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Raimel Tapia 2019 Outlook


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Bud Black drooling at the thought of Mark Reynolds in CF right now. 

I mostly agree with this. Tapia’s xwOBA is 279, more than 100 points lower than his actual wOBA. Coors and luck are the two biggest drivers of his current stat line, with skill a distant third. T

Good points.  At the same time it is too tempting to roster a possible everyday player on the Rockies.

4 hours ago, Fantasyguy007 said:

So 5 lefties this week, Tapia is a no doubt bench correct?

I did not pick him up to stream for this very reason.  Sucks cuz they play at home all week but all those LHP's stinks.

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18 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Making his 2nd straight start vs. a lefty today. Dahl has been on the bench both times.

Yesterday he went 3-for-4 with a double, including 2-for-3 off Bumgarner.

So how do we see this going forward now that they have 4 OFs? Thinking of picking up Tapia tonight. 

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28 minutes ago, mtblock said:

So how do we see this going forward now that they have 4 OFs? Thinking of picking up Tapia tonight. 

You could chalk up them not playing Dahl against Bumgarner, but Holland is far from a feared lefty.  I guess Dahl is no longer playing at all vs. LHP, which opens things up for Tapia then.

The issue for tonight's game is the weather.  I'm surprised they haven't postponed it yet.

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46 minutes ago, mtblock said:

So how do we see this going forward now that they have 4 OFs? Thinking of picking up Tapia tonight. 

The logical thing for the Rockies to do would be to DFA Desmond and let all their youngsters play more regularly.

The next most logical thing would be to restrict Desmond to the short side of a platoon and let Dahl/Tapia play everyday vs. R and split time vs. L.

What they'll actually probably do is haphazardly juggle their 4 OF in a way that leaves all of us confused.

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Some cold water:

Lucky Hitters

Raimel Tapia. It certainly does look as if Tapia has taken a starting job from Ian Desmond, doesn’t it? As guys who, with their usual consummate timing, drafted Desmond this year for the first time since he became a Rockie (“Rocky”?), we won’t deny Desmond deserves it. But we’re not so sure Tapia keeps the job. His walk rate is down, his strikeout rate is up, and he’s making less contact. True, his hard-hit percentage is unprecedentedly high, but that just means it’s in the bottom quintile of MLB rather than the bottom decile. That .373 BABIP is unsustainable, and since he isn’t stealing bases and won’t hit home runs, Desmond (or more precisely, his ruinous long-term contract—not just a candidate for the worst ever, but clearly recognizable as such from the git-go) probably reclaims the job as soon as Tapia slumps. No reason to dump Tapia now, but no reason to pay a premium to get him, either.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/whos-been-unlucky-so-far-hitter-edition/#more-115909

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13 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Some cold water:

Lucky Hitters

Raimel Tapia. It certainly does look as if Tapia has taken a starting job from Ian Desmond, doesn’t it? As guys who, with their usual consummate timing, drafted Desmond this year for the first time since he became a Rockie (“Rocky”?), we won’t deny Desmond deserves it. But we’re not so sure Tapia keeps the job. His walk rate is down, his strikeout rate is up, and he’s making less contact. True, his hard-hit percentage is unprecedentedly high, but that just means it’s in the bottom quintile of MLB rather than the bottom decile. That .373 BABIP is unsustainable, and since he isn’t stealing bases and won’t hit home runs, Desmond (or more precisely, his ruinous long-term contract—not just a candidate for the worst ever, but clearly recognizable as such from the git-go) probably reclaims the job as soon as Tapia slumps. No reason to dump Tapia now, but no reason to pay a premium to get him, either.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/whos-been-unlucky-so-far-hitter-edition/#more-115909

 

Good points.  At the same time it is too tempting to roster a possible everyday player on the Rockies.

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21 minutes ago, B&F said:

 

Good points.  At the same time it is too tempting to roster a possible everyday player on the Rockies.

Agree. My biased optimistic side sees Tapia play & if there is any player in MLB now that can't be gauged by sabermetrics & deep stats, it's him. I think he only gets better with experience. He's fun to watch, production will come....

 

And they are good points, COL will absolutely sit him for Desmond at the first sign of a cold streak & already it seems he's being kept from LHP starters even though his vsLHP/vsRHP are even. It'll be frustrating but hopefully we'll see a lot more good than bad as the season goes & by this time next year, Tapia will be an entrenched unquestioned starter in the COL OF.

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1 hour ago, espnfanco said:

I picked Tapia back up. This guy is the 3rd best hitter in the Rockies lineup AND is hitting lefties well too.  How can they keep on benching him?

Cause the team still thinks there's a chance Ian Desmond will be go....  goo....  Nope, can't finish it.  There'd be too much bs in that statement for me to say...

