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Matt Strahm 2019 Outlook


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ūüé∂¬†Strahming my pain with his fingers.... Stinging my life with his runs.... Killing me softly with his home runs, killing me softly....¬†¬†ūüé∂

Finished up his last start of the spring going 3 ip, 3 hits, 0 er, 0 walks, 6 k's

Mods please lock this thread. Nothing to see here.

After all the hype around this guy, it took until his second start for no one to care?

 

87 PC, 5 INN, 4 HA, 2 BBI, 2 K, ER, 1.800 ERA, 1.200 WHIP

 

Sure the k's weren't there, but it's a solid line and a whole different world compared to the first start.  I'm still invested so wondering if anyone watched the game and has some insight on how he looked.

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I saw some 92-93’s. 

 

He’s kind of a nibbler.Needs to get ahead in counts and get the borderline calls from Blue.  Could be some gems but with some stinkers as well. ERod (inconsistent) type results maybe. 

 

Good bouncback nonetheless. 

Edited by Members_Only_76
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I dropped him for a speculative saves add. 

It’s early so he could still be a good player, but there are generally decent mid-grade starters available on the waiver wire in my league throughout the season, and I just don’t seem him separating THAT far from the pack in the best case scenario.

His strong ST gave me hope that most of his relief numbers from 2018 would carry over to the starter role and he’d become a keeper gem but that dream is dead.

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On 4/8/2019 at 7:59 PM, Weekday Warrior said:

I dropped him for a speculative saves add. 

It’s early so he could still be a good player, but there are generally decent mid-grade starters available on the waiver wire in my league throughout the season, and I just don’t seem him separating THAT far from the pack in the best case scenario.

His strong ST gave me hope that most of his relief numbers from 2018 would carry over to the starter role and he’d become a keeper gem but that dream is dead.

After two starts..Jesus.

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On 4/8/2019 at 5:59 PM, Weekday Warrior said:

I dropped him for a speculative saves add. 

It’s early so he could still be a good player, but there are generally decent mid-grade starters available on the waiver wire in my league throughout the season, and I just don’t seem him separating THAT far from the pack in the best case scenario.

His strong ST gave me hope that most of his relief numbers from 2018 would carry over to the starter role and he’d become a keeper gem but that dream is dead.

 

 

ūüėā¬†

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If he struggles again against the diamondbacks, I think he is primed for a drop. If you find another SP that you like that is performing now, you make the change. He has no track record of SP performance. I am already not starting him this weekend. Why hold players that you don't have confidence in starting? 

I have him in one league and am ready to drop. If he blows up against the Dbacks he's gone. If he has a QS, I'll hold. If he has a below average start, it'll depend on when Betances comes back and I have to make a decision on who to cut. 

 

Edited by tonycpsu
Edited out quote of deleted comment.
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2 hours ago, mtblock said:

If he struggles again against the diamondbacks, I think he is primed for a drop. If you find another SP that you like that is performing now, you make the change. He has no track record of SP performance. I am already not starting him this weekend. Why hold players that you don't have confidence in starting? 

I have him in one league and am ready to drop. If he blows up against the Dbacks he's gone. If he has a QS, I'll hold. If he has a below average start, it'll depend on when Betances comes back and I have to make a decision on who to cut. 

 

Because the season is 25 weeks long and players tend to not perform in a linear pattern?

Edited by tonycpsu
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Let's not forget league dynamic here guys. Strahm has no history of being a dominant SP like he's being spoken about. He had a great spring, and has had some bad luck early, but these definitive statements about him being undroppable are invalid. (I drafted for $1, was elated, but w/ Kimbrel still unsigned and Minter back from IL, I too had to cut... he went unclaimed FWIW.)

Point is, Redraft vs. Keeper vs. Dynasty vs. QS vs. Wins... there are many reasons to believe he will be good in the future, but it's not criminal to cut bait for something your team may need more at the moment. This is the time of year where guys that help win championships are plucked off the WW annually. Another aspect is the loaded system in SD... if Strahm doesn't find immediate success, he may be put back into the RP role to accommodate the other dynamic arms on the verge of a call up. SD has been very" AGRI-ESSIVE" w/ said call ups, just something to consider going forward. (They will splash the pot when they damn well feel like it! LOL)

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Yeah, It think it can be both things at the same time- premature to write him off and time to pick up someone else.  If we had unlimited roster slots, there'd be dozens of guys I'd like to roster and be patient with.  But in fantasy baseball you have only so many roster slots and you have to make tough choices. There are guys you just don't drop if they are struggling because of their track record and market value.  Strahm is not one of those guys. 

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1 hour ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Because the season is 25 weeks long and players tend to not perform in a linear pattern?

See below..

