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Kyle Freeland 2019 Outlook


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Was going through some ADPs and, wow.  Dude is going at 202 over at ESPN, 156 according to NFBC.

I know this guy is the poster child for pretty significant regression.  ERA of 2.85 vs his 3.67 FIP & 4.22 xFIP.  All the major projection systems have him in about the low'ish to mid'ish 4s.  ATC & The Bat are the most bullish at around 4.15, while Steamer has him up over 4.60.

Obviously, this is a guy I'd be driving 100 mph in the opposite direction of for this year.  Lightning doesn't strike twice, but man, at pick 200, don't you just kind of HAVE to take him and hope maybe the lightning, at least grazes him this time?

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35 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Was going through some ADPs and, wow.  Dude is going at 202 over at ESPN, 156 according to NFBC.

I know this guy is the poster child for pretty significant regression.  ERA of 2.85 vs his 3.67 FIP & 4.22 xFIP.  All the major projection systems have him in about the low'ish to mid'ish 4s.  ATC & The Bat are the most bullish at around 4.15, while Steamer has him up over 4.60.

Obviously, this is a guy I'd be driving 100 mph in the opposite direction of for this year.  Lightning doesn't strike twice, but man, at pick 200, don't you just kind of HAVE to take him and hope maybe the lightning, at least grazes him this time?

Betting against coors has been tremendously profitable since I've played fantasy baseball. Not saying he can't have a good year, but I'm not tremendously bullish on the third best pitcher in Colorado. 

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If you employ your theory of trying to get lucky with lightning, better off going for a guy like Anibal Sanchez or Wade Miley way later. In the end, the likely scenario is that all are not rosterable in all standard and most deep formats.

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Trevor Williams is in a similar position to Kyle Freeland. I want no part of either unless its a super deep or NL Only and they are close to free.  If I had to chose one, its probably Freeland, but I doubt I own either. Not saying they can't have a good year, but I don't like the odds and it probably doesn't' happen on my team, and I'm ok with that. 

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I completely understand the regression theory/coors field here etc.. but if he was THAT lights out last year then why isn't it possible for him to keep pitching like this? I don't think I have seen one person say he will continue to pitch well. I guess im being naïve...

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6 minutes ago, floppy said:

I completely understand the regression theory/coors field here etc.. but if he was THAT lights out last year then why isn't it possible for him to keep pitching like this? I don't think I have seen one person say he will continue to pitch well. I guess im being naïve...

He has pitched in that climate most of his life, so I think he will continue to bang out quality starts and wins and improve, provided the offense continues to motor along.

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22 minutes ago, floppy said:

I completely understand the regression theory/coors field here etc.. but if he was THAT lights out last year then why isn't it possible for him to keep pitching like this? I don't think I have seen one person say he will continue to pitch well. I guess im being naïve...

It's possible just highly unlikely.  K/9 not nearly as high as we would like.  There's regression and then there's REGRESSION. To me his underlying metrics scream it.  ERA over 4 incoming.

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His pitching grades are very good per Fangraphs from 2018.  I'll respectfully disagree on serious regression.  

 

FB.     SL.   CT.   FB/C    SL/C.   CT/C 

18.5.  2.7.  2.4   1.09      1.02.   0.25

 

If he develops that CH at -2.7, watch out!!!

Edited by STLSU
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  • 3 weeks later...

Like OP, I got him way late after seeing his point total. I get Sabremetrics is fashionable and he stranded a lot of baserunners...but the guy just threw an opening day gem this year.

At the price point, gotta ride until the wheels fall off. But I think he's a solid pitcher who could be had for a song because everyone hates coors field.

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I think he could have a solid season. Sure, probably won't be as great as last season, but for a guy going in the late rounds, or like in one of my leagues not drafted at all, he can return positive value. Keep in mind last season he pitched to a 20 percent soft hit rate (15th in MLB) and a 31.6 percent hard hit rate (16th lowest). I'm not as worried about him getting lit up at Coors as I am with other pitchers. And I know he overperformed according to FIP, but let's be honest here, FIP is awful at taking into account pitchers that aren't strikeout pitchers; groundball pitchers and guys that pitch to soft contact regularly outperform that metric. 

Yes, it does make sense that Freeman isn't going early, and I wouldn't target him early. Rostering a Rockies starting pitcher is always risky. But for where he's going he's worth it. Likely won't pitch below 3.00 again, but he can still put up respectable numbers.

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12 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

I had heard earlier this spring that he had an uptick in velocity.

I had some buffering issues on my mlb stream yesterday, but I did see him get up to 93.

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  • 4 weeks later...
5 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

No talk on this guy. Hmm

 

All things considered there wasn't much to talk about until he shut down the Phillies of all teams @ Coors. Think he has SP2 potential just like last year if he keeps pitching like that. But if the blister makes him have blowups...not so much. Plus his home road splits were as expected last season. But I'll take him over a lot of other SPs right now. He's got high upside.

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1 minute ago, Baloo said:

 

All things considered there wasn't much to talk about until he shut down the Phillies of all teams @ Coors. Think he has SP2 potential just like last year if he keeps pitching like that. But if the blister makes him have blowups...not so much. Plus his home road splits were as expected last season. But I'll take him over a lot of other SPs right now. He's got high upside.

 

Yeah just in general a quiet thread. I own Marquez so I think I’m staying away for now. Not sure I can stomach 2 Rockies pitchers. But I am intrigued in roto, especially after last season. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Had a rough first inning, the rust of missing a start probably didn't help. Settled in nicely after that with only 1 additional run allowed and was still only at 84 pitches, could have gone deeper. Final line was ugly but could have been much worse. I think this guy is way underrated, especially given he actually pitched better in Coors last year. If he can end the year with a mid-to-high 3's ERA, double digit wins and a WHIP in the 1.2's that is very serviceable for a back of the rotation fantasy starter.

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Not sure this guy is worth owning anymore. Most of his peripherals are almost exactly the same as last season, his LD/GB/FB (19.5%/45.5%/35.0%) all within .5% of last season's numbers. His K rate and BB rate sit at 19.5 and 8.1 percent respectively. But his HR/FB rate has skyrocketed to 18.6 percent with a ten percent increase in hard hit rate and a four percent decrease in soft hit rate, i.e. it's not all luck. I don't like that hard hit number for a Rockies pitcher that is known for pitching to contact, even if most of it is ground ball contact enough is fly ball that I can see his ERA being closer to 4.00 than 3.00 when all is said and done. He's better than the 5.90 he's putting up now, but I'm leaning more and more towards his being a streaming option. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
1 hour ago, cizastro said:

This guy just obliterated my ERA and WHIP in my roto league against the lowly Orioles.  He's a safe drop now. 

Owning a Rockies pitcher is a dangerous game. I never do it. I will never do it. I don’t feel it is worth it. There is always a HUGE risk. Don’t even care if it’s Marquez. He’s good, but I still don’t like it.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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  • 2 weeks later...

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