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Raimel Tapia 2019 Outlook


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21 hours ago, espnfanco said:

I picked Tapia back up. This guy is the 3rd best hitter in the Rockies lineup AND is hitting lefties well too.  How can they keep on benching him?

Also, 3rd best hitter... so is he better than Arenado, Story, or Blackmon?

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Bud Black drooling at the thought of Mark Reynolds in CF right now. 

I mostly agree with this. Tapia’s xwOBA is 279, more than 100 points lower than his actual wOBA. Coors and luck are the two biggest drivers of his current stat line, with skill a distant third. T

Good points.  At the same time it is too tempting to roster a possible everyday player on the Rockies.

3 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Also, 3rd best hitter... so is he better than Arenado, Story, or Blackmon?

 

At the time of my posting he was hitting better than Blackmon. Tell me who else is doing better except for Arenado and Story? 

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12 hours ago, Fenamo said:

 

Rockies prospects are overrated for a reason but Tapia is a bit of a different case. In the minors, he had a .319 average with developing power and 20+ SB speed. The hit tool is 50/60, power is 45/50, and the speed is 60/60. 

The peripherals are good on several levels. You mentioned his hard hit rate being only 31%; but on the flip side of that, his soft% is 10.3% -- 14th best in the league. Guys that are around him are names like Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo. He may not be blistering the ball but he's also not hitting dribblers like you implied. He's raised his exit velocity 6 degrees thus far this season and has doubled his barrel %. His sprint speed is in the 86th percentile. He has essentially no splits (v L: .357 / .379 / .679; v R: .296 / .342 / .606). He's a free-swinger, his O-swing % is always going to be high. 

Bud Black actually works in our favor here too. Bud is obsessed with AVG and RBI. He's not looking at BABIP, wOBA, hard%, etc. (based on what we know). Tap is third on the team in AVG and fourth in RBIs. Bud loves that 💩

Yes, he's got A LOT to work on. However, the upside here is a .320 hitter with 15 HR and 20 SB. The heavenly upside is 30/30. The prospect fatigue sat in on Tap but he's still only age 25, has a very unique hit tool that is hard to compare with conventional statistics, developing power, no splits, and speed in Coors. 

He's a must add in dynasty, 12 TM 5 OF+, and if you like upside, probably an add most anywhere besides your family mickey mouse league. I wouldn't buy him high but let's see what happens here before we blatantly disregard him based on a few choice statistics. 

 

Exactly, and at Coors Field it’s hard to not roster him when he was just a FA. Lots of home games and sunny weather coming up. Tapia should be playing every single day. 

Edited by espnfanco
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7 minutes ago, Overlord said:

If you thought the Colorado Rockies were going to call up a promising rookie and then NOT utterly mishandle him then you haven't been paying attention.  

 

Oh I have, I live in Denver. It’s frustrating... but I believe Tapia could be a worthy add until he slumps. His ceiling is sky high. 

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On 5/13/2019 at 10:14 PM, espnfanco said:

 

At the time of my posting he was hitting better than Blackmon. Tell me who else is doing better except for Arenado and Story? 

I just think it's ridiculous to call him a better hitter than Charlie Blackmon, but thanks for answering. 

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On 5/13/2019 at 9:54 AM, Fenamo said:

 

Rockies prospects are overrated for a reason but Tapia is a bit of a different case. In the minors, he had a .319 average with developing power and 20+ SB speed. The hit tool is 50/60, power is 45/50, and the speed is 60/60. 

The peripherals are good on several levels. You mentioned his hard hit rate being only 31%; but on the flip side of that, his soft% is 10.3% -- 14th best in the league. Guys that are around him are names like Nelson Cruz and Joey Gallo. He may not be blistering the ball but he's also not hitting dribblers like you implied. He's raised his exit velocity 6 degrees thus far this season and has doubled his barrel %. His sprint speed is in the 86th percentile. He has essentially no splits (v L: .357 / .379 / .679; v R: .296 / .342 / .606). He's a free-swinger, his O-swing % is always going to be high. 

Bud Black actually works in our favor here too. Bud is obsessed with AVG and RBI. He's not looking at BABIP, wOBA, hard%, etc. (based on what we know). Tap is third on the team in AVG and fourth in RBIs. Bud loves that 💩

Yes, he's got A LOT to work on. However, the upside here is a .320 hitter with 15 HR and 20 SB. The heavenly upside is 30/30. The prospect fatigue sat in on Tap but he's still only age 25, has a very unique hit tool that is hard to compare with conventional statistics, developing power, no splits, and speed in Coors. 

He's a must add in dynasty, 12 TM 5 OF+, and if you like upside, probably an add most anywhere besides your family mickey mouse league. I wouldn't buy him high but let's see what happens here before we blatantly disregard him based on a few choice statistics. 

