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Austin Barnes 2019 Outlook


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Now that Yasmani Grandal is long gone, what are we expecting out of Austin Barnes for the Dodgers?

They brought back Russel Martin for what it's worth.

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[Removed Cool Story]

Barnes is a very inconsistent player and so far, only one good year to show for in his MLB career; albeit, the first two years were SSS. One thing for sure though, in leagues with OBP, he can be serviceable as he has consistently shown that he is willing to take walks; what's going to determine his season from serviceable to decent or solid is his K% and of course a bit of luck (BABIP). Four years in the major and the K% goes from above avg. in one year to below average or poor in the next; again, very inconsistent and the projections around the industry are not kind to him as shown below. 

Personally, I feel he is more of a .250BA +/- /.350OBP + hitter and if he can have enough AB, 300AB +, he should get low teens HR with close to double digits SB.

 

 

2015 Dodgers 16.2 % 16.2 % 1.00 .207 .361 .276 .637 .069 4.7 .261 0.0 -0.2 0.2 4 -0.3 .302 93
2016 Dodgers 13.5 % 24.3 % 0.56 .156 .270 .188 .458 .031 1.4 .217 0.6 0.2 0.0 1 -2.9 .222 35
2017 Dodgers 14.9 % 16.4 % 0.91 .289 .408 .486 .895 .197 4.9 .329 -1.3 -0.2 0.2 46 14.3 .386 142
2018 Dodgers 13.0 % 28.2 % 0.46 .205 .329 .290 .619 .085 3.8 .287 0.8 -0.8 -0.6 21 -6.6 .281 77

 

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2015 25 LAD NL 20 37 29 4 6 2 0 0 1 1 0 6 6 .207 .361 .276 .637 83 8 2 1 1 0 0 2/45  
2016 26 LAD NL 21 37 32 3 5 1 0 0 2 0 0 5 9 .156 .270 .188 .458 28 6 0 0 0 0 0 /245  
2017 27 LAD NL 102 262 218 35 63 15 2 8 38 4 1 39 43 .289 .408 .486 .895 138 106 6 5 0 0 1 24/5D  
2018 28 LAD NL 100 238 200 32 41 5 0 4 14 4 3 31 67 .205 .329 .290 .619 72 58 7 6 1 0 4 24

 

2019 THE BAT 97 339 390 78 52 16 1 9 45 38 43 2 90 5 2 1 8 5 2 .232
2019 ATC 90 294 343 73 49 14 1 9 43 36 42 1 80 5 1 1 8 5 3 .248
2019 Depth Charts 91 329 384 78 54 16 1 7 44 38 45 3 84 6 2 2   8 2 .237
2019 Steamer 71 243 283 57 38 12 1 6 29 28 33 2 64 4 2 2   5 2 .233
2019 ZiPS 102 262 306 63 44 13 1 5 38 30 37 2 65 5 1 1 7 7 2 .240
Edited by tonycpsu
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Barnes is borderline in standard leagues with full time, and I think Russell Martin will get many starts. I see it more as a straight split than either starting. So I'm staying away from Barnes. If Martin got hurt he becomes someone to consider.

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6 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Barnes is borderline in standard leagues with full time, and I think Russell Martin will get many starts. I see it more as a straight split than either starting. So I'm staying away from Barnes. If Martin got hurt he becomes someone to consider.

 

Martin hit .120 no way he gets that many starts

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  • 2 weeks later...

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts estimated Thursday that Austin Barnes will get 60 percent of the starts at catcher this season.

Russell Martin will get the other 40 percent. Barnes has enjoyed a productive Cactus League campaign after disappointing offensively during the 2018 regular season, but he can mostly be ignored in standard mixed fantasy leagues because of the coming timeshare behind the plate in Los Angeles.

 

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That split kinda blows.  60% is just shy of 100 games.  He was a sleeperish catcher for me but at this split he's a hard pass. I'd imagine if Martin his .150 and Barnes hits well, that this planned split will quickly change.

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3 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

That split kinda blows.  60% is just shy of 100 games.  He was a sleeperish catcher for me but at this split he's a hard pass. I'd imagine if Martin his .150 and Barnes hits well, that this planned split will quickly change.

Yea, 60% of starts just isn't worth keeping on your roster. 

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Just a hunch but if he continues to keep producing in the regular season, I can see the timeshare coming down pretty drastically. He's definitely not a great option for standard leagues at the moment but deeper leagues and two catcher leagues he is still a sleeper.

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19 hours ago, dicka24 said:

That split kinda blows.  60% is just shy of 100 games.  He was a sleeperish catcher for me but at this split he's a hard pass. I'd imagine if Martin his .150 and Barnes hits well, that this planned split will quickly change.

When do any plans for any player last all year?

Also Russell Martin is one of THE most streakiest hitters on planet earth probably only second to Justin Upton in that regard.  If Martin is hitting like crazy he will play more.  If not, and he usually is not, he will play less.  Also Martin can play a little 3rd as a fill-in there too.

Also 100 games is about 350 to 400 ABs (Dodgers line-up is not weak and will turn over more) which is pretty typical of most catchers other than ironmen types.

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27 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Looks like I was way off on a 120 game estimate.

 

Meh, if he’s really getting 60%, youre probably not off by much by the time you figure in games he subs.  350-400ab of non-average destroying at bats from your catcher is worth something 

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On 3/22/2019 at 9:58 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

When do any plans for any player last all year?

Also Russell Martin is one of THE most streakiest hitters on planet earth probably only second to Justin Upton in that regard.  If Martin is hitting like crazy he will play more.  If not, and he usually is not, he will play less.  Also Martin can play a little 3rd as a fill-in there too.

Also 100 games is about 350 to 400 ABs (Dodgers line-up is not weak and will turn over more) which is pretty typical of most catchers other than ironmen types.

 

I agree. Barnes is very athletic and is the better defensive catcher, IMO. I think he'll wind up with more than 60% of the starts when it's all said and done. Solid option in 2 catcher leagues.

Edited by Homerj24
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11 minutes ago, benturn22 said:

I guess this guy will play every other game as long as Martin is with the Dodgers?

yeah was really hoping this guy who get everyday starts but Roberts is committed to his timeshares and platoons which are def hurting Pederson, Barnes and Muncy!

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  • 3 months later...

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