3 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

Yeah, It think it can be both things at the same time- premature to write him off and time to pick up someone else.  If we had unlimited roster slots, there'd be dozens of guys I'd like to roster and be patient with.  But in fantasy baseball you have only so many roster slots and you have to make tough choices. There are guys you just don't drop if they are struggling because of their track record and market value.  Strahm is not one of those guys. 

Its this. My league only has 5 bench spots. I'm not wasting it on a pitcher I can't use. I would rather have a bench bat, RP, or another rising SP. 

If he doesn't pitch well against the Dbacks, I no longer consider him a rising SP that I am willing to commit to. No, I'm not going to drop SPs just because they are struggling...even Sale is being held on to despite his issues. But there is nothing saying Strahm will be the pitcher you think he will. 

If you cant pitch well against the dbacks, who can you pitch against? I need to see 5-6IP and less than 2-3ER for me to hold. 

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Yeah it is all league format dependent but I too have a shallow bench roster, more pressing needs than SP depth, and I like my chances of being able to troll the waiver wire for equivalent SP value down the road if the need arises.  He was a lottery ticket to begin with.  

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8 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

I hope everyone held onto him

 

People that overreact and don't heed good advice I have no sympathy for. They deserve to have their money taken. Coming to conclusions after 1, 2 starts gets you on the fast track to the bottom of your league standings. The potential is real with this guy. And if you drafted him last year or this year, you have to understand it's a process and it takes time, but you likely got him cheap, but the return on that investment could be immense. 

Edited by kwolf68
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32 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

 

People that overreact and don't heed good advice I have no sympathy for. They deserve to have their money taken. Coming to conclusions after 1, 2 starts gets you on the fast track to the bottom of your league standings. The potential is real with this guy. And if you drafted him last year or this year, you have to understand it's a process and it takes time, but you likely got him cheap, but the return on that investment could be immense. 

I'd be careful declaring victory on a guy after he faced the Reds. They're a terrible offensive team. 

He did look better, but he's still completely dependent on his slider. Was able to get 8 whiffs on it. But his FB is still weak. He threw 24 at an average velocity of 91.6 and only got a single whiff on it. Same with his changeup, he threw 21 and only got 2 whiffs.

That FB is gonna get crushed by a solid lineup. He's got a hard hit rate over 50% and a flyball rate over 43%. Still think he's a reliever who's trying to be a starter. 

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40 minutes ago, High&Inside said:

I'd be careful declaring victory on a guy after he faced the Reds. They're a terrible offensive team. 

He did look better, but he's still completely dependent on his slider. Was able to get 8 whiffs on it. But his FB is still weak. He threw 24 at an average velocity of 91.6 and only got a single whiff on it. Same with his changeup, he threw 21 and only got 2 whiffs.

That FB is gonna get crushed by a solid lineup. He's got a hard hit rate over 50% and a flyball rate over 43%. Still think he's a reliever who's trying to be a starter. 

 

I watched the entire start and his stuff doesn't seem that special. His results seemed more to be the product of the Reds lackluster hitting. They swung at a lot of first pitches and made easy outs for him. Definitely not sold on him vs better lineups just yet.

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8 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

 

I watched the entire start and his stuff doesn't seem that special. His results seemed more to be the product of the Reds lackluster hitting. They swung at a lot of first pitches and made easy outs for him. Definitely not sold on him vs better lineups just yet.

This makes me more suspect of him as a starter. I didn't see the game, had only checked numbers. The combo of eye test and numbers raises the ante on skepticism.

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Some fairly encouraging indicators behind the start last night:

FB- threw 24 at an average of almost 92 MPH and over 70% strike rate with 1 whiff, but wow did it have some incredible movement, both vertical and horizontal action!

SL- was main secondary, sat 85MPH with very good vertical sweep, 36 thrown-23 strikes-19 swings- and 8 whiffs!

CH- also really flashed plus, sat 84MPH with an insanely high amount of drop and good dart action to it, threw 21- at over 85% strike rate with 16 swings and 2 whiffs

Only threw 6 curves but got 4 over at 78 MPH, he's had a good one in the past and hope the confidence comes back with it because it really changes the velo range.

I've seldom seen a CH with that kind of fall-off-the-table action, he can work very well with the offerings that were on display last night.

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As someone who's never really heard much about Strahm, what do you guy's expect ROS ?

From what I see he was decent as a RP last season. His minors stats seem pretty good, low ERA, K/B WHIP not bad at all. Granted it's the minors, but same tool set/velocity and having success in the bigs as well.

Steven's info post above seemed pretty encouraging. I don't know how high on SD's prospect list he had been or if anyone has followed him from minors to bigs, would love to from anyone who's kept up on him. Seems like he could be useful with how lousy a lot of our FA SP is these days. Be interesting to see the results of his @WAH start tomorrow.

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