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Fantasy Baseball Resources (Sites, Tools, Podcasts, Books, etc.)


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  • 2 weeks later...
21 hours ago, billofwa said:

Is anyone who uses FantasyRundown having trouble accessing it the last couple of days?

I feel lost without it. I was trying to remember all the different sites this morning...

He is on twitter and said there has been a website issue. On friday he said he finally diagnosed the issue and hoping to fix it soon.

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
2 minutes ago, nlm said:

 

What is that? (no clue)

 

Rudy Gamble over at Razzball has a product to give a dollar value to every start.  Takes Steamer projections, park factors, lineups and other stuff.  It's part of the pay package but when you don't really have time to analyze all the starts to pick a streamer it can be a nice quick guide.  That said, it will give goofy ranks sometimes (openers) so its just a tool. But it's the only fantasy premium I pay for, as I think it is indespensible.  Also gives hitter daily values.  

 

You can also look at their free player page and see the game projection:

https://razzball.com/player/656970/Devin+Smeltzer/

 

 

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13 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

^  I'd rather go with my own take then look at something like that.  Pay for someone else's guess or guess yourself.  50/50 in the end.

 

I don't have time to research a guess!  Plus I'm pretty sure my guesses aren't 50-50, lol.  

 

In all seriousness, looking at lineups, park factors, pitcher trends etc to analyze a specific matchup can take a lot of time.  It does a good job assimilating all that stuff and then one can take that into account with one's guess.  

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Roster Resource has for quite a while been a go-to site for typical batting order, depth chart info, and now they're available at FanGraphs, with faster page loads, clickable player links that open their Fangraphs page, etc.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/

Just in time for players changing teams at the deadline!

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34 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

I think I've seen a few articles, mainly predicting the top 2 rounds though.

 

Here's my breakout predictions.

Breakouts, any hitter.

Busts, any pitcher.

 

Lol...thanks. I was able to locate this article about hitters:

http://thefantasyfix.com/fantasy-baseball/2020-fantasy-baseball-dynasty-targets-for-now-hitters/

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  • 3 months later...

I'm looking for some fantasy baseball reading to do over the holidays. A couple of books that are out right now are The Process 2020 and Fantasy Sports Boss 2020 Fantasy Baseball Early Offseason Draft Guide. Has anyone ever read either of these? If so, what were your thoughts on them?

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some websites are already providing projections.

 

razzball.com has started their position rankings with projections.

pitcherlist.com has been breaking down position players and pitchers team by team. some are done, some not yet. this includes in depth write up with best case and worst case.

 

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lengthy write up here about projections.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/fantasy-101-projections-and-benchmarks/

Quote

No matter who you ask, everyone agrees that draft preparation is one of the most important parts of a fantasy baseball season. Yes, a main part of preparation is knowing which players you are targeting and when to target them. But what happens when you miss out on your targets? What happens when the few specific players you want to build around are taken? By using a combination of projection systems and category benchmarks, you can fill in gaps during your draft based on what you expect you’ll need to come out ahead in each category.

Before we go any further, despite this article being in a series of articles titled Fantasy 101, this article is more of a 300-level elective as opposed to a core curriculum course. While preparing for drafts at the beginning of your fantasy career, knowing how to leverage projection systems and benchmarks will put you ahead of other starting players, but so will a careful study of ADP and fantasy baseball experts. Many of the skills covered in this article will help prepare you for deeper leagues or auctions with a little finessing. Some modicum of experience working within Excel or Google Sheets is a prerequisite for taking full advantage of what is covered in this article.

Projection Systems

 

Despite confidence to the contrary, we are all continuously learning what leads to success on the baseball field. While Sabermetrics has been growing for decades and we certainly know more than we used to, this game is still played by people who could over or under-perform their projections for a myriad of reasons that won’t be captured by a calculation.

That doesn’t mean that we will stop trying! The various projection systems out there (either in antiquity, in current use, or on the drawing board) are all attempts at inferential statistics – inferring the future from the past. Each projection system uses some form of historical baseball data to try and determine how a player may perform the next season.