I didn't imply he's hitting dribblers, I simply stated his hard hit rate, which isn't that good. In combination with his other flaws such as his hacker mentality and sky high swing and miss, it doesn't paint a good picture.

He's got a lot of improvement in order to maintain or be a contributor -- his metrics scream regression from his small sample... but then again it is a small sample.

Guys are excited about his surface stats and Colorado, outside of that it's hopes and dreams right now, not actually indicators. 

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On 5/15/2019 at 8:58 PM, StevieStats said:

I just think it's ridiculous to call him a better hitter than Charlie Blackmon, but thanks for answering. 

I didn't say he was a better hitter, I said he had better production this year at the time of the post.  Thanks for your replies.  

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7 hours ago, espnfanco said:

I didn't say he was a better hitter, I said he had better production this year at the time of the post.  Thanks for your replies.  

...but you did...

 

On 5/12/2019 at 9:37 PM, espnfanco said:

I picked Tapia back up. This guy is the 3rd best hitter in the Rockies lineup AND is hitting lefties well too.  How can they keep on benching him?

 

I get now, that's not what you meant to say, but even with semantics a high average in a small sample doesn't put him over Blackmon. 

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zips is weirdly high on this dude, hitting .293 on the season (wat) with 8 more home runs and 12 steals even though he only has 1 right now

all this, yet he's swinging at more balls out of the zone and making less contact both in and out of zone

and with a 30% k rate (projected ~20% ROS)

I don't get it lol

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9 minutes ago, herschel said:

batting third today between story and arenado.  is that new (i dont own him)?  gotta be one of the best spots to hit in baseball, especially when they are home....

Oh wow, when I looked at the box score, I just looked middle to end of lineup and figured he wasn’t playing

never thought of looking up there

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At least he is getting the chance to play.  Batted leadoff yesterday vs a LHP.

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25 minutes ago, strahanfan92 said:

7 games over last 7 days, 33 ABS, 7 hits for a smooth .212 and 0 HRs and 1 RBI.

Shoot even .232 over last 21 days with 1 HR, quite a bit underwhelming for what some us thought after the hot start.

 

Batting .279 and a 10 game current hitting streak is not quite a bit underwhelming. We might see some of his numbers go up when the weather warms up at Coors. I agree though he’s probably not an every day starter fantasy wise yet. 

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20 minutes ago, slowride said:

He has found that perfect niche where you cant start him, trade him, or drop him.  He stubbornly takes a roster spot as you plug him in on a slow day hoping for a 1 for 4 with a run.  Sad.

His hard hit rate (statcast) is terrible, exit velocity no better than average at best, his x stats for BA, SLG, wOBA are all terrible, his plate discipline is atrocious, and hes got 17% swinging strikes. You can certainly drop him, if you so choose.

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14 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

His hard hit rate (statcast) is terrible, exit velocity no better than average at best, his x stats for BA, SLG, wOBA are all terrible, his plate discipline is atrocious, and hes got 17% swinging strikes. You can certainly drop him, if you so choose.

 

By can't drop/can't trade I meant, if you drop him, someone will likely scoop him immediately, but they aren't willing to trade for him.  Certainly if you choose to drop him you are able to do so.

 

He is a tough drop imo given his MiLB performance and opportunity in Coors.  He is just now finally getting everyday ABs, and if you aren't dealing with a short bench then he should be worth a wait and see.  Even if it means skipping a streamer or two.  Hitting .280 and batting leadoff you have to assume the steals will begin to materialize.  There aren't many people on WWs matching his current value who also hold his potential upside.

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5 minutes ago, slowride said:

 

By can't drop/can't trade I meant, if you drop him, someone will likely scoop him immediately, but they aren't willing to trade for him.  Certainly if you choose to drop him you are able to do so.

 

He is a tough drop imo given his MiLB performance and opportunity in Coors.  He is just now finally getting everyday ABs, and if you aren't dealing with a short bench then he should be worth a wait and see.  Even if it means skipping a streamer or two.  Hitting .280 and batting leadoff you have to assume the steals will begin to materialize.  There aren't many people on WWs matching his current value who also hold his potential upside.

I dropped him in a keeper 2-3 weeks ago and no one has touched him. There is probably watchful eyes...

But this notion that someone might pick up a guy you drop is such a fallacy, if hes not producing at fantasy worthy level, who cares if an opponent pucks him up? What does that matter?

I love Coors hitters, but people tend to over value and over commit to players because of it. Thin air doesn't help if you have bad discipline and dont make contact... He needs to make a lot of improvements to be consistently productive.

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  • 2 weeks later...

So called 3rd best hitter on the Rockies now hitting 208 avg with a 512 ops over the past month, 260/744 on the season. 

You guys buying the statcast data and peripherals now? Or we going to revert back to blaming Bud Black? 😂

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