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Nicholas Castellanos 2019 Outlook


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Guy is kind of travelling under the radar this season. Going for roughly $14 in auctions. 

Solid .300 hitter with power potential. 

Anything here for profit? Buying in or no?

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“How am I supposed to catch a ball at the wall with all this ivy everywhere?? This is the only stadium that has this stuff!”

😂😂😂  

Do you think Castellanos and Heyward will spend the entirety of the rest of the season waxing nostalgic over when people thought they'd be good, many, many, many moons ago?   Will Schwarber

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I actually like Nick the stick.  Been very durable, outside of one fluke injury last 5 years.  Solid hit tool.  The lack of walks and unideal K’s is kind of a deterrent but he’s shown he can have bad plate discipline and still hit .280+ with an .825+ OPS.  Should run into 25-90 by default even in a horrid lineup by having so many plate appearances.  Not someone to reach for but very solid player.  A trade as someone mentioned above, will likely result in influx of stats.

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On 2/24/2019 at 9:37 PM, Cmilne23 said:

I actually like Nick the stick.  Been very durable, outside of one fluke injury last 5 years.  Solid hit tool.  The lack of walks and unideal K’s is kind of a deterrent but he’s shown he can have bad plate discipline and still hit .280+ with an .825+ OPS.  Should run into 25-90 by default even in a horrid lineup by having so many plate appearances.  Not someone to reach for but very solid player.  A trade as someone mentioned above, will likely result in influx of stats.

 

I noticed the terrible plate discipline and am worried his stats could implode

Outside swing 38.6%

Outside contact 52.5%

Swinging strike 15.8%

The outside contact is especially low considering how often he chases outside, he does crush the ball when he makes contact so that must be keeping the average up. I don't know what to make of this guy, he definitely doesn't seem like a sure thing at all but I guess that is baked into his ADP around 90.

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9 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

I noticed the terrible plate discipline and am worried his stats could implode

Outside swing 38.6%

Outside contact 52.5%

Swinging strike 15.8%

The outside contact is especially low considering how often he chases outside, he does crush the ball when he makes contact so that must be keeping the average up. I don't know what to make of this guy, he definitely doesn't seem like a sure thing at all but I guess that is baked into his ADP around 90.

He’ll have a solid prime.  He’ll fall off a cliff as he gets older though if profile holds up.

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The Greek God of Hard Contact, aptly named that from a past fangraphs article and I love it... his growth in hard contact the last 4 years is a thing of beauty: 33%, 36%, 43%, to last year's incredible 48%... the guy barrels up.

He hits gobs of line drives, 29% last year and consistently 23%-25% the 3 previous years

His HR/FB rate has floated between 13.6% - 14.3% the last 3 seasons... If this takes a step forward you have a 30 HR bat, if not you still have a consistent profile that will give you a good 280+ average and 90 RBI and 20-something HR... He's a good source of reliability/stability as an OF3.

He's entering age 27 so hopefully we see that fully matured power.

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6 hours ago, intothedarkness said:

Anyone wanna tell me what's going on with this guy? I'm being patient but man he continues to suck. 1/5 today and still no homers this year

They showed a stat todat showing him top 3? in MLB hard hit % and his average was only .278 or whatever and fr player with hard hit % greater than x (I forget) their average on those balls were .528

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Seems to be a hit a day keeping the doctor away, but where's the power.

Is Miggy's demise giving him fewer pitches to hit? He's not walking more which slightly concerns me if true. Still strikes out too much for a hitter if he's not showing power, so he needs to get things going quickly.

He should be entering his prime so this slow start is not what I expected from Nick the Stick.

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On 5/9/2019 at 11:10 AM, swfcdan said:

Seems to be a hit a day keeping the doctor away, but where's the power.

Is Miggy's demise giving him fewer pitches to hit? He's not walking more which slightly concerns me if true. Still strikes out too much for a hitter if he's not showing power, so he needs to get things going quickly.

He should be entering his prime so this slow start is not what I expected from Nick the Stick.

He needs to be traded to a decent team.  Tigers were talking about that in the off season too.  If that happens that will probably cure most of his ills immediately.

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8 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

He needs to be traded to a decent team.  Tigers were talking about that in the off season too.  If that happens that will probably cure most of his ills immediately.

This is the only thing that has me holding out hope.

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He was leading the majors in hard hit % in 2018 for the first 2-3 months, while AVG & HR's lagged.  It should even out and he'll be fine.  His defense is terrible, and that will hold back his trade value significantly.  Avila may not even be able to deal him this summer as he tries to hold out for his pricetag.  He's the type of guy who breaks out to a .310 30 110 line one year after moving to a small ballpark, but his true value is held back a ton w/ low BB, poor baserunning and terrible defense at a weak position.

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