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Lewis Brinson 2019 Outlook


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9 hours ago, taobball said:

The simple problem with Brinson is the steals, it isn't more complicated than that. Why it's that simple to me is that, if I'm remembering the Lewis Brinson everyone else is, he was always considered a bit of a contact/average risk. I remember him being compared (favorably at the time based on his performance) to Carlos Gomez, but even Carlos Gomez, who WAS a first round player, would've been jack-s--- if he didn't steal bases. 

 

Okay, that's a little extreme, but Gomez's peak was, ignoring steals, 23-24 HRs and a .280 BA. I think that's a hard peak for Lewis Brinson to get to (especially BA), but even if I see signs of that breakout, and I believe that breakout to be imminent, if he steals 3-5 Bases, he's still just "okay." Like that's not too different from an Eduardo Escobar line, and once again I think .280 is a prayer BA for Brinson. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I'll keep an eye on him as a hitter, ST or no, early season if he's there, but the idea of Brinson as a post-hype sleeper is completely ruined by the fact that his legs have just never translated in any relevant way. And that's not just an overreaction to his 2 SBs, 1 CS over 400+ PAs last year, his conversion rates have been in the 2/3's rate in AA and AAA, which typically doesn't translate to much success. 

 

He has attempted 2 steals this spring and was caught once.

I agree, the no SB factor is a killer, but also the park and putrid lineup are big factors as well. If he manages to hit .250 with 25 HR (which in itself is a very rosy projection), his run and RBI totals will still be very weak. Add in the fact he's probably not going to reach double digit steals and he's basically a one category (HR) player, who's not even that elite at HR, and he's at the deepest fantasy position. At least with the similar Buxton hype he has potential game breaking speed and a decent lineup to fall back on.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

While looking for OF depth in one of my leagues, I noticed Brinson is on the wire and thought I'd see what Fangraphs and Baseball Savant had to say. Overall, things seem to be looking up from last year:

Fangraphs

  • 19% K-rate (down from 29.6% in 2018)
  • 56% Hard% vs. 12% Soft%
  • LD% up from 16.8% to 25% (same FB% as 2018, but lower GB%)
  • SwStrk% down from 17% to 13%

 

Statcast

  • EV up from 88.7 to 91.4
  • Launch Angle up from 7.3% to 9.3%
  • XBA .341/XWOBA .401
  • 44th in Barrels/PA% (10.0) for players with at least 20 BBEs

 

He still hasn't taken a walk, so that's not great, but it's really the only blemish I'm seeing. Admittedly, I'm kind of a novice when it comes to the advanced stats, so maybe things aren't as rosy as they seem, but from what I can tell, he might be slowly figuring things out. 

 

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23 minutes ago, Fantasy Dork said:

While looking for OF depth in one of my leagues, I noticed Brinson is on the wire and thought I'd see what Fangraphs and Baseball Savant had to say. Overall, things seem to be looking up from last year:

Fangraphs

  • 19% K-rate (down from 29.6% in 2018)
  • 56% Hard% vs. 12% Soft%
  • LD% up from 16.8% to 25% (same FB% as 2018, but lower GB%)
  • SwStrk% down from 17% to 13%

 

Statcast

  • EV up from 88.7 to 91.4
  • Launch Angle up from 7.3% to 9.3%
  • XBA .341/XWOBA .401
  • 44th in Barrels/PA% (10.0) for players with at least 20 BBEs

 

He still hasn't taken a walk, so that's not great, but it's really the only blemish I'm seeing. Admittedly, I'm kind of a novice when it comes to the advanced stats, so maybe things aren't as rosy as they seem, but from what I can tell, he might be slowly figuring things out. 

 

You did pretty darn good. That line drive rate is super encouraging.

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It is nice to see him improving, but unfortunately hitting in the bottom half of their lineup kills any value he has.  For him, the .275 average is nice, but it's almost literally with no other stats period.

Still, he's somebody I wouldn't mind adding if he ever got moved up to a spot where he could even get a little bit of counting stats.  Their lineup is so bad that it'll be hard to get much even batting leadoff, but he wouldn't be a bad 5th OF or UTIL guy if he was in a better spot in the lineup.

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I got him for cheap in an NL only dynasty this offseason and felt like I was stealing something. But I was discouraged by the early returns- thanks for those numbers. They argue that we should be patient imo (unlike Brinsons approach lol)

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Did someone say improving? wait what? - 47 at bats,  0 BB 14K.... nevermind the hits(only 11 and only 3 of them for more than 1b) that does not look like any improvement at all. I guess he is on pace to take his first walk somewhere in may.

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On 4/10/2019 at 1:37 PM, Fantasy Dork said:

While looking for OF depth in one of my leagues, I noticed Brinson is on the wire and thought I'd see what Fangraphs and Baseball Savant had to say. Overall, things seem to be looking up from last year:

Fangraphs

  • 19% K-rate (down from 29.6% in 2018)
  • 56% Hard% vs. 12% Soft%
  • LD% up from 16.8% to 25% (same FB% as 2018, but lower GB%)
  • SwStrk% down from 17% to 13%

 

Statcast

  • EV up from 88.7 to 91.4
  • Launch Angle up from 7.3% to 9.3%
  • XBA .341/XWOBA .401
  • 44th in Barrels/PA% (10.0) for players with at least 20 BBEs

 

He still hasn't taken a walk, so that's not great, but it's really the only blemish I'm seeing. Admittedly, I'm kind of a novice when it comes to the advanced stats, so maybe things aren't as rosy as they seem, but from what I can tell, he might be slowly figuring things out. 

 

 

The Statcast data is encouraging but i wouldn't put too much stock in the K-Rate. It's already gone up to 26.7% since you posted.

I don't like that he's increased his OSwing% and decreased his ZSwing%. 

Still has a 16+% SwStr Rate and a < 70% contact rate which is 9th and 19th percentile respectively.

 

The hard contact is encouraging but he's still showing some definite flaws in his approach 

 

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  • 3 months later...

I know Brinson is likely a AAAA type player, but if he can find a way to translate his 16HRs/16SB production in 81 games in the minors this year to the majors he could be an fantasy asset..especially in NL only leagues. I think he will get a shot to show the Marlins what he has in the final two months of the season. 

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2 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

I know Brinson is likely a AAAA type player, but if he can find a way to translate his 16HRs/16SB production in 81 games in the minors this year to the majors he could be an fantasy asset..especially in NL only leagues. I think he will get a shot to show the Marlins what he has in the final two months of the season. 

Kinda like a BJ Upton type.

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4 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

I know Brinson is likely a AAAA type player, but if he can find a way to translate his 16HRs/16SB production in 81 games in the minors this year to the majors he could be an fantasy asset..especially in NL only leagues. I think he will get a shot to show the Marlins what he has in the final two months of the season. 

 

I would imagine he gets one more shot and then the Marlins move on.  

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2 hours ago, Overlord said:

 

I would imagine he gets one more shot and then the Marlins move on.  

One more shot meaning next year. My sense is they will give him seasoning this year then next year is make or break 

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