going to KILL me if its serious. Greinke left the game calling for the trainers while he was cruising. Was it arm related? I haven't seen any video. anybody else?

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Well since nobody cares about a top 20 player going down with an injury. lol. I swear this guy is the silent assassin. 200 IP with elite WHIPs and 9 K's per 9 every year and nobody talks about him. I'll report though since I just watched the video. He moved his shoulders around after a pitch as if he had some discomfort in his back. Didn't look to be anything too serious. They pulled him immediately due to the score for sure. Hoping this is nothing worse than maybe missing one start. 

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Yikes. 

Zack Greinke (abdomen) will undergo an MRI on Friday.

Greinke removed himself from the game after experiencing abdominal tightness Wednesday in a win over Pittsburgh. The MRI is ominous though the former Cy Young winner is confident his injury isn't as serious as the oblique strain he suffered back in 2016. That injury sidelined the right-hander for six weeks. With Greinke's health in question, the D'Backs may consider reinserting Zack Godley into their starting rotation. This would be a huge loss for fantasy owners as Greinke has dominated this year aside from a rare slip-up on Opening Day.

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8 minutes ago, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Any thoughts ROS?

top 15 starter?

 

I'd say so, yeah. He has 13/15 QS, so if you play in a league that counts QS he could be even more valuable.

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