For each system, you must accept there are assumptions made and outside forces at play. The parties putting together each system are making educated guesses about position eligibility and playing time based on MLB team roster construction and the perceived value (and injury risk) of each player. None will be exactly right (in fact, most hover somewhere near an R2 of 0.6), but they do help provide a fantasy manager some forward-looking assumptions to build a roster around. For those unfamiliar with R2, it is a -1 to 1 measure which describes how well the linear regression fits the data, where a stronger correlation is at the boundaries and it gets progressively weaker as you approach 0.

 

ATC Fangraphs Developed by Ariel Cohen, the ATC projection system is a machine that consolidates and weights other projection systems based on their historical accuracy. For instance, System A may be given a 20% weight for batter home runs, but only 5% for pitcher strikeouts. Ariel Cohen provides a primer on his system here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-atc-projection-system/
Depth Charts Fangraphs Developed by Fangraphs, the Depth Charts system is a blend of Steamer and ZiPS scaled by playing time expectations. The original article detailing the Depth Charts system is available here: https://library.fangraphs.com/depth-charts/
Marcel Baseball-Reference Developed by Tom Tango, this is the base system most players start with. Using the last 3 years of MLB data, weighted by proximity to the current year, Marcel calculates a regression towards the mean for each category. Age adjustments are applied. More details on Tango’s system are available here: http://tangotiger.net/marcel/
PECOTA Baseball Prospectus – Additional Cost The Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm is a proprietary system developed by Nate Silver while at Baseball Prospectus. There is a lot of secret sauce to the process, but in general, the system finds players with similar historical trends and projects a seasonal figure based on what those other players in history were able to do.
Pod Projecting X – Additional Cost The Pod projections are one of the several tools offered by Mike Podhorzer on the Projecting X website. If you are interested in the methods used to develop the Pod projections system, there is a Projecting X 2.0 ebook available for purchase.
Steamer Fangraphs Developed by Jared Cross, “Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers.” For more information about Steamer, stop here: http://m.mlb.com/glossary/projection-systems/steamer
The BAT Fangraphs Initially developed as a DFS projection system, Derek Carty from RotoGrinders implemented a seasonal projection from his original model. Per Carty, “THE BAT incorporates all the necessary basics, like park factors and platoon splits, plus many lesser-considered factors like air density and umpires to give you an edge on the competition.” Visit RotoGrinders for more details about The BAT: https://rotogrinders.com/marketplace/derek-carty-s-the-bat-projection-system-300
ZiPS Fangraphs

Developed by Dan Szymborski, “ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections.” Details about the ZiPS system are available here: http://m.mlb.com/glossary/projection-systems/szymborski-projection-system

 

Quote

Comparing the Systems

On this topic, I stand upon the shoulders of others. Mr. Cheatsheet and Fantasy Pros rank the effectiveness of each baseball projection system at the conclusion of each season. It’s important to know that the rankings for each system will fluctuate year-to-year, but there are general trends (e.g one system is historically better at pitching) you can discern.

Mr. Cheatsheet’s 2019 analysis can be found here: http://mrcheatsheet.com/2019/03/09/projection-analysis-2019/

Ariel Cohen’s take on 2018 projection system rankings is available here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2018-projection-systems-comparison-a-game-theory-approach/

FantasyPros 2018 projection system rankings are available now. The rankings for 2019 should come out in March if history holds. The 2018 article is here: https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/03/most-accurate-fantasy-baseball-projections-2018/

Which Projection System Is Best (For My Needs)

Considering the last section demonstrates that the accuracy of each system varies year-to-year and even position-by-position, I often find that ATC or Depth Charts are my two go-to projections (also helps that they are both free). ATC is a bit of a black box on how it chooses which assumptions to keep from each system, but the fact that it blends systems still helps rough out the edges from any one source. Depth Charts only uses two systems (Steamer and ZiPS), but you can plainly see the assumptions that it makes for the blend (e.g. playing time), so it helps assuage the fear of not knowing what is going on.

 

 

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I can tell you 1 resource that is formally dead (imo)...esp now that Klaw is gone...ESPN

Jeez, to even get to the MLB drop down for the home page you have to work down through the usually bigger sports AND the likes of:

Boxing

CFL- I think that is Canadian football

Chalk- no idea

College Sports...

eSports

F1

Golf

Little League World Series- almost apropos in a funny way

But the MLB is still in front of NASCAR, NBA 'G' League and NCAAW!!!

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