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1 hour ago, espnfanco said:

I picked Tapia back up. This guy is the 3rd best hitter in the Rockies lineup AND is hitting lefties well too.  How can they keep on benching him?

Because you were over rating him like everyone does to all Rockies prospects them blames management instead of admitting they're wrong. 

Tapia really hasn't hit all that well... he's striking out 30% of the time, walking only 6%... it's taking an inflated 393 BABIP just for him to hit 295... his hard hit rate is only 31% and he's smashing balls into the ground at a rate of 46%... he's got a terrible 38% O-swing, and his swinging strikes is a laughable 18% -- he's a hacker that power the stadium with wind power.

The peripherals he's putting up really aren't good at all at any level. 

But keep blaming Bud Black when the guy is a zero discipline windmill that doesn't hit the ball hard.

There's A LOT of work cut out for him to be a reliable player moving forward. 

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55 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Cause the team still thinks there's a chance Ian Desmond will be go....  goo....  Nope, can't finish it.  There'd be too much bs in that statement for me to say...

 

Desmond is in that rare group of players who is a better fantasy asset than one irl. Matt Kemp also comes to mind

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9 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Because you were over rating him like everyone does to all Rockies prospects them blames management instead of admitting they're wrong. 

Tapia really hasn't hit all that well... he's striking out 30% of the time, walking only 6%... it's taking an inflated 393 BABIP just for him to hit 295... his hard hit rate is only 31% and he's smashing balls into the ground at a rate of 46%... he's got a terrible 38% O-swing, and his swinging strikes is a laughable 18% -- he's a hacker that power the stadium with wind power.

The peripherals he's putting up really aren't good at all at any level. 

But keep blaming Bud Black when the guy is a zero discipline windmill that doesn't hit the ball hard.

There's A LOT of work cut out for him to be a reliable player moving forward. 

I mostly agree with this. Tapia’s xwOBA is 279, more than 100 points lower than his actual wOBA. Coors and luck are the two biggest drivers of his current stat line, with skill a distant third.

That said, I think he’s capable of cutting the K rate based on his MiLB history, and his speed and home park will support a pretty high BABIP (though not the .413 he’s up to after today). His hard hit rate and exit velo aren’t great but they are improving.

Right now he’s a bad player with good stats, but I think he can become a mediocre player with good stats.

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He has hit well vs LHP; however, all his games are on the road this week.  He hasn't hit well away from Coors and 2 of his 5 games this week are in Fenway, which is not a good park for lefty hitters

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10 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Because you were over rating him like everyone does to all Rockies prospects them blames management instead of admitting they're wrong. 

Tapia really hasn't hit all that well... he's striking out 30% of the time, walking only 6%... it's taking an inflated 393 BABIP just for him to hit 295... his hard hit rate is only 31% and he's smashing balls into the ground at a rate of 46%... he's got a terrible 38% O-swing, and his swinging strikes is a laughable 18% -- he's a hacker that power the stadium with wind power.

The peripherals he's putting up really aren't good at all at any level. 

But keep blaming Bud Black when the guy is a zero discipline windmill that doesn't hit the ball hard.

There's A LOT of work cut out for him to be a reliable player moving forward. 

 

Rockies prospects are overrated for a reason but Tapia is a bit of a different case. In the minors, he had a .319 average with developing power and 20+ SB speed. The hit tool is 50/60, power is 45/50, and the speed is 60/60. 

The peripherals are good on several levels. You mentioned his hard hit rate being only 31%; but on the flip side of that, his soft% is 10.3% -- 14th best in the league. Guys that are around him are names like Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo. He may not be blistering the ball but he's also not hitting dribblers like you implied. He's raised his exit velocity 6 degrees thus far this season and has doubled his barrel %. His sprint speed is in the 86th percentile. He has essentially no splits (v L: .357 / .379 / .679; v R: .296 / .342 / .606). He's a free-swinger, his O-swing % is always going to be high. 

Bud Black actually works in our favor here too. Bud is obsessed with AVG and RBI. He's not looking at BABIP, wOBA, hard%, etc. (based on what we know). Tap is third on the team in AVG and fourth in RBIs. Bud loves that 💩

Yes, he's got A LOT to work on. However, the upside here is a .320 hitter with 15 HR and 20 SB. The heavenly upside is 30/30. The prospect fatigue sat in on Tap but he's still only age 25, has a very unique hit tool that is hard to compare with conventional statistics, developing power, no splits, and speed in Coors. 

He's a must add in dynasty, 12 TM 5 OF+, and if you like upside, probably an add most anywhere besides your family mickey mouse league. I wouldn't buy him high but let's see what happens here before we blatantly disregard him based on a few choice statistics. 

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